Wt Natural Gas Discussion Threads

[937huff26] 29/9/2010 20:41

Gordon 697
NGAS follows the Henry Hub Gas price which is the US market and has little to do with European Gas price which is considerably higher, the amount of GAS rigs in the US has rocketed while industrial production and so demand for power has reduced in line with the economy

[kiwi2007] 10/9/2010 00:00

The mild weather likely led to price declines in the Northeast; prices at the Transcontinental Pipeline's Zone 6 trading point for delivery into New York City fell 16 cents during the report week, from $4.23 per MMBtu to $4.07 per MMBtu. Price decreases in the Northeast ranged from 2 cents to 22 cents; two trading points eked out small gains in price.

Declines in natural gas demand also likely put downward pressure on prices and possibly tempered price increases. Demand remained low on Monday, as a result of the Labor Day weekend, before rebounding somewhat on Tuesday, according to estimates by BENTEK Energy. During the report week ending Wednesday, September 8, total demand was down 8 percent from the previous week, a result of the mild weather and the Labor Day holiday. Demand for natural gas for power generation fell about 14 percent, and industrial demand fell about 3 percent from the previous week, according to BENTEK's estimates. Compared with the comparable week last year, total demand was down about 2 percent.

[gordon697] 09/9/2010 20:22

This must sound a really naive request, but can any of you explain how, when this one continues to plunge, Centrica and the rest are warning of higher gas prices come the winter?

I've been biding my time with NGAS for nigh on a year now folowing an incautious response to a share tip (no offence, Mr Questor, you've done me proud elsewhere) and despite reading up on contango and backwardation etc - which will keep me out of ETCs until I know a lot more about their impacts - I just can't understand how the futures price of gas is so low, when the retail market is so punchy.

Any prognoses for the medium-term gratefully received!

[eric gardener] 30/8/2010 21:49

hi can anyone tell me how well this actually tracks the price of gas? i know it isn't a relative thing etc due to rolling futures but does it track like oilb?

I thought it's best to ask here as charts don't tell the whole story.

Surely it can't be a bad long term bet?

buy a load and leave it imo.

[mrbitt] 29/8/2010 15:46

posted on iii by Wig123

[lcairns1] 29/8/2010 15:43

won't be long before gas will be free, by the look of it

[wow400] 26/8/2010 11:20

A good time to get in before the winter perhaps?

[14tommo] 06/8/2010 18:32

Any sign of any hurricanes yet?

[troll4] 30/6/2010 10:19

It will take some hurricane to lift me back to break even on this one!

[maty] 30/6/2010 09:59

This looks too good with Hurricanes coming and tis the season to be jolly

M

[traderabc] 15/6/2010 17:04

Watch this soar, I bailed out and bought Encana Corp with my losses.

[dasv] 15/6/2010 16:42

looking good c2i. You still in here? (I am)

[contrarian2investor] 19/5/2010 20:37

Hi all,

What a difference a day makes.
------------------------------c2i

MAY 18, 2010, 10:13 A.M. ET.US GAS: Futures Climb In Anticipation Of Weather-Related Demand

By Jason Womack Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Natural-gas futures moved higher Tuesday as traders buy back contracts in anticipation of summer and increased weather-related demand for the fuel, despite high levels of natural gas in storage.

Natural gas for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange recently traded 7.1 cents, or 1.61%, higher at $4.469 a million British thermal units. The front-month contract reached a high of $4.494/MMBtu earlier in the session.

Natural gas prices have been moving steadily higher as traders, who had bet on falling prices, buy back contracts ahead of summer -- which brings more demand for the fuel for electricity generation and the potential supply disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico from hurricanes.

Gene McGillian, an analyst with Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn., said the natural gas market appears to have discounted high levels of natural gas in storage and spring weather, which has tempered demand for the fuel.

"The market is turning its attention to the next season," McGillian said, noting that the "pressure is on the upside right now."

However, high levels of natural gas in storage are also expected to limit price advances.

Jim Ritterbusch, president of the energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday that high gas inventories "will quell commercial buying interest at these higher levels."

Natural gas in U.S. storage for the week ended May 7 stood at 2.089 trillion cubic feet -- 4.9% higher than last year and 18.4% above the five-year average. Inventories have swelled this year as producers ramped up drilling in prolific onshore natural gas fields known as shales and winter heating demand for gas faded.

At the same time, weather forecasts are predicting warmer-than-normal temperatures across key natural gas demand centers. The National Weather Service is predicting above-normal temperatures in the Northeast, the Midwest and in parts of the Southeast and Texas from May 23 to May 27.

"Gas keeps pushing higher, apparently on hopes that an expected heat wave between May 22nd and May 26th covering most of the Midwest and East Coast will generate enough cooling demand to make a significant dent" in stored gas, Mike Fitzpatrick, an analyst with MF Global in New York wrote in a note to clients.
---------------------------
US GAS: Futures Tumble On Global Economic Concerns
05/19/2010 02:21PM


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures tumbled Wednesday on global economic concerns that roiled the broader commodities and equities markets.

Natural gas for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 18.4 cents lower, or 4.24%, at $4.158 a million British thermal units after reaching a low of $4.131/MMBtu earlier in the day.

Natural gas futures slid on concerns about Europe's debt crisis and a report that U.S. mortgage delinquencies rose to a record in the first quarter. Gas traders have been eyeing economic data closely for signs of a rebound that would boost energy demand.

"Industrial demand has been the biggest Achilles heel for natural gas for the last couple of years," said Chris Jarvis, the president of Caprock Risk Management, an energy investment and analysis firm.

Ample supplies and moderate temperatures were also pressuring gas prices lower Wednesday. But if market expectations of a smaller-than-normal build in U.S. gas inventories for last week pan out, gas futures could pare losses on Thursday.

Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show a below-average build in gas inventories because of brisk temperatures in the major gas-consuming regions last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that 78 billion cubic feet of gas were added to storage during the week ended May 14, according to the average prediction of 23 analysts and traders in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT. The storage estimate falls short of last year's 100 bcf build in storage for the same week and the five-year average build for that week, which was 93 bcf.

If the estimate is correct, inventories as of May 14 will total 2.167 trillion cubic feet, about 17% above the five-year average and 3.6% above last year's level for the same week.

Unusual late-season cold last week sparked demand for natural gas for heating, leading to a modest injection of gas into storage, traders and analysts predicted. Rising industrial demand as the economy improves is also boosting gas consumption, and gas producers are starting to pull back in response to low prices, said Bill Costello, the president of Bull Run Energy Research in Boston, Mass.

"We do think industrial demand is improving and we believe we are starting to see some signs of activity moderating on the drilling side," Costello wrote in a note to clients.


-By Christine Buurma, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2143; [e-mail]

[contrarian2investor] 18/5/2010 12:11

Hi all,

This could have some impact of Natural Gas usage and increase in price.
----------

May 18, 2010
General Motors to offer natural-gas versions of vans to fleets



c2i

EDIT
MAY 17, 2010, 10:09 A.M. ET.US GAS: Futures Rise On Hurricane Forecasts, Economic Data


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures rose Friday, as traders looked ahead to a stronger-than-normal U.S. hurricane season and on signs of continued improvement in the U.S. economy.

Natural gas for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.5 cents, or 2% higher, at $4.397 a million British thermal units after opening 1.3 cents higher at $4.325/MMBtu.

"There a lot of indications that it will be an above normal year for hurricanes, and above last year," said Travis Hartman, a meteorologist at EarthSat in Rockville, Md. He said warm temperatures in the Atlantic combined with other factors "all point to more storms." The hurricane season begins next month.

Aaron Studwell, a meteorologist of WeatherInsight in Houston, forecast between 14 and 16 named hurricanes this year, though he said other analysts are predicting as many as 18. The average number of hurricanes is 10.

"We usually try to price in some kind of a premium at least at the beginning of the [hurricane] season and I think that's happening," said Phil Flynn, an analyst with PFGBest in Chicago.

Natural gas prices were also boosted by economic data Monday morning that showed a continued improvement in the U.S. economy. The New York Federal Reserve Bank's May Manufacturing index showed a continued improvement in business conditions this month, though a slower pace than in April.

Despite coming in lower than expected, the data spurred a run of short-covering in natural gas futures Monday morning, traders said, as traders retreated from bets that gas prices would fall.

The amount of bets against natural gas is still high, traders said, because futures are near the top end of a range between roughly $4.40/MMBtu and $3.80/MMBtu in place since March. Bets against gas have tended to rise as it approaches the top end of that range.

Gas supplies remain abundant. Total gas in U.S. storage as of May 7 was 2.089 trillion cubic feet, about 18.4% above the five-year average and 4.9% above last year's level for the same week.

-By Edward Welsch, Dow Jones Newswires; 613-237-0669; [e-mail]

[kiwi2007] 27/4/2010 02:08

Anyone any ideas on companies where NGAS is a major component of their input costs?

Power generation?

[jamesiebabie] 19/4/2010 20:57

Blue,

Sorry, I have to totally disagree with you about DRX. What has the share price on DRX been doing for a few years and why? Where is the bottom for DRX and why? I do post on the DRX thread if you care to ellaborate and I do not hold a postion either long or short on DRX for your info.

There is too much new legislation being banded about like landfill tax costs affecting the PFA produced. That will directly hit the bottom line of DRX.

AIMHO please
DYOR.

[traderabc] 19/4/2010 20:36

This one may be worth a punt

[bluelynx] 19/4/2010 20:32

It's certainly safer than gambling on NGAS, this ETF's is only good for very short term trades, if you get your timing right you could make good money.

DRX has the negatives priced in, very good risk long term compared to any Natural Gas ETF, contango is a KILLER.

[jamesiebabie] 19/4/2010 20:19

DRX safer - you having a laugh? There are very many dark clouds hanging over coal fired power stations, not just DRX but all. Gas fired power stations are the future, hence why the UK is building them and not coal fired power stations.

[traderabc] 19/4/2010 20:14

I look at the graph and it makes me think of Goldman Sacs.

[bluelynx] 19/4/2010 20:04

Yes I thought that - but Natural Gas ETF's will distroy your invested capital via Contango, I find it much better to buy companies that will benefit from rising Gas prices, don't suffer from contango and pay a dividend - companies like Drax Group. Much safer.

[traderabc] 19/4/2010 19:59

If I Were Buying Energy, I Would Buy Natural Gas
"If I were buying energy, I would probably buy natural gas rather than oil just because it's so depressed. I don't like to buy when things are up. I like to buy things when down, when people are unhappy that's when I like to buy things."

Jim Rogers

[contrarian2investor] 07/4/2010 09:06

Hi all,

Natural Gas Futures Fall Most in Two Weeks on Supply Outlooks

By Reg Curren

April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas fell the most in more than two weeks in New York on speculation that supplies of the power plant and industrial fuel will be ample to meet U.S. requirements.

An Energy Department report due April 8 may show that stockpiles rose 28 billion cubic feet last week, based on the median of eight analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The five-year average change for the week is a gain of 11 billion. The department also raised its 2010 production forecast.

"We've mastered the art of gas production," said Michael Rose, director of trading at Angus Jackson Inc. in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. "There's really nothing out there to move us around. Demand right now doesn't warrant prices higher than they are."

Natural gas for May delivery declined 18.1 cents, or 4.2 percent, to settle at $4.096 per million British thermal units at 2:56 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest single-day decline since March 18. The contract is down 26 percent this year.

Inventories were 11 percent above the five-year average in the week ended March 26, the department reported on April 1.

Futures extended their decline after the Energy Department raised its forecast for nationwide gas output by 3.7 percent in 2010 as the number of rigs searching for the fuel advanced.

Output will average 60.87 billion cubic feet a day in 2010, up 3.7 percent from 58.72 billion estimated last month, the department said today in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.

"The market is going to have to price lower to rein in production," said Kyle Cooper, a managing director at energy consultant IAF Advisors in Houston. "Rig counts are higher and demand hasn't recovered nearly as much as supply has held in there."

More Gas Rigs

The number of gas rigs working in the U.S. has increased 43 percent to 949 since July, according to Baker Hughes Inc.

The department increased its outlook for consumption by 1.4 percent to 63.78 billion cubic feet a day from 62.93 billion estimated last month.

Advances in drilling technologies may have doubled U.S. reserves of natural gas, Energy Secretary Steven Chu said in a speech today at a conference in Washington.

Proved reserves of gas were 244.7 trillion cubic feet at the end of 2008, according to the department's Energy Information Administration.

New Drilling Techniques

Producers such as Fort Worth, Texas-based XTO Energy Inc., which is being acquired by Exxon Mobil Corp., are using horizontal drilling techniques and rock fracturing to unlock gas deposits from shale fields in Texas, Louisiana and Pennsylvania.

Those new deposits helped to push total U.S. gas output to a record 26.4 trillion cubic feet in 2009, up 2.4 percent from the previous year, according to the Energy Department.

Futures gained 10 percent in the five days ended yesterday after government and private reports showed the economic recovery strengthening. The contract also climbed yesterday on speculation that revisions to Energy Department gas output data, scheduled to be released on April 29, will trim U.S. production estimates in the lower 48 states by about 1 percent.

A Labor Department report released on April 2, when stock and commodity markets were closed for Good Friday, showed an increase of 162,000 in employment in March, including 17,000 positions at factories.

More manufacturing would help to revive industrial demand for gas, which accounts for about 29 percent of consumption. The worst recession since the 1930s cut purchases by factories, steel mills and chemical plants by 7.7 percent in 2009.

Wholesale natural gas at the benchmark Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana, rose 22.89 cents, or 5.8 percent, to $4.1557 per million Btu, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Gas futures volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 223,208 contracts as of 3:35 p.m., compared with a three-month daily average of 228,000. Volume totaled 210,665 yesterday. Open interest was 837,529 contracts, compared with the three-month average of 802,000. The exchange has a one-business-day delay in reporting open interest and full volume data.

c2i

[wow400] 29/3/2010 15:35

Is this the bottom....?