Xlmedia Share Discussion Threads

[oneillshaun] 26/7/2024 11:00

It was never going to happen anyway....

[northwards] 23/7/2024 10:24

Good news ? https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/22/google-cancels-plans-to-kill-off-cookies-for-advertisers.html

[tvh123] 12/7/2024 11:05

Handily that possibility is already more than accounted for in the valuation, especially given that the US remains a CPA led market.

[oneillshaun] 12/7/2024 07:59

Well I am sure Bet365 will pull out in the near future, they are not into burning money and it seems the cash burn in the US market is crazy.

[tvh123] 11/7/2024 16:42

Rev share deals were signed with bet365 and betway last year

[oneillshaun] 11/7/2024 10:13

Did XL one comment about having a revue share deal in the US with Betway?https://www.gambling911.com/gambling/betway-plans-exit-us-market-entirely-.html

[tvh123] 05/7/2024 09:48

19m USD net cash at FY24E excluding any shareholder returns, with a further 7.5m USD consideration due in FY25E and a potential 5m USD earnout. So the US business is trading at c.1x EBITDA without the potential earnout.

The captial return may be in the form of a tender offer, buying a specific number of shares at a set price as opposed to an open market buy back or one-off dividend.

[exfortisd] 05/7/2024 09:23

If the US biz can sustainably generate that EBITDA, they should just sit on it and pay a 20% dividend every year

[catabrit] 04/7/2024 11:02

Just to update people on my thinking after speaking to management who are very candid and trying to do the best possible job they can to maximise shareholder value. Cavendish expect net cash of circa 19m USD by year end. Management didn't scoff at that so I think we can broadly say it is directionally correct. Obviously this is quite a bit below expectations but reflects the earn outs and some one-off costs to rightsize the business going forwards. The US biz was assembled for circa 70m USD but isn't worth anywhere near that today. The expected rollout of sports betting has been slower than many industry insiders anticipated, including the CEO who was attracted to the job because of the combination of growth + turnaround. There is tonnes of upside optionality if the rollout happens faster than people expect but this could take some time (18-24 months). As it stands, the US Biz is worth about 5x EBITDA so circa 25m USD. Add the net cash and you get to about min 44m USD of total EV with some upside optionality albeit low probability in the short to medium term. That is about 35m GBP so circa 20% above the current share price So whilst I think there is value here, I think it is quite a bit less than I expected.

[northwards] 03/7/2024 16:30

This looks potentially very helpful.

[farmergeorge] 03/7/2024 12:55

oneillshaun good find, thanks for posting. So,something positive and let's hope XLM benfits.

[oneillshaun] 03/7/2024 12:37

https://www.gamblingnews.com/news/google-to-expand-ad-policy-for-dfs-and-lottery-couriers-in-the-us/

[plymouth333] 01/7/2024 17:37

P/e of 10 though gives valuation of 50M
Or approx 20p, not including the 37.5 sale price

[oneillshaun] 01/7/2024 11:32

Almost missed that trading update:Following the sale of the Europe Sports and Gaming business, Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations is expected to be approximately $5.0 million for FY 2024.Not much of a business leftover.

[northwards] 27/6/2024 12:55

Indeed. And your buying suggests that a share buy back will not help the share price

[catabrit] 27/6/2024 11:40

I have been buying 100k of these every other day. Cursed myself for not initiating a position at the start of the year when they were at 7p ish (and thanks to Sophia for highlighting the opportunity - I went through some of your posts and saw that you were invested in these which alerted me to it). Very surprised to see them gap down to sub 10p considering the probable tender this year and the cheap / free option on the US biz. It would not surprise me if these guys de-listed to save on costs. They should liquidate, frankly.

[northwards] 26/6/2024 08:34

A share buy back doesn't incentivise the average holder. A special divi would. I'd actually suggest a combination.

[oneillshaun] 25/6/2024 07:33

I agree with you on the dividend tax, but let's be honest what is now left in terms of assets and revenue after this deal is paid out?My point being is that it's not much and they will buyback shares and ultimately shareholders don't gain a lot.

[km85] 24/6/2024 20:46

Dividend is taxable mate. At this rage they could buy back 40% of shares with no need to hurt the working capital.

[oneillshaun] 24/6/2024 14:36

Let's see, my feeling is a buyback does not really represent much value for shareholders as we basically have no real assets, so a special dividend would see the money leaving the company

[crankylad] 24/6/2024 14:20

No definitely a special divi plus a small buy back!

[oneillshaun] 24/6/2024 13:46

The last update plus the payout, cash wise things are very good but the question everyone has is will they be doing a buyback in September or a special dividend, my thinking is a buyback.

[farmergeorge] 24/6/2024 12:28

Where can I locate te latest cash position?