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21/11/2014
15:55
altin para: HTTPS://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/goldman-1000-111920141 Wednesday, 11/19/2014 09:30 $1000 seems the target, says this ex-PhD mining stock analyst... CHEN LIN writes the popular stock newsletter What Is Chen Buying? What Is Chen Selling?, published and distributed by Taylor Hard Money Advisors Inc. While a doctoral candidate in aeronautical engineering at Princeton, Lin found his investment strategies were so profitable that he put his PhD on the back burner. He employs a value-oriented approach and often demonstrates excellent market timing due to his exceptional technical analysis. Here Lin speaks to The Gold Report about the recent low in the gold price, the impact on gold miners, and whether the short sellers are done pushing it lower just yet... The Gold Report: You've discussed in your newsletter Goldman Sachs' plan to "push gold down to $1000 per ounce." How do you know such a plan exists? Chen Lin: I am not a big fan of conspiracy theories, but Goldman published a report in early September calling for $1000 per ounce gold by the end of 2014. As I saw it, this call was quite aggressive. Goldman will lead and probably has been leading a group shorting gold aggressively. Kitco has published a report arguing that should gold fall to $1000 per ounce, this would be catastrophic for most gold miners. The shorts, unfortunately, probably don't care about gold mining companies and the jobs of those who work for them. They just want to make money. If the gold miners go under, they'll be very happy. TGR: We've heard about these short attacks for at least a year and a half. How long can they keep winning this game? Chen Lin: That's a very good question. There is, however, another reason why gold has declined in price: its reverse correlation with the US Dollar. The Dollar has recently been strong, so gold has been weak. And the shorts are making money on this. I see the fall of gold from $1900 per ounce to be a healthy correction. This creates buying opportunities for long-term investors. As I told my subscribers, I started to underweight gold and gold miners back in 2011-2012. I hope my subscribers took my advice and have survived this nuclear winter of gold miners. We continue to look for the bottom. This year, in particular, I have increased my efforts to visit gold mines and meet with gold mining company executives, so I can be prepared when the gold market turns. TGR: The US Federal Reserve is tapering quantitative easing (QE), but just recently the Bank of Japan announced an enormous QE plan. Shouldn't this be very good for gold? Chen Lin: It should have been, but what happened was that Japan's QE lowered the value of the Yen and strengthened the Dollar. So investors sold gold on the QE news. It's a paper-market game. All these funds don't own gold at all. They're basically borrowing gold to short it. They borrow from some other place, maybe the central government, maybe from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), whatever, I do not know. This game will end, but the question is when. TGR: What are we hearing about physical gold sales in Asia? Chen Lin: Physical gold buying has been quite strong in China, although not as strong as last year, partly because China's economy has been slowing down. Gold buying in India has been very strong, and the Indian economy is actually picking up. These are the two largest gold-consuming countries. I believe that eventually physical demand will gradually absorb all the shorts' positions. Then the gold market will turn. China bought about 1,000 tonnes of gold last year. The US claims to have about 8,000 tonnes gold. It's in Europe where there's a large position. So this turnaround will take a few years. TGR: On November 7, gold fell to a low of $1130 per ounce. Then it rose $47 for the rest of the day to finish at $1177 per ounce, a 3.15% increase. Was what happened that day a one-off, or does it perhaps suggest the bottom has been reached? Chen Lin: I wish I could tell gold investors the good news that everyone is waiting for, but I'm not so sure. From the macroeconomic point of view, the US Dollar will likely be strong for the next two to three years because the US economy is one of the strongest, if not the strongest, in the world. This year, the shorts may not be able to push gold all the way to $1000 per ounce ahead of Christmas and the Chinese New Year, which is a very strong gold consuming season, but they may come back again next year in the summer. TGR: What do you make of the talk that American sanctions against Russia have pushed Russia into an alliance with China and that this alliance plans to create a new reserve currency to rival the US Dollar? Chen Lin: I don't think Russia and China together could create a currency to rival the US Dollar. Sanctions and the drop in the oil price have pushed Russia toward China. I don't think they will become allies; their systems are too different, and they are historic rivals. But they will be friendlier. TGR: Gold heading toward $1000 per ounce has resulted already in decreased production, and this decrease will become significantly greater over time. Shouldn't this result in a significantly higher gold price? Chen Lin: Over the long term it will. In the short term, however, there's a large quantity of gold in storage. Annual production is minimal compared to stored gold. TGR: Do we really have any idea how much gold exists? If the world's gold is endlessly loaned out and rehypothecated, is this a shell game that can run and run? Chen Lin: I don't know how much gold really exists. Many people put money in ETFs, which may not own gold. But most investors don't regard gold as a long-term investment; they regard it as a trading vehicle. This situation won't change until the world recognizes gold as currency. TGR: The silver price has been falling. Isn't silver supposed to be insulated somewhat because of its use in industrial applications? Chen Lin: About 50% of silver is used in industrial applications. At the current price, most of the silver miners are not making money. That blows my mind. But silver dropped to a few Dollars in late 2008-2009, so I can see that silver could now potentially drop further. Silver will continue to be produced because it is mined mostly as a byproduct of base metals operations. If silver drops to single digits again, it's the buying opportunity of our lifetime. TGR: Tell me why you're so keen on platinum group metals (PGMs). Chen Lin: It's a very interesting situation. There is very strong physical demand. China has a huge pollution problem. In China, only Beijing has strict car emission standards comparable with those of the US and the European Union. The surrounding provinces don't. So if China is really serious about reducing pollution, which I believe it is, all Chinese provinces will have to upgrade their emission standards. When and if that happens, I'm not sure we have enough PGMs to upgrade the cars. TGR: You're talking about catalytic converters here, right? Chen Lin: Right. That's where most of the palladium and much of the platinum goes. And the demand will come not just from China. According to the World Health Organization, the world's most polluted city is in India. There is a supply/demand problem looming. Right now, both platinum and palladium are trading at a deficit. With the strike in South Africa, investment will go down. With the troubles in the Russian economy, investment will go down. Production will not keep up with demand for the foreseeable future. PGM prices have been hit very hard, just like gold. But this is due mostly to fund or ETF selloffs. Some 50% of Comex's platinum position was sold in September. That tells you a lot of funds are really in trouble. Along with energy going down, I believe a lot of funds cannot survive 2014. Even those that do will see a lot of redemption. It won't be a question of investors wanting to get out; they'll be forced out. I see lots of opportunity ahead. Just as with gold, the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015 could see a bottom in PGMs. TGR: The bear market in gold stocks started in April 2011, 31 months ago. Since then, we've heard many times that the bottom is in, but it never is. With the end of year upon us, could we see one last flurry of panic selling? Chen Lin: I think there's a possibility of final selloff to flush out all the weak hands and all the leveraged positions. But it's hard to say. Sometimes bottoms form that way. Sometimes bottoms form without people paying notice. Sometimes we get round bottoms and sometimes V-shaped bottoms. One thing for certain, as I mentioned earlier, I'm spending a lot more time visiting mines and meeting with mining company executives to be ready when the bottom comes.
28/12/2014
20:42
altin para: Why you should buy gold sovereigns 21/05/2014 At MoneyWeek, we’re long-standing fans of investing in gold. We think it’s a great way to provide insurance against any future financial crisis. Or inflation. If you want a truly diversified portfolio, invest some of your assets in gold. Granted, the gold price will move up and down in the future, but one day it will probably pass the inflation-adjusted high of $2,400/oz set in 1980. How should you invest in gold? Trouble is, if you’ve decided to invest in gold, you have a further decision to make. You’ve got to decide how you’re going to invest in gold. There are lots of different options. You could invest in a gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) – a fund that does nothing but hold gold. Or buy shares in gold-mining companies. Or buy gold bars or coins. You could also choose to invest in semi-numismatic coins. These are coins that aren’t just valuable for their gold content. The coins also appeal to collectors who are interested in coins and banknotes. Just as it’s a good idea to diversify your portfolio across a wide range of assets including equities and bonds, it may also be a good idea to diversify your gold holdings across two or three types of gold investment. Having eggs in various gold baskets is probably the most sensible and prudent strategy. As part of this mix, older gold coins should be looked at. Classic European and world gold coinage is an often overlooked, but extremely important sector in today’s gold market. These coins are rare which means they have more potential to appreciate in price – yet, they can often be bought at bullion prices. Crucially, you can also save tax by investing in gold. Gold bullion and some gold coins are exempt from VAT, whilst post-1837 British sovereigns and Britannia coins are exempt from Capital Gains Tax (CGT). That’s because these post-1837 sovereigns and Britannias are legal tender. If you’re wondering which coins are exempt from VAT, the rules are a little complex. If a coin is bought as a investment in gold bullion, then it should normally be exempt from VAT. However, if a coin is sold for more than 180% of its gold-value content, it’s clearly attractive as a collector’s item and is then subject to VAT. Often the price of gold coins is slightly higher than modern gold bullion, but these coins offer many advantages. They’re often scarce, and can have aesthetic value as well as historical significance. When you look at semi-numismatic gold coins, the British sovereign (originally the one pound coin) is the most widely traded. There is constant and excellent liquidity in most countries in the world. For the investor looking for slight leverage to the gold price with the potential for the premium (numismatic value) to rise, British sovereigns are a good way to invest in gold. History of the British gold sovereign The first British gold sovereigns were minted more than 500 years ago. They were minted under Tudor king Henry VII in 1489. The current design type with Saint George slaying a dragon on the reverse and the monarch on the front was introduced nearly 200 years ago in 1816 under George III. The sovereign was minted almost continuously from that date until 1932 when Britain went off the gold standard. British sovereign ‘kings’ minted during the reigns of Edward VII and George V are probably the most widely owned and recognised pre-1933 gold coins. In 1816, the British gold sovereign as we know it today was first introduced, and as the British Empire expanded under Queen Victoria during the 1800s, this coin came to be the world’s most widely distributed gold coin. Minted originally in London, the sovereign came to be minted all over the world as Australia and South Africa came to be large gold producers. Mints in Pretoria, Bombay, Ottawa, Melbourne, Sydney and Perth minted thousands of sovereigns during the late 1800s and early 1900s. The design of Saint George astride his brave steed, slaying the dragon, is common to the reverse of all variations of the coin. Gold sovereigns: conclusion It is estimated that only 1% of all gold sovereigns that have ever been minted are still in collectible condition. It is this relative rarity in relation to bullion coins and bars that leads to leverage whereby, in gold bull markets, the value of these coins increases by more that the actual price of gold. Unlike paper investments or speculations, British gold sovereigns have a real and permanent tangible value. Therefore, they offer two ways to build wealth. They can offer the best of bullion and numismatics in one investment. They contain the intrinsic security of bullion or precious metal in a pure form and can also offer additional profit potential due to their aesthetic and historical appeal. A small allocation of British gold sovereigns can be a useful component of a diversified gold portfolio. HTTP://moneyweek.com/why-you-should-buy-british-gold-sovereigns-16088/?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=Why+You+Should+Buy+British+Gold+Sovereigns&utm_content=cnnmoney&utm_campaign=gold
13/9/2014
16:39
peterbarnes35: The Cobden centre. A difficult question By Alasdair Macleod, on 13 September 14 In a radio interview recently* I was asked a question to which I could not easily give a satisfactory reply: if the gold market is rigged, why does it matter? I have no problem delivering a comprehensive answer based on a sound aprioristic analysis of how rigging markets distorts the basis of economic calculation and why a properly functioning gold market is central to all other financial prices. The difficulty is in answering the question in terms the listeners understand, bearing in mind I was told to assume they have very little comprehension of finance or economics. I did not as they say, want to go there. But it behoves those of us who argue the economics of sound money to try to make the answer as intelligible as possible without sounding like a committed capitalist and a conspiracy theorist to boot, so here goes. Manipulating the price of gold ultimately destabilises the financial system because it is the highest form of money. This is why nearly all central banks retain a holding. The fact we don’t use it as money in our daily business does not invalidate its status. Rather, gold is subject to Gresham’s Law, which famously states bad money drives out the good. We would rather pay for things in government-issue paper currency and hang on to gold for a rainy day. As money, it is on the other side of all asset prices. In other words stocks, bonds and property prices can be expected to rise measured in gold when the gold price falls and vice-versa. This relationship is often muddled by other factors, the most obvious one being changing levels of confidence in paper currencies against which gold is normally priced. However, with bond yields today at record lows and equities at record highs this relationship is apparent today. Another way to describe this relationship is in terms of risk. Banks which dominate asset markets become complacent about risk because they are greedy for profit. This leads to banks competing with one another until they end up ignoring risk entirely. It happened very obviously with the American banking crisis six years ago until house prices suddenly collapsed, threatening to take the whole financial system down. In common with all financial bubbles everyone ignored risk. History provides many other examples. Therefore, gold is unlike other assets because a rising gold price reflects an increasing perception of general financial risk, ensuring downward pressure on other financial asset prices. So while the big banks are making easy money ignoring risks in equity and bond markets, they will not want their party spoiled by warning signs from a rising gold price. This is a long way from proof that the gold market is manipulated. But the big banks, and we must include central banks which are obviously keen to maintain financial confidence, have the motive and the means. And if they have these they can be expected to take the opportunity. So why does it matter if the gold price is rigged? A freely-determined gold price is central to ensuring that reality and not financial bubbles guides us in our financial and economic activities. Suppressing the gold price is rather like turning off a fire alarm because you can’t stand the noise.
05/9/2014
22:10
yikyak: A difficult question By Alasdair Macleod Posted 05 September 2014 In a radio interview recently* I was asked a question to which I could not easily give a satisfactory reply: if the gold market is rigged, why does it matter? I have no problem delivering a comprehensive answer based on a sound aprioristic analysis of how rigging markets distorts the basis of economic calculation and why a properly functioning gold market is central to all other financial prices. The difficulty is in answering the question in terms the listeners understand, bearing in mind I was told to assume they have very little comprehension of finance or economics. I did not as they say, want to go there. But it behoves those of us who argue the economics of sound money to try to make the answer as intelligible as possible without sounding like a committed capitalist and a conspiracy theorist to boot, so here goes. Manipulating the price of gold ultimately destabilises the financial system because it is the highest form of money. This is why nearly all central banks retain a holding. The fact we don't use it as money in our daily business does not invalidate its status. Rather, gold is subject to Gresham's Law, which famously states bad money drives out the good. We would rather pay for things in government-issue paper currency and hang on to gold for a rainy day. As money, it is on the other side of all asset prices. In other words stocks, bonds and property prices can be expected to rise measured in gold when the gold price falls and vice-versa. This relationship is often muddled by other factors, the most obvious one being changing levels of confidence in paper currencies against which gold is normally priced. However, with bond yields today at record lows and equities at record highs this relationship is apparent today. Another way to describe this relationship is in terms of risk. Banks which dominate asset markets become complacent about risk because they are greedy for profit. This leads to banks competing with one another until they end up ignoring risk entirely. It happened very obviously with the American banking crisis six years ago until house prices suddenly collapsed, threatening to take the whole financial system down. In common with all financial bubbles everyone ignored risk. History provides many other examples. Therefore, gold is unlike other assets because a rising gold price reflects an increasing perception of general financial risk, ensuring downward pressure on other financial asset prices. So while the big banks are making easy money ignoring risks in equity and bond markets, they will not want their party spoiled by warning signs from a rising gold price. This is a long way from proof that the gold market is manipulated. But the big banks, and we must include central banks which are obviously keen to maintain financial confidence, have the motive and the means. And if they have these they can be expected to take the opportunity. So why does it matter if the gold price is rigged? A freely-determined gold price is central to ensuring that reality and not financial bubbles guides us in our financial and economic activities. Suppressing the gold price is rather like turning off a fire alarm because you can't stand the noise. *File on 4: BBC Radio4 due to be broadcast on 23 September at 8.00pm UK-time and repeated on 28 September at 5.00pm.
22/7/2015
13:17
irnbru2: Gold hit five-year lows on Monday. Just when you thought it couldn’t get much worse, it has. Today we consider the two big events of the past week and we ask: “What next?” Annihilation in New York, shenanigans in Shanghai In the early hours of Monday morning, with Europe sleeping, America still on its weekend and Japan on holiday, somebody sold 22 tonnes of gold. To put that number in some context, that’s just under 1% of annual global production. They didn’t sell it in Shanghai, or Hong Kong, or Australia, where the markets were busy. They sold it in New York on the COMEX. It was 9:29am in Perth, 2:29am in London, and still Sunday – 9:29pm – in New York. Markets at this time on Sunday evening are described as ‘thinly traded’, because nobody’s at work. Yet somebody decided to sell almost 1% of all the gold the entire world produces in a year. They sold it in just four seconds. There was an immediate reaction in Shanghai and a further five tonnes were sold. The first wave of selling took the price from $1,130 per ounce to $1,100. Then trading was halted for 20 seconds. There was a slight rebound, then another wave of selling took the price down to $1,070. It all happened in little more than 30 seconds. Over the course of the night, some 57 tonnes were sold in Shanghai and New York. On Monday the price recovered a little, back to about $1,100. But the miners fell by around 10% in a single day. Barrick, the world’s largest producer, fell 15%, and Newmont fell 12%. For three weeks out of the last four, gold has been hit hard in Sunday night/Monday morning trading. While the Greek panic was on, gold opened higher, only for it to be walloped. This time, gold got whacked when it was already down. At first glance it seems someone with deep pockets wants the price down. It might be a government or central bank conspiracy, as some suggest. It might (as I find more probable) be speculative funds of some kind shorting gold – trying to get stops hit when markets are quiet. It might, simply, be the consequence of margin calls in China – its plummeting stockmarket forcing the sale of all assets, much as we experienced in 2008. The big kahuna that turned out to be a damp squib. This action followed the big news out of China last week – the announcement of China’s official reserves. These were last announced in 2009 – 1,054 tonnes – making it the world’s seventh largest gold owner. Last week China declared 1,658 tonnes. Since 2009 China has produced more than 2,300 tonnes – averaging over 400 tonnes a year in (mostly) state-owned mines – to become the world’s largest producer. It has imported 3,414 tonnes from Hong Kong. And just under 9,000 tonnes (of which the Hong Kong gold makes up about a third) of physical gold have been withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). In other words, over 10,000 tonnes of gold have made their way to China. And it has barely exported an ounce. Its government has even actively encouraged its citizens to own gold, and demand now stands at well in excess of 1,000 tonnes a year (that number may fall this year after the losses on the stockmarket). Annual global production, to put that all in context, is 2,600 tonnes. The hope among gold aficionados was that China’s next announcement about its gold would be considerably larger than the 1,658 tonnes it announced last week. If it had announced 2,500 tonnes, that would have made it the world’s third-largest holder after the US and Germany. A (what seemed) entirely possible 3,400 tonnes would have put it ahead of Germany in second. Some were even hoping that the number would come in above America’s 8,133 tonnes. Naive though that may seem, given the numbers above, it is not beyond all possibility. But China’s gold – at 1,658 tonnes – accounts for little more than 1.5% of its foreign exchange reserves; America’s counts for 74%, and Germany’s 68%. Even if China’s gold were to account for just 5% of its reserves, with over 5,000 tonnes, it would be sending a very strong message to the world – not just that China is rich, that it means business and that it’s a challenge to US economic might. But, more importantly for gold bugs, that message would suddenly legitimise gold as a strategic, monetary asset – the very thing they crave. The power of such a message on the gold price would have been breath taking. But the message never came. The disappointment is considerable. Of course, it’s highly possible, if not probable, that China has more gold than it says it does. It might not be declaring all the gold held by all state departments. It might be that it wants to downplay its holdings in order to drive the price down so it can accumulate more on the cheap. It might not yet be ready to throw down such gauntlets to the US. Or it might be that China is telling the truth and official holdings are as reported. It doesn’t matter. It’s made its announcement and probably won’t make another for another five years. The trump card that was going to turn this bear market around has been played, that particular narrative is another that has gone the way of the pear, and it leaves even less for gold bugs to cling on to. The bear market goes on. Gold needs another story to reverse it. Here comes $1,050 an ounce... My long-stated prediction is for gold to hit $1,050, and it now looks like we’re going to see that. If we get there, the next question to ask will be, “Will it hold?” If it doesn’t, $850 comes back into play. But there is a lot of support at $1,050. It was a wall of resistance for several years on the way up. Hopefully, it will prove to be support now. On the positive side, sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish. June to August is the worst period for gold – and usually when you see the lows for the year. Physical buying is still robust. The Indian wedding season (when the most physical buying occurs) is not far away. And the low price is going to put yet more mines out of business, which should shrink production. Perhaps it’s time for a contrarian bet.
23/7/2015
04:06
ohisay: RBC on the sector. At $1,100/oz gold, most of the companies in our coverage universe are expected to continue to cut G&A, exploration, and sustaining capital spending. We could also see producers begin an accelerated closure process for their higher-cost, shorter-life mines by spending on reclamation rather than sustaining capital and mining out residual reserves over a 2- to 3- year period. Another alternative would be to place mines on care & maintenance, which would still require ongoing security/maintenance costs, although this would avoid burning cash for longer reserve life mines during a period of high sustaining capital spending associated with major waste stripping or underground development. However, at or near $1,000/oz gold, we would expect companies to announce that their high-cost mines are being placed on accelerated closure, even mines that previously had long reserve lives given the potential for significant cash burn. We believe that most of the gold and silver producers in our coverage universe would struggle in a $1,000 gold environment if they do not defer discretionary costs, cut capital, and close cash-burning mines. The companies that currently have the highest AISC costs include AngloGold, Centerra Gold,Detour Gold, IAMGOLD, Kinross, Newmont, Perseus, Pan American, Silver Standard,Teranga, and Timmins Gold. High-quality producers and royalty-streaming companies We believe the current gold price pullback presents an opportunity to buy gold mining equities with strong balance sheets that offer an attractive risk-reward. In our view, in a sub- $1,100 gold price environment, the most resilient North American listed gold producers with solid yet flexible business plans and strong balance sheets would be Acacia, Alamos,Centamin, Fresnillo, Goldcorp, Goldfields, Klondex, Newmont, Randgold, SEMAFO, and Tahoe (Exhibit 1). These companies have low net debt, a low capital spending to cash flow ratio, and low-cost mines. The gold companies with the most robust business models and in a sharply lower gold price environment are the royalty and streaming companies, including Franco-Nevada, Royal Gold, Silver Wheaton, and Osisko, which have little or no debt and minimal operating and capital exposure.
19/1/2015
09:14
altin para: Analysts Expect Gold To Remain Strong Ahead Of ECB Volatility By Neils Christensen of Kitco News Friday January 16, 2015 3:31 PM (Kitco News) - Safe-haven demand helped gold prices end the week at its highest level since early September and according to most analysts, ongoing volatility should continue to support gold in the upcoming shortened trading week. Open floor trading of Comex February gold futures settled Friday at $1,276.90 an ounce, up $53.90 or 4.41% since Monday. The strong move in gold also helped to drive up silver prices as Comex March silver futures settled the week at $17.750 an ounce, up $1.255 or 7.61% since the start of the week. Although U.S. markets are closed Monday in celebration of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, volatility will likely pick up Tuesday where it left; analysts anticipate that markets will continue to recover from the aftermath of the Swiss National Bank’s sudden decision to discontinue the currency peg against the euro, analysts said. Traders and investors are also look forvolatility to remain high as speculation surrounding Thursday’s European Central Bank monetary policy meeting continues to grow. “The rollercoaster ride is far from over… as upcoming ECB QE will refocus the spotlight on the monetary policy divergence themes, likely continuing to place stress on US markets as global investors reposition,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, U.S. strategist at TD Securities. According to some analysts, markets have priced in a 75% chance that ECB President Mario Draghi will announce an expanded quantitative easing that include the purchase of sovereign bonds. Bill Baruch, senior commodity broker at iiTrader, said the key will be in the details of the program, which he added will probably disappoint the market’s high expectations. “I think the risk is that the ECB under-delivers. It is going to add uncertainty to the marketplace, and gold is going to look attractive,” he said. Although Baruch didn’t give a time-frame, he said that with gold’s current momentum, he expects to see prices test the next key psychological area of $1,300 an ounce. “The path of least resistance for gold is higher,” he said. Related Stories: 'Carnage' In Financial Markets Boosts Gold As Safe-Haven Asset HSBC Gold Outlook: Bearish Factors May Not Be So Bearish In 2015 LBMA's 2014 Gold Price Forecast Winner Shares 2015 Predictions For Metals Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer of Merk Investments, said that nobody really knows what Draghi is going to do and that uncertainty is going to help gold in the near-term. He added gold should still perform well after Thursday’s meeting because markets will then focus on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy scheduled the following week on Jan. 28. “The Fed has been fairly quiet with their optimism. Everyone thinks they are going to move forward with a rate hike but I’m not so sure,” he said. “Real interest rates are negative right now and gold will do well in this environment. I am happy with my gold positions.” Ken Morrison, editor of online newsletter Morrison on the Markets, said that he is not convinced that gold will be able to maintain its momentum. He added that the gold price has hit and taken out his near-term target of $1,250 an ounce and that he would expect to see some profit taking next week. “If I were long gold at these levels, I would be looking at taking some of my profits off the table,” he said. One of the reasons why gold has rallied is because of the anticipation of looser monetary policies in Europe; however, with the decision already priced in, he would expect to see a sell-off on the actual event, Morrison added. Turning to American markets, U.S. data reports are relatively light until mid-week, with the release of housing data; the week ends with an early view of the manufacturing sector, which thanks to recent regional reports, is fairly mixed. Looking at housing starts, which will be released Wednesday, economists at Nomura said that they are on pace to beat 2013 numbers but construction is still down by historical comparison. They add “there is still a long way to go in the housing market recovery.” Also on the radar next week is the 45th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland where the international political, economic and business leaders meet to discuss the challenges facing the world. The meeting will be held from January 21 to January 24.
27/11/2014
12:03
onedayrodders: moneyweek.com If the Swiss vote ‘yes’, it’ll put a permanent floor under the gold price On Sunday, the population of Switzerland will decide whether they want their central bank – the Swiss National Bank (SNB) – to abide by the following rules. It would be prevented from selling any of its gold reserves. It would have to store all those gold reserves actually in Switzerland (at the moment only about 70% is there). And it would have to make sure that at least 20% of its assets are held in gold. Right now less than 8% of the SNB’s assets are held in gold. So raising that to 20% would mean the SNB would have to either sell some of its foreign currency reserves (to increase the proportion of its reserves held on gold), or buy a large amount of gold in pretty short order. It would be highly unlikely to go for the former option, because this would lead the Swiss franc to strengthen, and kick off a nasty deflationary crisis as a result. (One of the reasons that the percentage of the SNB’s assets held in gold has fallen as low as 8% is because Switzerland has been frantically printing francs and using them to buy other currencies in an effort to prevent the franc from rising.) The upshot is that if Switzerland votes ‘yes’, the SNB will buy gold over a five-year period. The gold price is likely to jump as a result – by 18%, suggests the Bank of America. Better still for holders of gold, every time the price of gold fell after that, the SNB would have to buy more to keep their gold reserves at 20%. That would put a partial but permanent floor under the gold price. So again, anyone buying what the central bankers buy will do very nicely indeed. (If you’re a MoneyWeek subscriber, you can read more on the details of the vote in our recent briefing on the topic.) Even if the Swiss vote ‘no’, this is good for gold Now, the reality is that the Swiss probably won’t vote ‘yes’. A hardcore of gold bugs likes to think that there will be a ‘shock’ when the votes are counted. But as is often the way with referendums (see Scotland!), the authorities have been out campaigning in the wake of a poll suggesting that a ‘yes’ vote was possible. An aggressive media effort from the SNB seems to have worked in pushing down support for the ‘Save our Swiss Gold’ initiative. The most recent poll showed 38% in favour, 47% against, and 15% undecided. But the very fact that there has been enough momentum behind the idea to get it this far – and that 38% of the voting population say they will vote ‘yes’ – matters. It’s a reminder that a large part of the populations of countries with money-printing banks aren’t comfortable with the experimental nature of modern monetary policy (which boils down to printing more money every time there is a hint of deflation). The SNB claims that the obligation to hold gold would remove its flexibility to create money as and when it likes (because they’d have to buy more gold whenever they did). But that’s exactly what the Swiss behind the campaign want. They don’t like the fact that central bankers have effectively become more powerful than politicians. And they don’t believe that central bankers are any more capable today than they have been in the past of figuring out exactly how much money should be available in any one economy at any one time. So they want to use the gold initiative to prevent them trying. They aren’t alone in their concerns. If the US had a referendum system similar to that in Switzerland, my bet is that you would see something similar happening there – Republican senator Rand Paul is famously keen on a new gold standard, for example. Those concerns also aren’t likely to go away on the back of a ‘no’ vote. Remember how a mere 38% of the adult population voted ‘yes’ in the Scottish referendum? They haven’t gone away – if anything, they are more angry and more dedicated to their cause than ever (watch out for the Smith Commission report today – it is likely to offer independence by the back door). The Swiss referendum is just one manifestation of voter dissatisfaction with politics in the developed world. There are more to come, whichever way this vote goes.
05/6/2015
19:38
irnbru2: For pb35, his mate. By Dominic Frisby: From rags to riches, and back to rags again. In today’s Money Morning, we consider the price action of everybody’s favourite precious metal: gold. We also look at prospects for the companies that are attempting to mine for it. The bear market started almost four years ago. Is it any closer to ending? Or are we looking at more of the same? Gold’s bear market has been nasty – but the miners have had it worse: Gold’s bear market is now approaching its fourth anniversary. September 2011 was the high, $1,920 an ounce the price. That ended a bull market, which had begun some ten years earlier, in the spring of 2001, with gold at just $250. The bear market low came in November last year at $1,130. So from high to low, we’re talking about falls of around 40%. Pretty bad, but not the end of the world given the gains that preceded it. And remember, we’re talking about intra-day highs and lows which nobody, not even those with superpowers, will have come close to catching. The gold miners, however, are truly horrible. The next paragraph makes for grim reading. Look away now if you’re easily offended. From high to low, the senior producers (as measured by the HUI, the NYSE index of unhedged miners), fell by 78%. They’re currently sitting about 15% off the lows. And that’s the large caps. The junior producers, as measured by the exchange-traded fund, GDXJ (NYSE:GDXJ), fell by 87%! I try not to use exclamation marks as a rule, but that last stat deserves one. As for the small caps – the tiny exploration companies – pick a number. Many of them have ceased trading, most haven’t got any money and nor are they likely, except in exceptional circumstances, to get funded. Their entire business model is, currently, redundant. They could quite literally strike gold and nobody would give a monkey’s. That is the brutal reality of the current market conditions. The most promising hunting ground for gold mining stocks: This year started with a rally, taking gold to $1,300. That was followed by a fall, with gold back at $1,140 by mid-March. Since then there’s been a decent enough uptrend in place. Gold is now sitting at the $1,190 area, which is more or less where it began the year. It’s going nowhere, basically. And this has been even more apparent over the last two months, when it has been stuck in a $40 range. After the cascading falls of 2013, this has morphed into a bear market of the grinding variety. There are signs of stabilisation – this sideways action we are currently seeing is part of that – but the broader trend remains down. Even although the shorter-term moving averages (a technical analysis measure that shows the underlying trend) are now flat, the longer-term averages are pointing lower. It’s the same story with the miners. We might have what is known as a ‘double bottom’ in place – a W bottom – and there is a gentle uptrend, but it’s too early to declare with any confidence that the bear market is over. One thing I am noticing among the smaller and mid-cap stocks is that certain companies – those that have sorted out their balance sheets and are now mining gold at a profit – are moving higher, and are in the green for the year. One of the conditions we’ll have to see in order to encourage broader investment in the sector again is companies actually making profits. Some are now managing that, which is positive, and their share prices are benefiting accordingly. But there are still plenty that aren’t making money. The dross is still dross – and that is what is pulling the broader indices lower. I suppose this is all part of the purging process of a bear market. Forget exploration, forget small caps, except in exceptional circumstances (and my portfolio still has too many ‘exceptional circumstances’). The small caps’ time will come again, but – and this is just one writer’s view – that time is not yet here. Profitable mid-caps are, I suggest, the best hunting ground. Some options to investigate further – I don’t own any of these – include B2 Gold (TSX: BTO); Lake Shore (TSX: LSG) and Teranga (TSX:TGZ). One I do own is McEwan Mining (TSX: MUX). There is also another sector I’m looking at – we’ll call it the mineral bank. Some companies are accumulating as many undeveloped or partially developed deposits as they can while they are cheap, with the plan of simply sitting on them until market conditions improve. It’s a good time to stock up on gold – but don’t expect massive moves soon: So what’s next? The problem for gold now is that the bull market has gone, and the world has lost interest. Physical buying in Asia remains robust. Russia’s central bank continues to buy. Texas is making noises about ‘repatriating’ its gold, following in Austria’s footsteps. This will excite those who argue that taking delivery of physical metal undermines the paper shorts that are (they say) suppressing the gold price. From a technical analysis point of view, the sideways action we are seeing now often presages a sharp move. But the jury is out, as far as I’m concerned, as to which way it’ll be. There are plenty of more extreme narratives doing the rounds, but they’re not, in my view, substantial enough for a new bull market to take hold. All that stuff about the financial world imploding – yes, there’s a heck of a lot waiting to go wrong in the global economy, but if you’re betting on these kind of occurrences, history shows that probability is against you. This kind of fear is not enough to start a repeat of the 2001-11 bull market. All in all, I’m sticking with my narrative for gold. The worst of the falls are over, but we may still grind lower. I still have that target of $1,050 an ounce, but the longer we go without getting there, the less likely we are to ever see it. It’s probably not a bad time to be accumulating some physical metal if you don’t yet own any. But I suggest fireworks are still a way away.
14/5/2015
17:42
plasybryn: Germans pile into gold amid Greek eurozone default fears Economic uncertainty in Europe and fear of a Greek default are turning people to buy gold bars and coins By Andrew Critchlow, Commodities editor The Telegraph. 9:59AM BST 14 May 2015 German investors have piled into gold bars and coins in the first quarter of the year as a hedge against European Central Bank policy and the threat of a Greek default bringing down the eurozone. Latest figures from the World Gold Council show that Germans increased their buying of gold coins and bars of bullion by 20pc to 32.2 tonnes in the last quarter, the highest rate of purchases seen in a year. The strong buying of gold - which is traditionally seen by investors as a safe-haven asset - was seen across Europe amid growing uncertainty over central bank policy and the standoff between Athens and its creditors. "This was the strongest start in Europe for gold coins and bars that we have seen since 2011," Alistair Hewitt, head of market intelligence at the World Gold Council told The Telegraph. "German investors are fretting over the ECB, Greece and Ukraine." On the wider market, the World Gold Council revealed that total demand in the first quarter fell 1pc to 1,079 tonnes compared with the same period last year. Despite higher demand in Europe, Asia dominated the gold market in the first quarter with China and India accounting to for 54pc of consumer demand in the first three months of the year. In value terms, gold demand in the first quarter stood at $42bn (£26.6bn), down 7pc compared with a year earlier. The average gold price of $1,218.5 per ounce was down 6pc on the average for the first three months of last year. “The global gold market’s ecosystem functioned healthily during the first three months of 2015 illustrating the unique nature of gold and its ability to rebalance across sectors and geographies," said Mr Hewitt.

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