Tyman Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 27/2/2023 08:44

Results on Thursday this week.

[brucie5] 12/1/2023 12:04

Yes, a really interesting chart, though no screens/ positive metrics on Stocko, so I took my time.

However, I'm in as of this morning, so thanks RCT.
;)

[rcturner2] 12/1/2023 11:25

Good price recovery going on here from 200p.

[sphere25] 15/12/2022 19:16

Phew, it saved the post!

Mentioned posting in TYMN last time when the tinternet went off, and this time when posting on TYMN....almost finished it....and the power goes off!

Things break around this company - might be a sign to stay away! ha

Fortunately...the post got recovered. I was going to send this hours earlier.


Price 229p.
Closed my trades early here for a small gain.

This looks a fail in terms of the follow through momentum expected, but an example of what has been happening in this market. As per the post above, the bounces don't last long.

If this was a bull market, that pop up toward near 238p on Tuesday would have held, and 240p would have cracked, with an intraday close near or bang at the highs with the high likely made in the closing auction too.

There would have then been further momentum the next day. TYMN moves an easy 5-10% higher numerous times in a bullish market. In this bear market, it does what it has done, with tentative short term bullish moves that get sold as the market continually worries about profit downgrades on the back of such an uncertain macro environment.

Also watching the US closely now as the S&P 500 is showing more weakness after the recent bullish moves and testing key support levels, which could result in further downside that affects short term positions like TYMN.

I play it safe and close my trades and reduce exposure when I see moves like that - that doesn't mean it is the right move, but I'd rather miss out on abit than get walloped in a market like this. It is risk management.

Furthermore, noted the S&P500 has repeatedly knocked its head against that 200 day moving average and cannot break through. That is definitely not a good technical sign. The algos then see that and the market sells back down (which has been a recurring theme) and then you have weak retail sales in the US today too, so the overall bearish theme continues.

That is not to say another whopping big sell off happens. They might just end up range bound between 3600-4100, that is in light of recent bullish moves despite all the bad news out there, and uncertainty to come.

So it is back to treading even more carefully after this recent bullish move.

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 13/12/2022 13:36

In for a short term trade.

They're coming in to buy in size here with almost 5.4m exchanged. Noted a 4100 iceberg on the bid too at 228p mopping up so taken a few just to see if the Bulls can give the Bears here abit of a test and at least a short term pop higher.

That 220p mark mentioned in the post above has been key. It broke it and back tested it too and now bigger buyers have come in to try and force another break out above 228p.

They came in yesterday too with over 2m exchanged. This isn't blow out volume and doesn't signify anything massively bullish, but it might possibly be enough for at least a short term bounce.

That is the play.

It might not work. We have seen buyers come in with this sort of size, where it is notable but not blow out, and the rallies just don't last long so it is about being nimble and having a stop too.

Stuck my stop under 227p just in case the bears sell this break higher which has spiked to hit 234p as I typed.

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 17/11/2022 10:12

Well, the tinternet has gone down so trading blind for now. Good job it has been alot calmer of late out there. May as well type a longer post here whilst it is down, which is applicable to TYMN and alot of the market really.

Interested to see how TYMN reacts today and whether anyone comes in to make a big move soon.

On one hand they're trading in line, the valuation has been beaten up and there are some more bullish spirits out there of late with inflation topping out, interest rates topping out and falling away (which will be a major relief) and ultimately shares catching some demand and even causing some speculative buying in the higher risk loss making growth companies.

On top of that the US market is trying to at least form a bottom and there have been some very sharp moves higher in the DAX and CAC with some nice bounces over here too. It remains to be seen how these hold depending on how long and deep the recession is.

On the other hand, you are sat there thinking how the earnings are going to hold up next year and how the debt will come in to play here and elsewhere. You have all kinds of forecast of house price drops in the UK and one in the US yesterday was suggesting a 20% move down.

So how deep and long will this recession be, can employment hold up and what does that mean for earnings and valuations?

That all remains to be seen. If the price has been decimated, the company keeps performing or doesn't miss forecasts by too much, it is risk to the upside. If they keep downgrading (and substantially), the market could take fright with the price going lower. Clearly it is all relative. If the debt comes into play too, then the opportune time to buy might be on a discounted placing that reassures the finances and recovery of the company.

The other thing is we don't know here and in the US how these aggressive rate hikes are going to eventually feed through into the economy. The markets are suggesting any recession won't be severe and earnings will hold up or most of it is in the price.

Europe does not move like this otherwise. I would also say the US would have gone to test the low 3000's (based on earnings falling to somewhere around $200 and much more realistic multiple, though it can go under 14 if it were to get really bad) if they anticipated a much more severe downturn.

I thought the US was headed to the low 3000's but it only fell to just under 3500 so I was miles off. Their bond curve is so inverted that a recession is on its way so are they being too optimistic into year end (seasonal short term bullish move?) with the reality hitting home hard next year as earnings fall more than they expect or the FED overdo it with QT also coming into play?

Can the markets also bottom at this early stage without the full brunt of the earnings recession yet to be felt?

It would be peculiar.

Quality companies with good balance sheets will shine through. Not suggesting TYMN is going to be amazing, just using it to post the dynamics out there and it has been a nice trading share too.

It is riskier with the debt, but when risk on returns, it just goes nuts higher (often on nothing volume once sellers have been exhausted) too so it will be a call on when bullish spirits firmly return. At the moment we have these rather unconvincing and tentative type bounces, where it doesn't take much for downtrends to resume or the price to go back into a range near the bottom without the continued bullish trend to the upside.

You also already have continued warnings that are blocking the upside moves with Q3 being the highest for profit warnings since 2008:

Fundamentals:
Edison have some research here to form a picture of the fundamentals and multiples.

Technicals:
- Trend is clearly down and trying to consolidate near the bottom
- 220p is firm resistance and a break of that would at least suggest a short term bullish move
- A few decent blocks with 2.6m exchanged early on, nothing substantial as yet. Blow out volume could send a signal and an attempt at a trade to see if the key resistance levels can be tested.
- Some decent buyers at around the 208p-209p level but nothing that says it can't keep falling from here either

Leave it there.


All imo
DYOR

[glavey] 02/11/2022 07:27

Debt is an issue anywhere.

[rcturner2] 02/11/2022 07:15

Might the debt be an issue here?

[glavey] 06/9/2022 17:08

Sharecast.com 5/9/22)

Analysts at Berenberg downgraded construction firm Tyman from 'buy' to 'hold' and slashed their target price on the stock from 420.0p to 250.0p on Monday, stating now was "not the right time".

Berenberg said while Tyman had made "good progress" on its turnaround plan over the last few years, inflationary pressures and "an increasingly bearish end-market outlook" would now make it "difficult" for the group to outperform.

The German bank also noted that although Tyman trades at a 21% discount to peers, it said that this already appears to have narrowed versus history and, given likely earnings revisions, it believes there are currently limited catalysts to support a re-rating.

"We downgrade our recommendation to Hold with a new price target of 250p as we await signs of a bottoming out in US activity," said Berenberg, which also transferred coverage to analyst Lushanthan Mahendrarajah.

"Shares trade on 6.8x 2023 EV/EBIT. While optically cheap, we note that the discount to peers has already narrowed to 21% versus 25% historically. Given the risk of downwards earnings revisions, we see limited catalysts for a re-rating in the near term."

[sphere25] 17/8/2022 11:47

And unfortunately this is the repeated pattern that keeps happening out there. The price is now at 241p after the bulls came in to try and clear sellers up at 258p-259p.

The market eventually sees the sellers in size, others jump the sellers to offer 257p and lower, the timid buyers get exhausted and the downward trend continues. Now clearly if up at 258p-259p, we saw whopping big blocks of millions (the small orders on the books are huge sell orders) going through with sellers being taken out at 258p-260p, the price moving higher, the book being well bid and a close well through 260p, you could have a trend change.

Unfortunately, that type of interest isn't happening and we have to sit and play defence (easy to lose 5-10% like the move in TYMN in no time for short term traders) until those good times come with trend changing charts. No idea when the bottom is in and when that will happen, but clearly we're all watching.

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 10/8/2022 14:25

All those issues ^ and to add in central bank plonkers, wayward consumer confidence and all kinds of uncertainty on hard landings and you can see from the trading activity in TYMN today just what we are all up against at present (let alone when it was was even worse earlier in the year).

There is all this strong buying at 258p, and you just about clear it to then hit another road block at 259p, where you have a whole load of buying and still don't manage (at the time of writing) to get through there.

Then all it takes are a few sellers to realise there are big sellers in the market and they lob and you're back trying to get through 258p. Even if you now get through the persistent sellers at 258p and 259p, no doubt someone would sit at 260p and lob in size there.

It is a micro example of the type of barricades the sellers are putting up and just how much buying is needed to even get a short term pop higher in some of these shares. Even when you get a pop higher, you don't have confidence it will hold so you bank what you can right now and keep stops tight to not be on the end of further downside or a out of the blue warning (WRKS, REVB, XPP to name a few recent ones) which is happening in some areas.

I mean just look how far TYMN is off the highs and how the multiple has compressed. Clearly the market believes there are earnings downgrades to come but it just shows what kind of whopping big buying is needed to get some shares to break the downtrends.

It is all very yuk but we perservere until better times comes. I suspect a range bound market consolidating a bottom would be ideal right now. Clearly we're not going to shoot higher any time soon. It looks a long hard slug where the outperforming companies or even those who don't warn too big, will end up being the winners, of sort.

The others will have to endure the full cyclical pain until they start reacting better to warnings or even rallying on them. That will be a very bullish sign but still not seeing much of that.

Being nimble and not getting too excited here.

Stops are and have been gold dust over the years. Everyone takes a hit but they save huge pain.

All imo
DYOR

[jeffian] 20/6/2022 21:55

"All indicators seem good"
Really? A war, crushing national debt, raging inflation, supply chain problems, strikes....."Good"?

".....but this still underperforms badly against other shares." Does it? I was trying (and failed) to post a chart comparing its performance over the past 2 years to the Allshare index and a number of companies in the building supplies sector. Other than ALU, it seems to compare pretty favourably. What are you comparing it to?

[bummel45] 20/6/2022 17:57

There must be something wrong here surely? All indicators seem good but this still underperforms badly against other shares. I have to ask my more knowledgable investors - WHY?

[km18] 19/5/2022 13:12

Tyman Group plc (TYMN) issued an AGM Trading Update for the four months to 30th April 2022 this morning. The Group's performance in the first four months of the year has been robust against an exceptionally strong comparative period, with underlying demand and the order book remaining strong. Consequently, the Board expects full year adjusted operating profit to be in line with current market expectations, current consensus is for £93.9m, up around 27% on FY21. EPS should benefit accordingly. Valuation is reasonably attractive, forward PE ratio at 8.2x is top third for Homebuilding & Construction Supplies. The balance sheet is strong, plenty of cash, net debt at multi-year lows. Share price is in a 12-month correction and still falling, down nearly 50%, so there is no rush to buy. TYMN is a share to monitor for now....

...from WealthOracleAM

[bummel45] 19/5/2022 10:20

I never expected one but was just trying to provoke and answer from someone!I didn't agree with either of the previous responses to my earlier comment, 'Ukraine' or 'war'. I just find it difficult to understand a market that hammers such a good company! Even the market until today has remained fairly buoyant while shares in Tyman have halved. I still don't get it.

[ianguerin] 19/5/2022 06:22

Some profit warning that today, eh Bummel ?

[bummel45] 04/5/2022 13:49

Profit warning due?

[bummel45] 28/4/2022 07:36

Is this company in trouble ?Two of you recently said 'sanctions' and 'war' as possible reasons for the decline but with all the broker recommendations at 'strong buy', the recent large holdings showing increases, a decent set of results, including a specific comment showing no involvement in Ukraine, and the stock market showing good resilience - why is it being treated so badly by the market?It's a bit late to get out now, but it doesn't look good.

[glavey] 06/4/2022 03:57

Sanctions?

[bummel45] 05/4/2022 19:47

I am mystified. When will this stop going down? I know there heave been a lot of very large transactions lately but I read those as mostly positive. Somebody tell me, have I missed something?

[sphere25] 21/3/2022 14:36

Watching this one all day.

Interesting ding dong going on here at 335p.

The overall trend is down and buyers are coming in to try and clear the sellers in size at work in the market to allow at least a cessation of the downtrend. Some big sell orders keep getting put on the offer at 335p, and even when the buyers clear those and move through that offer price to bid 336p, the sellers clear out all price points from 335p and higher.

Total exchanges at 6.6m which is substantial for TYMN.

This is another example of just how much buying it is actually taking to try and clear sellers in this bearish market.

TYMN is lumpy and gaps through price points quickly. It needs to clear and close above 340p (355p is the 50 day moving average) for the bulls to win this major ding dong and allow a bounce or the bears will stay in control if they keep closing off 335p-340p.

All imo
DYOR

[glavey] 04/3/2022 08:27

I don't know what the analysts had pencilled in but yes, solid and outlook set fair, although I think they may come under some pressure going forwards (as they reference). Perhaps a slightly unsavoury thought just now, longer term there is the prospect of replacement doors and windows.

[jeffian] 03/3/2022 15:47

Solid enough results out today though all bets are off for any share at the moment while war is being waged in Europe (or Iran, as Biden seems to think).