Tyman Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 02/11/2022 07:15

Might the debt be an issue here?

[glavey] 06/9/2022 18:08

Sharecast.com 5/9/22)

Analysts at Berenberg downgraded construction firm Tyman from 'buy' to 'hold' and slashed their target price on the stock from 420.0p to 250.0p on Monday, stating now was "not the right time".

Berenberg said while Tyman had made "good progress" on its turnaround plan over the last few years, inflationary pressures and "an increasingly bearish end-market outlook" would now make it "difficult" for the group to outperform.

The German bank also noted that although Tyman trades at a 21% discount to peers, it said that this already appears to have narrowed versus history and, given likely earnings revisions, it believes there are currently limited catalysts to support a re-rating.

"We downgrade our recommendation to Hold with a new price target of 250p as we await signs of a bottoming out in US activity," said Berenberg, which also transferred coverage to analyst Lushanthan Mahendrarajah.

"Shares trade on 6.8x 2023 EV/EBIT. While optically cheap, we note that the discount to peers has already narrowed to 21% versus 25% historically. Given the risk of downwards earnings revisions, we see limited catalysts for a re-rating in the near term."

[sphere25] 17/8/2022 12:47

And unfortunately this is the repeated pattern that keeps happening out there. The price is now at 241p after the bulls came in to try and clear sellers up at 258p-259p.

The market eventually sees the sellers in size, others jump the sellers to offer 257p and lower, the timid buyers get exhausted and the downward trend continues. Now clearly if up at 258p-259p, we saw whopping big blocks of millions (the small orders on the books are huge sell orders) going through with sellers being taken out at 258p-260p, the price moving higher, the book being well bid and a close well through 260p, you could have a trend change.

Unfortunately, that type of interest isn't happening and we have to sit and play defence (easy to lose 5-10% like the move in TYMN in no time for short term traders) until those good times come with trend changing charts. No idea when the bottom is in and when that will happen, but clearly we're all watching.

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 10/8/2022 15:25

All those issues ^ and to add in central bank plonkers, wayward consumer confidence and all kinds of uncertainty on hard landings and you can see from the trading activity in TYMN today just what we are all up against at present (let alone when it was was even worse earlier in the year).

There is all this strong buying at 258p, and you just about clear it to then hit another road block at 259p, where you have a whole load of buying and still don't manage (at the time of writing) to get through there.

Then all it takes are a few sellers to realise there are big sellers in the market and they lob and you're back trying to get through 258p. Even if you now get through the persistent sellers at 258p and 259p, no doubt someone would sit at 260p and lob in size there.

It is a micro example of the type of barricades the sellers are putting up and just how much buying is needed to even get a short term pop higher in some of these shares. Even when you get a pop higher, you don't have confidence it will hold so you bank what you can right now and keep stops tight to not be on the end of further downside or a out of the blue warning (WRKS, REVB, XPP to name a few recent ones) which is happening in some areas.

I mean just look how far TYMN is off the highs and how the multiple has compressed. Clearly the market believes there are earnings downgrades to come but it just shows what kind of whopping big buying is needed to get some shares to break the downtrends.

It is all very yuk but we perservere until better times comes. I suspect a range bound market consolidating a bottom would be ideal right now. Clearly we're not going to shoot higher any time soon. It looks a long hard slug where the outperforming companies or even those who don't warn too big, will end up being the winners, of sort.

The others will have to endure the full cyclical pain until they start reacting better to warnings or even rallying on them. That will be a very bullish sign but still not seeing much of that.

Being nimble and not getting too excited here.

Stops are and have been gold dust over the years. Everyone takes a hit but they save huge pain.

All imo
DYOR

[jeffian] 20/6/2022 22:55

"All indicators seem good"
Really? A war, crushing national debt, raging inflation, supply chain problems, strikes....."Good"?

".....but this still underperforms badly against other shares." Does it? I was trying (and failed) to post a chart comparing its performance over the past 2 years to the Allshare index and a number of companies in the building supplies sector. Other than ALU, it seems to compare pretty favourably. What are you comparing it to?

[bummel45] 20/6/2022 18:57

There must be something wrong here surely? All indicators seem good but this still underperforms badly against other shares. I have to ask my more knowledgable investors - WHY?

[km18] 19/5/2022 14:12

Tyman Group plc (TYMN) issued an AGM Trading Update for the four months to 30th April 2022 this morning. The Group's performance in the first four months of the year has been robust against an exceptionally strong comparative period, with underlying demand and the order book remaining strong. Consequently, the Board expects full year adjusted operating profit to be in line with current market expectations, current consensus is for £93.9m, up around 27% on FY21. EPS should benefit accordingly. Valuation is reasonably attractive, forward PE ratio at 8.2x is top third for Homebuilding & Construction Supplies. The balance sheet is strong, plenty of cash, net debt at multi-year lows. Share price is in a 12-month correction and still falling, down nearly 50%, so there is no rush to buy. TYMN is a share to monitor for now....

...from WealthOracleAM

[bummel45] 19/5/2022 11:20

I never expected one but was just trying to provoke and answer from someone!I didn't agree with either of the previous responses to my earlier comment, 'Ukraine' or 'war'. I just find it difficult to understand a market that hammers such a good company! Even the market until today has remained fairly buoyant while shares in Tyman have halved. I still don't get it.

[ianguerin] 19/5/2022 07:22

Some profit warning that today, eh Bummel ?

[bummel45] 04/5/2022 14:49

Profit warning due?

[bummel45] 28/4/2022 08:36

Is this company in trouble ?Two of you recently said 'sanctions' and 'war' as possible reasons for the decline but with all the broker recommendations at 'strong buy', the recent large holdings showing increases, a decent set of results, including a specific comment showing no involvement in Ukraine, and the stock market showing good resilience - why is it being treated so badly by the market?It's a bit late to get out now, but it doesn't look good.

[glavey] 06/4/2022 04:57

Sanctions?

[bummel45] 05/4/2022 20:47

I am mystified. When will this stop going down? I know there heave been a lot of very large transactions lately but I read those as mostly positive. Somebody tell me, have I missed something?

[sphere25] 21/3/2022 14:36

Watching this one all day.

Interesting ding dong going on here at 335p.

The overall trend is down and buyers are coming in to try and clear the sellers in size at work in the market to allow at least a cessation of the downtrend. Some big sell orders keep getting put on the offer at 335p, and even when the buyers clear those and move through that offer price to bid 336p, the sellers clear out all price points from 335p and higher.

Total exchanges at 6.6m which is substantial for TYMN.

This is another example of just how much buying it is actually taking to try and clear sellers in this bearish market.

TYMN is lumpy and gaps through price points quickly. It needs to clear and close above 340p (355p is the 50 day moving average) for the bulls to win this major ding dong and allow a bounce or the bears will stay in control if they keep closing off 335p-340p.

All imo
DYOR

[glavey] 04/3/2022 08:27

I don't know what the analysts had pencilled in but yes, solid and outlook set fair, although I think they may come under some pressure going forwards (as they reference). Perhaps a slightly unsavoury thought just now, longer term there is the prospect of replacement doors and windows.

[jeffian] 03/3/2022 15:47

Solid enough results out today though all bets are off for any share at the moment while war is being waged in Europe (or Iran, as Biden seems to think).

[texaspete2] 16/11/2021 13:57

Trading statement to be issued tomorrow, gla

[glavey] 05/10/2021 03:28

Bit of a sell-off yesterday.

[jeffian] 01/9/2021 15:32

(Sharecast News) - Berenberg upgraded its stance on shares of building products manufacturer Tyman to 'buy' from 'hold' on Wednesday and hiked the price target to 500p from 375p, citing an attractive entry point.
The bank noted that after a strong run over the past year, Tyman shares have pulled back 20% in recent months.

"We think the shares will outperform as management is focused on organic growth and margin expansion, the business is highly cash-generative with low leverage and potential for non-dilutive M&A, and it is supported by favourable macro tailwinds," it said.

Berenberg pointed out that historically, Tyman pursued an acquisition-led strategy, which contributed the vast majority of the revenue increase but also resulted in low organic growth.

"However, we think this is about to change. Management is now explicitly prioritising organic growth, installing a unified corporate culture and stepping up capital expenditure.

"At the same time residential construction (circa 80% of group revenues) is booming, while new-build housing and RMI activity are outperforming the broad economic recovery driven by pent-up savings, cheap mortgages and the 'race for space'."

In the longer term, Berenberg said the structural undersupply of housing and ageing stock that has been underinvested in the US should underpin growth forecasts.

"Taken together, we think that there is upside risk to current consensus revenue compound annual growth rate of 3% from FY 2021 to FY 2023 (or +7% versus 2019 by 2023)."

[the white house] 01/9/2021 12:36

And Hurricane Ida ripping through half of US helping

[texaspete2] 01/9/2021 11:30

Positive broker update this morning, technically this looks good as well and is also undervalued

[hem007] 01/9/2021 11:22

Anything going on? Or just a bounce from the August lull...

[jeffian] 01/9/2021 10:24

Looking lively.