Totally Share Discussion Threads

[savagedstock] 14/5/2024 15:39

Well done Nobby! have kept away as other things to do. Will look again, however has all the hallmarks of a potential buy-out. Financials not good, but in the current environment, revenue is king.....for me it is about margins, so cost cutting, higher value businesses etc, as I have said many time before.
GLA

[nobbygnome] 14/5/2024 12:57

So I’ve just sold half my position at 9p bought at 4.22 on 8th April as documented on this thread so can’t lose now. Shame others can’t see the wood for the trees

[nobbygnome] 14/5/2024 11:38

And level 2 is improving all the time. The next leg up isn’t far away….

[lawson27] 14/5/2024 10:30

Doubled in a month, happy days, long may it continue, GLA

[sikhthetech] 13/5/2024 21:24

I think we'll see more IIs buying.. With the co-founder of Liberum as the Chairman, he should have lots of contacts.

Given it's the GE over the next few months, I think we'll see both Labour and Tories with commitments to spend more on NHS.
NHS is always used as a political football.


If the company can build up their diversified business model, I expect a reasonable divi will be restored next year.

[1gw] 13/5/2024 18:23

Like I said in post 21195, in the current environment it seems that if a company can come out and beat dire expectations then it may be rewarded with a decent bounce. I was talking about Carclo then, but Novavax is another good example from my collection of beaten-up holdings: by completing and announcing a deal which makes bankruptcy less likely it has seen a huge spike, helped no doubt by burning shorts.

Very few of us can time things perfectly, so the question is how good or lucky we are in getting in and out of any trades around long-term holdings or indeed short-term punts. And part of that is trying to decide the extent to which any shareprice euphoria which accompanies a news release is sustainable. Totally has now caught up with Carclo in terms of share price reaction to its TU but what happens now? The following chart shows TLY in black over 1 month against Carclo and Novavax (rebased).


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[empoggio] 13/5/2024 16:45

I.d love the Newlands to get back on board!!!

[nobbygnome] 13/5/2024 16:11

Up another 15% whilst the trolls keep spouting the same old nonsense. As microscope says it’s now up 50% in the last week or so and those aforementioned trolls have missed out yet again. Some of us haven’t…

[sikhthetech] 13/5/2024 15:47

IIs increasing. Not surprising given the TU.

There was never material selling by IIs since July 27th 2023 upto H1, despite what 1gw suggested.

[microscope] 13/5/2024 14:53

Just a reminder, up over 50% since the statement. No surprise to chartists ;), and long term holders didn't sell the bounce, as wrongly predicted by some, at the first opportunity.

P/e even following the bounce still only around 7. Turnover (not entirely vanity imho!) now more than 6 times market cap after weeding out most low margin work, which should mean a leaner, fitter company being built.

Gross cash of over 2 million healthy enough, cash positive in H2 and headroom on covenants if they need it anytime. Long term investors could do a whole lot worse imho!

[nobbygnome] 13/5/2024 12:20

Another long boring post ignored….

[1gw] 13/5/2024 12:13

That perhaps accounts for some of the strength then. A Hong Kong based hedge fund with its interest held entirely by derivative. Hmmmmm back at you.

Have they spotted the sleight of hand on the EBITDA comparator? Can they work out what performance improvement TLY was referring to in its TU?

It occurs to me that if you adjust for the £2.9m late payment that slipped from 1H into 2H then net cash/debt deterioration actually accelerated in 2H.

1HFY23 £7.4m net cash (excl lease liabs)
2HFY23 £4.0m net cash
1HFY24 £2.1m adj net cash (adj for £2.9m delayed payment)
2HFY24 £0.8m net debt

i.e. net cash went down by "only" £1.9m in 1H if you add back the £2.9m late payment, but went down by £2.9m in 2H (relative to the adjusted end-1H number).

Gross cash went up by £0.6m in 2H, so gross debt must have gone up by (around) £0.6m to (around) £3.1m presumably if net debt was unchanged from (unadjusted) end-1H, meaning they would have £1.9m debt capacity left on their £5m facility.

So I make that £2.3m gross cash at end-FY24 and £1.9m further debt capacity for a total of £4.2m liquidity vs an FY24 net cash burn of £4.8m. Hmmmmmm.

[nobbygnome] 13/5/2024 11:45

Just seen Trafalgar have bought over a million more shares. Shall we listen to the trolls here or an existing II who continues to increase their holding. Hmmmmm

[nobbygnome] 13/5/2024 11:41

No…it just keeps going up; you trolls need to try harder. Unfortunately for you there are multiple investors who see the value here!

[sikhthetech] 10/5/2024 14:00

NHS England... waiting lists still high

NHS waiting list for treatment remains ‘stubbornly high’ – experts
An estimated 7.54 million treatments were waiting to be carried out at the end of March, relating to 6.29 million patients.






up to 20% of patients on waiting lists treated by private providers

Both parties are in favour of using private providers.


sikhthetech - 21 Apr 2024 - 20:37:20 - 21192 of 21241 Totally Health - 2014
Up to 20% of NHS EC Patients now being treated by Private Hospitals!!

Facts by HSJ and not spins, fabricated stories


Revealed: The ICBs most reliant on private hospitalsBy James Illman23 February 2024 Bath
Up to 20 per cent of NHS elective patients are now being treated by private hospitals in some areas, analysis by HSJ suggests.

[nobbygnome] 10/5/2024 10:57

And the price keeps going up which must be painful for the trolls

[sikhthetech] 09/5/2024 20:52

1gw

"In my opinion the company effectively stripped the cash out of the urgent care companies (Vocare and Greenbrook) it bought to finance acquisitions (among other things). "

TLY BoD set out to build a diversified business model to address healthcare needs. Their add and build strategy.

The point you miss is that to build any business, you need a foundation. At the beginning, TLY managed a placing many times their mcap. Not many companies can achieve that. They started by buying smaller companies like About Health and Premier. They then added further to the Urgent Care side by buying Vocare and GBK. Urgent care side of the diversified business model was virtually built, foundation.

As is sensible in any business, they then incorporated a new side, Totally Healthcare to start to build the 2nd division, Elective Care. Since then they have added in the 3rd division, Corporate Wellbeing. The latter 2 divisions being the higher margins.

Did you expect them to run before they could walk?

Covid hit, the biggest pandemic in 100years. Everyone was impacted but hardest hit was NHS. Some companies like TLY adapted, saw opportunities and went for them, whilst some, like Byot, couldn't see them. It was because of TLY's diversified business that they did ok during covid.

Once covid was under control, the economy opened up. Inflation surged, organisations like the NHS couldn't cope, hence the huge waiting lists.

There was also the impact of Brexit, which was being felt at around same time.

As per usual, you're picking comments without understanding the business model nor the sector/economic/political newsflow.

[microscope] 09/5/2024 11:39

Short and long term downtrend lines broken, right side of bowl becoming more firmly established. Let the trend be your friend, as they say.

Great time to buy imho. :)

Infact backing up exactly what I suggested the other day...

'microscope - 07 May 2024 - 15:24:33 - 21216 of 21239 Totally Health - 2014 onwards - TLY
Good to see the company turning the corner. Nice improvement is ebitda, and much tighter financial control with cash, and debt, under careful management by the company....

....Think the market was kind of expecting this, but had been reluctant to reward the company until seeing it in print.

Looks like something of a bowl on the chart and suspect might get a nice spike before long.....'

[nobbygnome] 09/5/2024 10:37

The price is up again which must be painful for the trolls….

I am no longer bothering to read 1gw’s long boring posts because of his aforementioned flawed analysis on many shares he bought. BYOT went into suspension because of accounting irregularities but that was all fine apparently…

[pierre oreilly] 09/5/2024 10:35

£2k for a nurse for one shift from an agency?

Jeeze, how much do they charge for doctor?

Great for the agency while the nhs pays up, but I suspect they won't be paying that, or anything like that, now the cat is out of the bag.

These agencies are vultures, milking the taxpayer.

I think a review will see the end of 'high profit margin' suppliers. Tly seem to be just too late to move into that area. By the time they adjust there'll be no high profit nhs services, and their returns will be at normal, not ripoff, levels.

[1gw] 09/5/2024 10:29

I think you must have me confused with someone else, Nobby.

You are the one who has talked about "Revenue is vanity" and the thread owner keeps wittering on about giving up "unfavourable" contracts.

I have consistently pointed out the net current liability position on the balance sheet and suggested that this makes it difficult for the company to "switch" from low margin urgent care contracts to relatively higher margin planned care contracts because of the financing implications.

In my opinion the company effectively stripped the cash out of the urgent care companies (Vocare and Greenbrook) it bought to finance acquisitions (among other things). If it loses urgent care contracts with the associated negative working capital benefit then this working capital has to be found elsewhere. They can perhaps cover some of the planned care working capital with invoice financing, but they would still need to repair any hole caused by the money taken out of the urgent care businesses they bought.

If you (and other bulls) still haven't been able to see what the "improved performance" is that they claimed in the TU then maybe it is somewhat illusory? Could they be trying to talk up the shareprice to give themselves options to raise equity funds at a higher price?

[sikhthetech] 08/5/2024 22:22

1gw
"Is the resilience contract the last remaining 111 contract, with all those held by Vocare at the time of acquisition now having been lost or let go?"

It's one contract out of many.
TLY have a diversified model which provides services to HMP, NHS 111 local/national level, Urgent Treatment centres, Elective Care to reduce waiting lists, Company Wellbeing services etc.

NHS at national level is only ONE of their contracts, worth £13m. The other £96m revenue for fy2024 came from their other services.
Mcap £12m





You really are a master at twisting posts. Like I said you make a dodgy 2nd hand car salesman sound honest. You portray yourself as well researched, so why do virtually all your and your mates shares crash? Why do virtually all your and stories turn out to be fiction?

[nobbygnome] 08/5/2024 22:16

He slags off the low margin contracts when it suits him but is now implying they are vital. Hmmmm……what a hypocrite!

[1gw] 08/5/2024 21:24

Is the resilience contract the last remaining 111 contract, with all those held by Vocare at the time of acquisition now having been lost or let go?

Given Vocare's (i.e. Totally's)relatively low ranking, at least according to the DHU summary stats, for how long are they likely to be able to retain the resilience contract (without investment to improve the performance)? What economies of scale have been lost in their 111 operation as the scope has declined?



It's fine focusing on higher margin contracts as long as the company can finance them. Lower margin urgent-care contracts have in the past effectively financed the business through the negative working capital feature, haven't they? We saw the impact on the balance sheet, and cash in particular, when the North West London UTC & various covid-related contracts finished.