Wt Natural Gas Discussion Threads

[eric gardener] 08/12/2010 19:31

yes I wonder if tyhe intraday drop flushed out a few sellers.

If the decline here has any similarities with the crude drop of a couple of years ago which I believe it does then this is definately a 9 month trade and I'd certainly not close out until ngas is at least double where it is now in fact I'm waiting for the right time to add.

I haven't gone in heavy here just a sensible amount (the best ones are the ones you don't check every day ;-)

To me it's a long term play and it'll make money mark my words!

[chopsy] 08/12/2010 17:07

An impressive intraday recovery.

Now we can see on the chart in the header we did just creep out of the grey 5 yr reference band, but we are back in. If we are going to stay in that refence zone, then underground stores are shortly going to have to plummett. That'll get them going!

[contrarian2investor] 07/12/2010 18:37

Hi all,

I am holding LNGA. I am expecting some positive appreciation over the next month or so. Given potential drawdowns during the cold snap in the US. Most NGAS have been very performers over the past 12 months. Strewth even Boone Picheks is losing money on is Natural Gas plays.

News just out:

Natural Gas Futures Decline in New York on Ample U.S. Supplies for Winter
By Christine Buurma - Dec 7, 2010 6:14 PM GMT



------------
Furthermore lots of deals recently in the NGAS space which are hard to decipher. Are they for synergies, due to margins tightening or opportunistic predators making shrewd investments at the bottom of the cylce?

December 7, 2010, 6:59 am Mergers & Acquisitions
AGL Resources to Buy Nicor for $2.4 Billion




c2i

[brando69] 07/12/2010 15:13

chart feels like it's bottomed out. cold winter can only help demand for gas

[eric gardener] 07/12/2010 15:10

and thats the way it should be!

[brando69] 07/12/2010 14:40

but looks like we're in a minority!

[brando69] 07/12/2010 10:50

me too - totally agree eric

[eric gardener] 07/12/2010 10:14

gone long on these - imo the best offering for the making of money in the next 6 months.

[chopsy] 06/12/2010 15:35

I like to think we called the bottom right. I've been accumulating over a few weeks, but in very small volume, more for fun than anything. No doubt there will be down days but I think we will see 40 soon enough.

[eric gardener] 05/12/2010 18:46

just seems to be the hardest thing to speculate on.

What good is it being right and having an etf ever erroding in value due to contango, lippage, backwardisation etc.

[chopsy] 05/12/2010 17:24

During the negotiations in 2008 Ukraine proposed that the price of natural gas for Ukraine should increase by $21.5 to $201 per 1,000 cubic meters, and the transit fee by $0.3 to $2 per 1,000 cubic meters pumped 100 kilometres (62 mi). Gazprom proposed that Naftohaz should buy its natural gas at $250 per 1,000 cubic meters starting from 2009.[16] Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin said that the $250 per 1000 cubic meters price was a "humanitarian gesture" to Ukraine considering that Russia buys gas from Central Asia for $340 and that the European price level is $500 per 1000 cubic meters. Later, Naftohaz said it was ready to pay $235.[17] Negotiations between Gazprom and Naftohaz were interrupted on 31 December 2008.[18] While Gazprom claimed that Naftohaz would not negotiate, Ukraine said that the negotiations were interrupted at Gazprom's initiative.[19][20]
This from wikipedia. See how confusing it all is with the various units. $/1000 cubic metres seems standard, but we have p/kwh, $/MMBtu etc!!! wtf?

[edit] Natural gas prices in South America
In South America, the second largest supplier of natural gas is Bolivia. The price which Bolivia is paid for its natural gas is roughly US$ 3.25 to Brazil and $US 3.18 to Argentina.[21] Other sources state that Brazil pays between US$ 3.15/MMBtu and US$ 3.60/MMBtu (not including US$ 1.50/MMBtu in Petrobras extraction and transportation costs).[22] The price of gas in the US as a whole is between US$ 5.85/MMBtu (May 21, 2006), US$ 7.90/MMBtu (April 2006)[23] & US$6.46/MMBtu (June 2006).[24] Though several years ago the price of natural gas spiked at $14 in California[25] due to lack of pipeline capacity to and within California, and also due to electricity outages.[26] While according to Le Monde, Brazil and Argentina pay US$2 per thousand cubic meter of gas, which costs between $12 to $15 in California.[25]

[chopsy] 05/12/2010 17:12

Annoyingly, the price charts I have found for UK wholesale live gas price are in p/KWH, which is not easily comparable at all. Anyone change this with $/1000cubic metres, or the us units?

[chopsy] 03/12/2010 13:11

This should go up now the working gas in underground storage starts to fall.

[chopsy] 25/11/2010 18:07

Not sure about UK gas prices, where should we get that info? A live chart would be splendid. Can we source on for spob to insert?

Things are very different abroad (US) which is what the price of this et is based on. There have been several changes there to push the price down including reduced demand (recession) and new technology for improving recovery of gas, including shale gas etc, which have increased or threaten to increase supply.

However a supposed glut can turn around quick, esp in a v cold winter.

Russia/Ukraine/Poland ME/Turkey/Western Europe/North Sea/UK/LNG terminals all very different to the US situation. And I don't think there is any easy arb.

[trewsa] 25/11/2010 16:02

Why are the energy companies raising prices saying that wholesale price has increased by 25% since March?

[chopsy] 19/11/2010 16:27

That's a good day for us!

[chopsy] 19/11/2010 08:18

The red line is plateauing off! Wait till winter really kicks in!

[chopsy] 18/11/2010 09:24

Thanks for that. I bought the story and I'm going to try to buy on the dips all the way up. So far I have only a very small stake, and a close enough stop loss. Are you in here with a shout?

[traderabc] 17/11/2010 18:10

I think our chart represents a tenth of a thermal unit or something, often etfs trade at a tenth of whatever unit is used on the main exchanges. I think they do this to improve liquidity of their stocks.

[chopsy] 17/11/2010 17:18

So why does our chart say 0.3, rather than 3.0???

[chopsy] 17/11/2010 17:16

Oh, yes, thanks for that. On IG it has gone from 29 to 30, so I'm up one point. Wish they'd all put the decimal in the same place!

[traderabc] 17/11/2010 17:05

I understand this is priced in USD


I believe that is the case, I think it's up 10 cents today, from $2.90 to $3.00.

[chopsy] 17/11/2010 16:03

Wow, up a whole cent (I understand this is priced in USD, is that correct?)

[eric gardener] 17/11/2010 12:42

well it's been "bottoming" for nearly 2 years so it should find one soon.

I might buy some just for a laugh