Aldermore Share Discussion Threads

[rastapastamasta] 29/3/2012 13:13

yes this is the key issue now - can costs be controlled and reduced as targeted?
we are due a quarterly update soon, and news about costs will determine the short term direction of the sp, IMHO.

[divinausa1] 29/3/2012 12:34

can't control?

everything i have read from the company they expect to

so why do you say "can't?"

[ukgeorge] 29/3/2012 12:21

yes but if they can't control cash costs, none of the above matters.

[divinausa1] 29/3/2012 11:52

and 3 years ago if you said that ALD will bring on another mine on line and double the output and price of gold will go up to $1600, but the share price will not have any rise they would think your nuts!

BUT THATS THE FACT...

[divinausa1] 29/3/2012 11:50

looks like its heading for a 3 year low....

hard to believe but the chart tells the sad story.

[sg31] 29/3/2012 09:43

It's not just Allied who have trouble with the natives...



The Port Moresby-based The National Newspaper reports landowners had set up a road block near the site, prompting Prime Minister Peter O'Neill to speculate about declaring a state of emergency. The decision to downgrade from a state of emergency came after a landowner meeting on Wednesday, during which it was reportedly agreed to remove the road block.

[divinausa1] 29/3/2012 01:15

Stealth Bottom Coming in Gold Stocks

[philo124] 26/3/2012 14:11

Gold Moving on US QE3?

[boadicea] 21/3/2012 14:21

rasta - I think the answer to your question probably lies in the past rather than the future.

[rastapastamasta] 19/3/2012 08:03

No longer on FTSE250/350.
Will it have any effect on price?

[boadicea] 16/3/2012 12:05

I think this will already have been anticipated - possibly over-anticipated judging by the price action this week.

[rastapastamasta] 16/3/2012 10:26

Certainly does juju - for now

what I don't know is what effect the exclusion from the FTSE250 will have. I know that the news is already out there, but presumably trackers etc can not sell while the share is still in the FTSE 250? i.e. there will be institutional selling from 16/3/12 exclusion date?

[juju44] 16/3/2012 10:03

well looks like £1 was indeed the bottom

[arja] 12/3/2012 14:37

strange stock as edging up when gold price falls ! maybe all the bad news was in the price.

[luminoso] 09/3/2012 22:21

agree xcap - potential is huge but PR seems a bit of a disaster at a local level and I am staying out for now too.

[enami] 08/3/2012 08:29

Excluded from FTSE250 Index as expected - effective close of business 16 March.

[xcap] 07/3/2012 18:43

made some money and I'm out but will sit on the sidelines. Still believe its potential is huge. GLA

[boadicea] 07/3/2012 14:45

Time-frame is too short to judge yet, but a rise to 155-160p region and formation of the right shoulder of an inverse h&s looks a possibility, even without specific news.
The descent to the recent low seems to have been a technically driven feature aggravated by the absence of willing buyers - until L&G arrived on the scene. A significant recovery only needs persistent selling to dry up if we have the likes of L&G willing to take up the odd parcel of loose stock. A positive share price response to just a little extra buying by them would then make their recent large purchase look like a clever move - especially if it could avoid ejection from the FT250.

[rastapastamasta] 07/3/2012 11:49

It's a 50/50 call isn't it?
Personally, with no production news expected until April I struggle to see share price continuing upwards.

[juju44] 07/3/2012 11:31

maybe but i think the sentiment here has changed

[boadicea] 07/3/2012 11:11

Bounce continuing so far today, also helped perhaps by the steadier pog ...

... but should we expect a double bottom to come?.

[xcap] 06/3/2012 07:21

good post boadicea and agree. They need to control the cash costs which are far too high and ensure they are down to below $850. If they do that (and I think it will take 2 quarters to achieve) the market will reward the management and the share price will overshoot 282p imho based on the future projected increase in production to over 200,000 ozs.
ALD up 2.5% down under, was over 3% at one point.

[boadicea] 06/3/2012 00:32

It's rather short on evaluation of the risk factors - actually not short but totally oblivious!
We know it's significantly undervalued but slipshod "analysis" like that completely fails to take account of the principal factors contributing to the recent gloom. Of course the market has probably over-reacted (as usual) and given rise to a golden buying opportunity on a balance of risk. Two years ago the target would have been very reasonable on the current output possibilities but more recent events have given rise to legitimate concerns including suspicions of sabotage at Simberi.
While equity risk in gold producers is still somewhat out of favour - most are undervalued in varying degrees imho - a ~20% discount to their target would not be out of order before applying a further 30% discount for geopolitical and execution risks.

Hence 282p x 0.8 x 0.7 = 158p

Speaking as a holder, I would be happy to get back to that figure and not expect to get much further until a number of factors are clarified (risk not materialising, costs reducing, 'accidents' avoided etc) and the company produces figures to prove the point. I guess that will take us well into 2013 at best with fingers tightly crossed in the interim.

However, it is encouraging to see L&G increasing their position. One hopes they have done their homework thoroughly and that patience will be rewarded.

[divinausa1] 06/3/2012 00:02

in the past it has had big gains in a short time frame 25p 50p, need one now....

[philo124] 05/3/2012 19:59

Great 282p price target.