Tyman Share Discussion Threads

[glavey] 24/4/2024 15:12

Was reflecting upon historical performance. But yes, at appx. hypothetical bid price, although that would assume things over the pond hold up and TYMN holders cut and run.

Otherwise 'new NX' likely considerably lower and subject to withholding tax...

Generally I think the offer has a whiff of contrivance about it.

[jeffian] 24/4/2024 11:49

Not sure I get that, Glavey. Last TYMN full year div was 13.7p/bid price 400p = 3.425%. Anyway, the point is that for income investors, the equivalent dividends if they accept Quanex shares will be considerably lower than they get now.

[glavey] 23/4/2024 03:37

Tyman dividends better than that:

Scroll down....

Versus:

[jeffian] 22/4/2024 16:03

Mind you, another issue to be considered is the dividend. I note that the yield on Quanex is 0.92% compared to about 3.5% for TYMN at the bid price.

[jeffian] 22/4/2024 15:24

Right, read a bit more now and to answer my own question (#226) it appears that the new shares will only be listed on NYSE but UK shareholders wishing to hold any or all of their shares can do so in UK via CDIs.

"The Enlarged Group will be listed on the NYSE.

Quanex intends prior to completion of the Transaction to establish a CREST depositary interest dealing facility for the benefit of the Tyman Shareholders who hold their Tyman Shares in uncertificated form so as to facilitate the trading of the New Quanex Shares from outside the United States. Details of how UK shareholders can hold, access and trade the New Quanex Shares will be set out in the Scheme Document."

Generally, CDIs seem to be pretty well equivalent to holding UK listed shares but I think the dividends may be subject to US Witholding Tax (should be off-settable against UK tax). I don't know whether all platforms are set up to deal with this (I'm with HL).

I suppose many/most will be thinking 'well why not just take the money and run?' but there are 2 reasons some (including me) may wish to continue to hold -
1) to participate in any future growth unlocked by the merger and
2) to avoid, defer or limit the impact of CGT which is not triggered by a share-for-share transaction.

[rcturner2] 22/4/2024 13:57

Glavey, just sell the shares and take the cash.

[wad collector] 22/4/2024 13:25

Course you have, though you have never posted here that you bought any, and have ramped GNC on multiple boards pretending you are selling everywhere else. You are not honest.

[blackhorse23] 22/4/2024 10:49

Out now & money moved to GNC

[jeffian] 22/4/2024 10:06

Well I wasn't expecting that! Haven't quite absorbed it all yet. Will the new shares be London-listed or NYSE only? Some issues for UK shareholders if the latter.

[glavey] 22/4/2024 09:35

Dreadful offer. Hope this gets rejected!
Only 240p cash and some 'hyped' US listed paper to make up the balance, claimed to be worth 400p. It's more like 320p in sensible value against a depressed share price of circa 300p making it a derisory offer.
After the GFC, Louis Eperjesi (now a NED at Howdens) grew this co. very successfully over 10 years by aquisitions before his retirement. His successor, Jo Hallas, didn't achieve so much before drifting away although admittedly that period included the pandemic. Now her interim stand-in, Jason Ashton (CFO) and her eventual successor of just 3,1/2 months, Rutger Helbing, 'and co.' have sold the business down the river (in support of their own interests, it would seem). Defenestration would seem an appropriate response.

[dunns_river_falls] 25/7/2023 19:09

Paul at Stocko covered this today. Summary is
"moderately positive, at a quick glance. A PER of about 10, divi yield of 4.7%. Upbeat-sounding outlook comments today, and a cyclical recovery to factor in at some later stage."

[jeffian] 25/7/2023 17:34

Not sure why those results warrant a 5% increase in share price, but very welcome nonetheless. I assume it was the forward-looking statement that "we expect to deliver full year adjusted operating profit at the top end of market expectations"?

[dunns_river_falls] 12/7/2023 18:31

Acquisition seems like a good fit. Reasonable price paid and earnings enhancing. Funded by debt.
Strange time to announce but good news nonetheless.

[rcturner2] 12/5/2023 15:41

I have sold today. Taken my profits. I'm worried about the sector after the Eurocell profit warning.

[jeffian] 21/4/2023 10:41

It doesn't seem to have affected the share price much but the resignation of the CEO 'with immediate effect' was clearly unexpected (they had to quickly alter the AGM Resolutions where she was up for re-election). Of course it could be health/personal issues-related, but it has had an impact with replacement appointments having to be made on an 'interim' basis. Wonder if there's more to come out?

[jeffian] 02/3/2023 09:50

Solid enough but my experience of Mr. Market is that he takes any positive news as a given but focuses on any hint of negatives, so using a word like "challenging" in the Outlook statement will set the tone IMO.

I have held this share since Lupus Capital days and happy to continue to do so. I'm at a stage (retirement) when I'm not looking to substantially increase capital wealth, just preserve what I've got from inflation and get a steadily rising dividend income.

[brucie5] 02/3/2023 08:46

Reasonable results afaics, with 6% raised dividend. No market interest apparently. I no longer hold.

[rcturner2] 27/2/2023 08:44

Results on Thursday this week.

[brucie5] 12/1/2023 12:04

Yes, a really interesting chart, though no screens/ positive metrics on Stocko, so I took my time.

However, I'm in as of this morning, so thanks RCT.
;)

[rcturner2] 12/1/2023 11:25

Good price recovery going on here from 200p.

[sphere25] 15/12/2022 19:16

Phew, it saved the post!

Mentioned posting in TYMN last time when the tinternet went off, and this time when posting on TYMN....almost finished it....and the power goes off!

Things break around this company - might be a sign to stay away! ha

Fortunately...the post got recovered. I was going to send this hours earlier.


Price 229p.
Closed my trades early here for a small gain.

This looks a fail in terms of the follow through momentum expected, but an example of what has been happening in this market. As per the post above, the bounces don't last long.

If this was a bull market, that pop up toward near 238p on Tuesday would have held, and 240p would have cracked, with an intraday close near or bang at the highs with the high likely made in the closing auction too.

There would have then been further momentum the next day. TYMN moves an easy 5-10% higher numerous times in a bullish market. In this bear market, it does what it has done, with tentative short term bullish moves that get sold as the market continually worries about profit downgrades on the back of such an uncertain macro environment.

Also watching the US closely now as the S&P 500 is showing more weakness after the recent bullish moves and testing key support levels, which could result in further downside that affects short term positions like TYMN.

I play it safe and close my trades and reduce exposure when I see moves like that - that doesn't mean it is the right move, but I'd rather miss out on abit than get walloped in a market like this. It is risk management.

Furthermore, noted the S&P500 has repeatedly knocked its head against that 200 day moving average and cannot break through. That is definitely not a good technical sign. The algos then see that and the market sells back down (which has been a recurring theme) and then you have weak retail sales in the US today too, so the overall bearish theme continues.

That is not to say another whopping big sell off happens. They might just end up range bound between 3600-4100, that is in light of recent bullish moves despite all the bad news out there, and uncertainty to come.

So it is back to treading even more carefully after this recent bullish move.

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 13/12/2022 13:36

In for a short term trade.

They're coming in to buy in size here with almost 5.4m exchanged. Noted a 4100 iceberg on the bid too at 228p mopping up so taken a few just to see if the Bulls can give the Bears here abit of a test and at least a short term pop higher.

That 220p mark mentioned in the post above has been key. It broke it and back tested it too and now bigger buyers have come in to try and force another break out above 228p.

They came in yesterday too with over 2m exchanged. This isn't blow out volume and doesn't signify anything massively bullish, but it might possibly be enough for at least a short term bounce.

That is the play.

It might not work. We have seen buyers come in with this sort of size, where it is notable but not blow out, and the rallies just don't last long so it is about being nimble and having a stop too.

Stuck my stop under 227p just in case the bears sell this break higher which has spiked to hit 234p as I typed.

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 17/11/2022 10:12

Well, the tinternet has gone down so trading blind for now. Good job it has been alot calmer of late out there. May as well type a longer post here whilst it is down, which is applicable to TYMN and alot of the market really.

Interested to see how TYMN reacts today and whether anyone comes in to make a big move soon.

On one hand they're trading in line, the valuation has been beaten up and there are some more bullish spirits out there of late with inflation topping out, interest rates topping out and falling away (which will be a major relief) and ultimately shares catching some demand and even causing some speculative buying in the higher risk loss making growth companies.

On top of that the US market is trying to at least form a bottom and there have been some very sharp moves higher in the DAX and CAC with some nice bounces over here too. It remains to be seen how these hold depending on how long and deep the recession is.

On the other hand, you are sat there thinking how the earnings are going to hold up next year and how the debt will come in to play here and elsewhere. You have all kinds of forecast of house price drops in the UK and one in the US yesterday was suggesting a 20% move down.

So how deep and long will this recession be, can employment hold up and what does that mean for earnings and valuations?

That all remains to be seen. If the price has been decimated, the company keeps performing or doesn't miss forecasts by too much, it is risk to the upside. If they keep downgrading (and substantially), the market could take fright with the price going lower. Clearly it is all relative. If the debt comes into play too, then the opportune time to buy might be on a discounted placing that reassures the finances and recovery of the company.

The other thing is we don't know here and in the US how these aggressive rate hikes are going to eventually feed through into the economy. The markets are suggesting any recession won't be severe and earnings will hold up or most of it is in the price.

Europe does not move like this otherwise. I would also say the US would have gone to test the low 3000's (based on earnings falling to somewhere around $200 and much more realistic multiple, though it can go under 14 if it were to get really bad) if they anticipated a much more severe downturn.

I thought the US was headed to the low 3000's but it only fell to just under 3500 so I was miles off. Their bond curve is so inverted that a recession is on its way so are they being too optimistic into year end (seasonal short term bullish move?) with the reality hitting home hard next year as earnings fall more than they expect or the FED overdo it with QT also coming into play?

Can the markets also bottom at this early stage without the full brunt of the earnings recession yet to be felt?

It would be peculiar.

Quality companies with good balance sheets will shine through. Not suggesting TYMN is going to be amazing, just using it to post the dynamics out there and it has been a nice trading share too.

It is riskier with the debt, but when risk on returns, it just goes nuts higher (often on nothing volume once sellers have been exhausted) too so it will be a call on when bullish spirits firmly return. At the moment we have these rather unconvincing and tentative type bounces, where it doesn't take much for downtrends to resume or the price to go back into a range near the bottom without the continued bullish trend to the upside.

You also already have continued warnings that are blocking the upside moves with Q3 being the highest for profit warnings since 2008:

Fundamentals:
Edison have some research here to form a picture of the fundamentals and multiples.

Technicals:
- Trend is clearly down and trying to consolidate near the bottom
- 220p is firm resistance and a break of that would at least suggest a short term bullish move
- A few decent blocks with 2.6m exchanged early on, nothing substantial as yet. Blow out volume could send a signal and an attempt at a trade to see if the key resistance levels can be tested.
- Some decent buyers at around the 208p-209p level but nothing that says it can't keep falling from here either

Leave it there.


All imo
DYOR

[glavey] 02/11/2022 07:27

Debt is an issue anywhere.