Italian Referendum Poses Test for ECB
04 December 2016 - 9:40AM
Dow Jones News
By Tom Fairless
FRANKFURT--Sunday's Italian referendum comes at a critical
juncture for the European Central Bank.
The eurozone's monetary authority is preparing for a major
meeting on Thursday, where it will decide on the future of its
EUR1.7 trillion ($1.8 trillion) bond-purchase program, due to
expire in March.
The ECB's bond purchases have acted as a fire blanket for the
19-nation currency union during a year of political upsets,
cushioning the economy and keeping government bond yields in check
in the face of such unexpected political events as the Brexit vote
in June and Donald Trump's election victory last month.
Surprise is less likely this time, since polls have given an
edge to a possibly disruptive "no" outcome in Italy. But this vote
is taking place within the eurozone's borders, at a sensitive time
for the currency area's third-largest member. Italy's banks are
struggling under a heavy burden of nonperforming loans and several
of them urgently need to raise capital. Electoral evidence that the
government is struggling to impose its will could scare away
investors.
A "no" vote would therefore play into the ECB's policy
discussions on Thursday, European officials and investors said,
potentially heightening the perceived need to keep buying EUR80
billion a month of bonds, even as some policy makers press Mr.
Draghi to send a clear signal on how and when the so-called
quantitative-easing program will be wound down.
"The ECB might chew on the risk that a 'no' vote delays
absolutely necessary repair work on Italy's banks," said Martin
Lück, chief German investment strategist at BlackRock Inc. "It
wants to make sure that doesn't happen."
To cope with any immediate market volatility following the
referendum, the ECB could temporarily tilt its QE purchases toward
more Italian government debt. Such action, which could be taken
without a formal decision by the bank's policy makers, would lend
support to the Italian bond market going into next year. The
central bank has pledged in any case to front-load its bond
purchases before the holidays.
The ECB's bond purchases, however, aren't designed to prop up
individual countries, but to help meet the central bank's mandate
of keeping inflation just below 2% across the 19-nation eurozone,
by lowering borrowing rates to boost lending and growth.
Any appearance of a bailout for Italy could be political
dynamite in countries such as Germany, where senior officials have
been pressing the ECB to start winding down stimulus measures.
"The ECB cannot afford to systematically deviate from the rules
of the bond-purchase program," said Jörg Krämer, chief economist at
Commerzbank in Frankfurt. "That would create the impression that QE
is the same as Outright Monetary Transactions," a controversial,
potentially unlimited bond-buying program created by the ECB in
2012 but that hasn't been implemented.
Still, the ECB's mandate is broad. Anything that affects the
bloc's EUR10 trillion economy, from an earthquake to an election,
must be considered by the bank's policy makers to keep on
course.
Mr. Lück said if bond spreads in the coming days were to rise in
an extreme manner--an outcome he considers unlikely--"Mr. Draghi
might hint at the existence of OMT" at his news conference on
Thursday. To activate that program, Italy would first need to
formally seek an EU bailout.
Even if the short-term market impact is limited, the Italian
vote kicks off a crowded political calendar in Europe. Germany,
France and the Netherlands will all hold major elections next year,
with populists ascendant in each.
Investors are concerned that Italy's referendum "marks the start
of a storm coming to land in Europe," said Alex Dryden, global
market strategist at J.P. Morgan in London. "People are battening
down the hatches ahead of that."
Write to Tom Fairless at tom.fairless@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 04, 2016 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT)
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