Aeorema Communications Share Discussion Threads

[clocktower] 29/1/2016 13:03

I am very patience ramas and as I am so young in mind I have time on my side, it is much like sitting and waiting for a fish to bite and take the bait but knowing that when you strike you have a fair chance of hooking the prize but there are times that they take hook line and sinker and you loose one gear.Gear up, bait up and try again. :-)

[ramas] 29/1/2016 12:44

I suspect AEO will not issue forecasts as they will become hostages to fortune, it's just not possible to do accurately for mentions raised by other posters. What you can do is take a judgement based on the historical performance. it's still a tough call but what you can deduce with a fair degree of certainty is that they will make a profit and in all likelihood distribute those profits to shareholders. Take the 3 year average and you get 3-4p of earnings , add in a margin of safety and discount by whatever you think there is in terms of a business slowdown .... I'll settle for 3p on a 15% slowdown , strip out the cash/listing and you have a pe of 2 or thereabouts ...... I say that's a more than adequate discount .... THIS COMPANY IS MAKING MONEY !!CT - you might get your 20p but it will need someone to drop about 150k onto the open market and you will need to move very fast because you won't be the only one after them

[clocktower] 29/1/2016 09:47

RTI - Westfield,30,000 shares comes down to one and the same in my book and I stated that in effect above.

Ot, It is should not take former traders/investors in the company to try squeeze info from the company, and to be fair to them why should they if your not currently a stakeholder. They issue updated forecasts when things are improving as you pointed out but have not done so will the last accounts. All we have is a few woolly words about outlook, no numbers.

I do not hide my aim OT - it is to purchase this stock once again sub 20p as well all here are aware.

Good Luck with your aim to see the share price much much higher but my money sits and waits, if I miss out so be it.

[old thumper] 29/1/2016 09:29

CT, "Remember - RTI got out last year bar 30k shares and still sits on the board."

Incorrect, in fact Westfield now hold the 30,000 and if you look at a chart the sale of 270,000 didn't too much damage and had recovered within a month.

Please email the company and request a forecast as no one here are able to provide one, however I suspect you don't really want one as uncertainty is your aim :-)

[clocktower] 29/1/2016 08:38

Yes PJ1 - That is the issue that OT has in effect highlighted - last year they repeatedly provided changing and improving forecasts in H2 because it seems they were reliant on short term contracts that can either be picked up here and there or be cancelled without any serious penalties, other than for AEO stakeholders.

If they had been able to provide a forecast saying that turnover and profits were expected to be in line with last years, then they would be more credible but this year they are more likely imo to either says that they have been unable to maintain current contracts or fail to pick up sufficient profitable ones due to the climate - not due to poor judgement. If things turn out better than I expect, then full credit to them and those that stick with the team.

Remember - RTI got out last year bar 30k shares and still sits on the board.

[pj 1] 29/1/2016 08:20

Maybe the Co cannot get 12 months turnover visibility? Any thoughts?

[old thumper] 29/1/2016 04:57

CT, "One problem is that they provide no forward forecasts - because they are unable too because of the nature of the business I expect."

You will find there were 2 trading updates last year between the interims and the finals (feb+may). We were awash with info last year.

Let's see if your plan to install negative thoughts in others but at the end of the day the only thing that controls the share price is the figures and the balance of buyers and sellers.

Hopefully the finals won't be too different from last year which means a 11% divi and a 7.7PE, cheap at a current share price of 27p.

[ramas] 28/1/2016 19:29

Agreed Mark their style is to take a cautious stance and indeed last year was a bad h1 and a good h2. Earnings visibility has always been the challenge for AEO and reason why the shares have such a low multiple which I think is too harsh.

[clocktower] 28/1/2016 19:22

Mark100 , The past no prayer can bring again the future cheats the scheming brain.

[mark1000] 28/1/2016 18:53

On the basis of history I would expect to see a 300K profit and a 3p dividend. Time will tell.

[mark1000] 28/1/2016 18:53

SORRY DUPLICATE.

[pj 1] 28/1/2016 16:05

ramas. Its not all negative, the Co. is still on my watchlist for a reason. If I was totally negative then it wouldn't be!

[clocktower] 28/1/2016 14:40

OT - At the moment I have no questions as they themselves seem to be unable to forecast the business and as of this year even my portfolio that is not in cash is looking very red, and that goes for all my blue chips as well. Not a pretty picture - turned most to cash in 2015 but not as much as I clearly should have.So not ready to get my fingers burnt yet.So my forecasts were no better and they turned out to be pretty poor even then, as I was not short on any stock at the start of the year and I did not expect to see RBS and LLOY where they are now.

Good Luck though but I would like to buy here sub 20p as I said.Maybe on a bad day! :-)

It is frustration sitting on ones hands except for small dabbles here and there waiting for the market to settle.

[old thumper] 28/1/2016 14:24

CT, No good just moaning here, forward your questions to the BoD and keep us updated please.

[ramas] 28/1/2016 13:54

Hi David , if needed I'll be happy to provide the bullish view to balance all this negativity, have attended the last 3 agms

[clocktower] 28/1/2016 13:37

One problem is that they provide no forward forecasts - because they are unable too because of the nature of the business I expect.

Another issue, is that while they say the new website has brought business, it looks stale and is not updated sufficiently - it not the best around imo.

The re-furbishing of the offices might have distracted them and I guess they were trying to give the impression that they were buzzing, when in fact contracts were being lost and cut backs taking place.

They may or may not have a five year plan - as they talked out having one but have never outlined it. All a bit woolly headed.

The money in the bank can drain away quickly if they have to spend to maintain market share.

Second half as they say is the better of the two but will they even make a profit if they pay themselves this year?

[pj 1] 28/1/2016 12:51

ok should have been able to remember that!

[davidosh] 28/1/2016 12:48

david at melloevents.com should work if you need it

[pj 1] 28/1/2016 12:41

OK. Ive DM'd my email address via Twitter, if you can respond to that Ill reply more fully after 3pm ish when Im at a proper Computer!

[davidosh] 28/1/2016 12:38

PJ1....You are welcome to email me. I am only just getting to know AEO so all background info very useful.D

[pj 1] 28/1/2016 12:23

Yes David I accept your point, Micro to me is below £10m ish.

I attended the 2014 AGM along with ramas and old thumper (does he still hold?) and have spoken to the Bod by phone a few times.

My views differ form the regular posters here and are well documented on here some time ago, so it is perhaps unfair 18 months later to drag those thoughts up again on here.

However happy to summarise via email or phone etc etc if it helps. Cheers pj

[davidosh] 28/1/2016 12:14

Have any of you met management already or been to Agms etc ? Have they ever presented anywhere to investors ?

[davidosh] 28/1/2016 12:05

PJ1....What do you class as a micro cap ? I am in lots of small caps and many are below £50m market cap and even sub £10m can be interesting but the cost of listing has to show some real benefit and you need to know management and larger holders are in line with needs of smaller holders. The dividend returns so long as the business holds up give me some confidence here.

I have bought a very small holding here just now and would like to meet the management and possibly get them to present at Mello at some point.

[ramas] 28/1/2016 09:50

I'd say AEO has been savaged by its slightly disappointing results .. The price is where it is because you have 20p of support, covered by its non business's specific assets. AEO is valued at effectively £600k that in all likelihood / worst case will deliver £200k pretax profits this year and distribute all profits via a dividend assuming the cash remains at the circa £1.5m level representing approx 3 years worth of support in the event of a protracted downturn in business. I suspect there are lots of potential buyers waiting to buy should the price go below 20p myself included where I would be prepared to break my own stock allocation discipline