Aldermore Share Discussion Threads

[rastapastamasta] 29/2/2012 13:45

Next FTSE250 quarterly review 7/3/12:



Likely to be conducted before news of ALD's Q1 performance.

Some II's will automatically sell (e.g. index trackers etc) if ALD leaves the FTSE250

[woozle1] 29/2/2012 12:30

As Buffett says, buy when others are fearful and there is uncertainty. It's probably getting kicked out of the FTSE 250, which should drive the price down but history suggests that relegated stocks (assuming the balance sheet is OK and ALD's seems fine with just a little debt and plenty of PPE) perform strongly in the months after they've been kicked out of an index.

DYOR
Woozle

[xcap] 29/2/2012 07:02

problem is that I don't think there's another RNS due until the reporting of the production of the March quarter, and that will not be until mid to late April! with no news how does this affect the sp?

[xcap] 29/2/2012 06:52

Agreed THB. Odd what's happening down under on ASX, ALD down again yet MGO up 3c (major Cu co in PNG, going to be huge)
interesting situation here

[thehardestbutton] 29/2/2012 04:28

This is why the PNG blog is such a useful mine ('cuse the pun) of information. Though it reports constant troubles for miners in PNG you only have to look at a map of the country to see that local troubles for Newcrest would have zero impact on Allied Gold. It would only be if the government were to start threatening existing contracts and all the noise coming from their suggests they know that such a move could cut off further investment and scare off potential new entrants.

The price is way too low on this stock from fundamentals and all the technicals suggest that as well (the RSI is very low) - either the board is withholding information on poor production levels (which I find unlikely given their previous openness) or this is going to fly when the production rates are announced for Q1.

Interesting to note as well that the current downward trajectory in the price is from low volumes. However I notice increased activity when the price dips which suggests someone is perhaps accumulating in the background (though I have no direct evidence for this - just a hunch).

Keeping a very close eye on how things develop

[divinausa1] 29/2/2012 00:55

rastapastamasta - 28 Feb'12 - 16:20 - 99 of 102

Nearly ten years ago I was working in Cains, Queensland, which was the airport in and out of PNG for Ozzy miners. They were telling similar stories then. I think it has always been like this in PNG.
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exactly and it will always be that way, at the end of the day Allied is a big employer in PNG they cannot have their cake and eat it!

[xcap] 28/2/2012 17:28

thanks Polaris, and yes I did!

[polaris] 28/2/2012 16:35

xcap - you probably used a greater than sign. ADVFN in its wonderful wisdom assumed it was a HTML tag...happened to me on more than one occasion.

[xcap] 28/2/2012 16:30

don't know what happened to the rest of my post, if filtered totally understand and please be assured I was not de-ramping. I am not in but have been watching and may buy (along with several other stocks) although concerned with the events and the unknown here

[rastapastamasta] 28/2/2012 16:20

Nearly ten years ago I was working in Cains, Queensland, which was the airport in and out of PNG for Ozzy miners. They were telling similar stories then. I think it has always been like this in PNG.

[pineapple1] 28/2/2012 16:11

I know a guy who is building a road out in PNG for i think Newcrest Mining.
Last time i spoke to him they had to stop construction as there was a fair bit of un rest with the locals.Not sure if he,s back on the job yet but perhaps the declines here are indicative of the problems out there. at the moment.
Its a dodgy place as they have armed gaurds escorting them generally

[rastapastamasta] 28/2/2012 14:18

Good point xcap
However, targets for 2012 are increased production at both mines, and decreased costs at both mines.

[xcap] 28/2/2012 13:49

problem is that mines are not running at optimal efficiency. Cash costs > $1000 presently, and until the market sees them down to targetted levels of

[rastapastamasta] 28/2/2012 12:37

divinausa1
I prefer to build in some potential upside
I'm off to do the sums at 1.5 mines and POG $1500
might repeat the exercise at 1 mines same POG

[divinausa1] 28/2/2012 12:33

He urged MP Boka Konda to look at 49/51 production sharing arrangement, with landowners taking up 49 per cent with the support of the Government.
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its already in the price at this level even if it comes about, the share price back to 2009 levels when pog was $800 and they had one mine....

now say they have 1 and a half mine's and POG at $1800....

[rastapastamasta] 28/2/2012 12:15

I know fat prohets were tipping this around christmas time.
Anyone know if they have set a stop loss?

[aishah] 28/2/2012 11:22

Very close to TMI stop-loss of 112p

[rastapastamasta] 28/2/2012 08:35

Support seems to be failing:

[xcap] 28/2/2012 07:10

ALD down nearly 5% down under
Do we know whether the proposed law, if enacted, is retrospective?!!

[super ego] 26/2/2012 17:53

Rastapastamasta,

This blog on PNG deserves to go in the header:



February 25, 2012

Mining Act to be reviewed

The Mining Act will be reviewed with the view to increase landowner participation in mining projects in the country, Deputy Prime Minister Belden Namah has promised says the Post Courier.

Speaking at a meeting in Parliament on Wednesday in which Department of Mining officials made presentations to highlight impediments the industry would face if the Boka Konda Bill became a law, Mr Namah led a chorus of calls from MPs and other participants at the meeting for increased landowner participation.

Mr Namah said he would support the bill and called on proponents and critics of the bill to work together so the final form that goes to Parliament is acceptable to all the players.

He urged MP Boka Konda to look at 49/51 production sharing arrangement, with landowners taking up 49 per cent with the support of the Government.

He said the issue of exploration and sunk costs should not be considered impediments, as that would be shared by all partners.

[divinausa1] 23/2/2012 23:26

early doors down under up 10%

[juju44] 23/2/2012 10:55

could be bargain time