Xlmedia Share Discussion Threads

[gargleblaster] 22/3/2018 13:31

Are you buying this dip riv, or waiting for the dust to settle?

[rivaldo] 22/3/2018 13:24

Cheers gargleblaster.

It's also worth remembering the point emphasised at the recent presentation - that a high proportion of XLM's revenues are recurring and come from lifetime shares of revenues from already captured gambling customers. As was stated, XLM could simply shut up shop and still be a very profitable company.

[gargleblaster] 22/3/2018 12:56

Have just read Shares mag article. They flag up a few, in my view not relevant concerns. Firstly why the capital raise when they have cash at bank? My view is because they see plenty of opportunities in the pipeline and want to have the firepower available.

Second they say that with profit margins of 80%,competitors may target their markets. However as Cenkos point out having 2300 websites represents a powerful barrier to entry - imagine the efforts, technology etc a competitor would have sort out to compete.

Third they mention the risks of regulation in the gambling industry. However, this is nothing new, and in any case xlm are well diversified geographically - different regs in different parts of the world. If anything they could benefit from the opening up of markets eg USA.
Will check for other points but post this now!

[waterloo01] 22/3/2018 12:17

Yes 2.25x on one month VIX and yes hold in SIPP and ISA.

9x is just too much leverage for my taste.

[tightfist] 22/3/2018 12:16

Hi Waterloo,I have gone back into SocGen MF69 to hedge my ISA portfolio, at least in part. It's geared at about 9x which is useful, but it is NOT Isa'able.Is VILX geared and ISA'able?Cheers, tightfist

[seans66] 22/3/2018 12:07

My strategy is to continue to add on the dips & auto reinvest the dividends & play the long game - 5-10 years.

[waterloo01] 22/3/2018 11:41

Personally I find having a market short (such VILX) is an excellent hedge against my longs, although I'm also more in cash than I have been since 2009. It's only if you have cash to hand that you can really benefit from any bargains that a crash/correction brings. Doesn't matter if you buy at the bottom, although it helps!

[fozzie] 22/3/2018 11:16

It looks like being a long and difficult year.

[gargleblaster] 22/3/2018 11:13

Yeah - tough market fozzie. Trouble is if you go to cash, even if you are right for a bit - you then don't know when to go back in, and get end up getting whipsawed. Ftse down 10% since peak but some smaller co's are getting taken to the woodshed!

[fozzie] 22/3/2018 10:11

This is happening to a lot of my porty atm Gargle. XLM, RFX, SPSY, OSB etc etc, plus all my oilers struggling to make headway even with a rising and stable oil price. I'm down about 15% from mid Feb, just a daily drip drip even after good/great results. Market is very poor atm can't remember my last blue day.

[gargleblaster] 22/3/2018 10:07

If we close today below 170p it will be the lowest close since mid-November, about 24% from its peak. Since that time we have had a brilliant trading update, great results, positive presentations/webcast, 5 director share purchase and a couple of positive share option exercises. I call that strange!

[malcolmmm] 22/3/2018 10:01

Looks like Trump is getting the trade war with China especially that he wants so it could be a rocky ride.

[scooper72] 22/3/2018 09:51

Don't have any spare cash in my ISA or SIPP but tempted to start a spread bet on this and TAP. Noticed quite a few things have drifted down over last 2 weeks but not thinking to sell like I did in that mini correction back at the start of February.

[oneillshaun] 22/3/2018 09:47

and down we go, we are going way below 170 this week very sad but long term is the key.

[pazzuzu] 22/3/2018 09:29

Some piece in the new today about ut companies threatening to stop using fb as an advertiser, probably doesn't help here. But of course they wont stop using fb, just have to appear to be goodies

[stoph] 22/3/2018 07:53

Tipped in this weeks shares mag at 182.4. An attractive proposition for buyers who understand the risks.

[nocrap] 21/3/2018 22:21

Why do folk make investing seem hard.
With technical jargon.
Ive been investing for a few years.
You just own low p.e undervalued profitable stocks and hold.
Tbh it isnt rocket science.many folk think it is.but it really isnt.
Let the company make money.thats all you truly need to know.

[deltrotter] 21/3/2018 16:52

Great post blueeyes13 - not a holder here but I am in TAP

[gargleblaster] 21/3/2018 14:43

mrnumpty - this listed 4 years ago so you could look at the full 4 year chart. Using a log scale on the chart (crucial imv), the trendline gives fair value at 160p. So you are pretty much right, and in fact on this basis the stock is slightly overvalued!

I prefer a 2 year chart, but you pays your money etc....... On the 2 year, fair value is at 200p. Without getting too technical, I use confidence lines which run above and below the trend line. The current price (about 173p) is two standard deviations from the trendline. By definition that only happens less than 5% of the time - implying that the stock is very attractive at this level. There's the conundrum, overvalued on the 4 year chart, undervalued on a 2 year chart.

There is on course another possibility - that the chart patterns are breaking down! that could be a possibility if we go below support at 170p, which for me is an important line in the sand.

[acamas] 21/3/2018 13:20

If we can climb back to 179p then we are in the channel where the ceiling becomes 211p and the floor of 179p. We have been in this channel for 5 or 6 months. When we regress backwards the ceiling and the floor will adjust down to keep the two channel lines parallel.

I feel we want to see the price return to at least 179p before real progress can be made

[blueeyes13] 21/3/2018 13:07

On days like today, I like to refer to the below 3 links...I have a relatively large holding here along with BUR and TAP so thought it good to have another read to cheer myself up! :-)









I do recommend reading/listening to these and if you have time also reading Chris Mayer's 100 Baggers book which you can either buy or find it for free on the internet.

The case studies are fascinating particularly the draw downs at times on very successful stocks. It's persuaded me to stop using stop losses which recently prevented me from being stopped out on BUR pre-results.

I'm not saying XLM can be a 100 bagger but nearly a 4 bagger since flotation 4 years going is great going...I think we'll be in a good place in 2 or 3 years time.

Best wishes all