Wt Natural Gas Discussion Threads

[badtime] 16/2/2011 09:22

tealeaves job

[sarscars] 14/2/2011 21:58

bought some early today could not resist at these low prices, looks good for a upturn anytime now , looking at the chart stay positive dont be put off by the gloom and doom merchants ,

[ferrism] 14/2/2011 21:04

I'm not much of a chartist but it looks bad to me (select the day option - D). I'm willing to listen to the views of others. The cataclysmic prognosis is down to the the fatally flawed structure of the product. I can't really say any more. This ETF forces an investor to constantly buy high and sell low. It just doesn't make sense unless you look at a very short term investment.

[brando69] 14/2/2011 20:37

what's wrong with that chart ferrism?

[ferrism] 14/2/2011 19:41

followed by a quadruple, quintuple etc. Trust me, zero is inevitable. As they say, do the maths.
This ETF has little to do with the value of the commodity.
Oh dear, look what's coming......

[brando69] 14/2/2011 16:45

could be a triple bottom forming on the other hand

[chopsy] 14/2/2011 09:10

Well I count myself lucky to have gotten out alive, in a very small profit position. I'm sure lots of the bulls are hurting now.

[ferrism] 14/2/2011 08:46

I think a lot of people were and continue to do so.

[chopsy] 14/2/2011 08:12

If what you say is correct, why weren't we all shorting it from 100? or perhaps you were?

[ferrism] 12/2/2011 11:59

Hi brando69. I agree this is not a company on AIM or any other market. The problem is that the value of this ETF equals the value of the options it holds at any time. It doesn't actually hold the commodity itself. It works by constantly rolling over those options every month. It's forced to do that by its structure. The problem is that the rollover costs and the depreciating options means it must lose all its value over time unless there is a very dramatic change. If you look at explanations of contango and backwardation I think you may be horrified by the impact.

[brando69] 12/2/2011 10:35

don't see any logic in that ferrism

natural gas is not a company on aim... it can't go bust/bankrupt/lose all its value, unless the market starts to give it away for free.

[ferrism] 12/2/2011 08:44

Yes, on its way to 0. That being the logical conclusion for this type of "investment." If we think about it logically it becomes a case of when it loses all its value, not if.
I tend to think of this type of ETF like this.... imagine I had to buy insurance. I pay a price and sit back. Then the insurance company calls a month later to tell me that my policy has been superseded by another which gives exactly the same cover but costs more. I can trade in my old policy but, being a month old, it has little value. Every month they do the same thing.
OK, it's not a direct analogy but it does the job! This ETF is actually worse than that. Imagine how excited a holder would be if the price of Natural Gas went up ...... and how disappointed he would be to find he's back on the same treadmill.
I suppose it's good for periods of less than a month!

[chopsy] 11/2/2011 17:05

Heading for 20?

[chopsy] 10/2/2011 15:04

The rising trend sections of the graph seem to be getting slightly longer but also flatter. Soon they might just be sideways pauses between the falls.

[traderabc] 10/2/2011 11:31

Not helping Encana's share price for some reason. Looks like the Chinese understand that dirt cheap natural gas is an anomaly when crude is trading close to $100.



PetroChina Buys Encana's Cutbank Stake for $5.4 Billion
By John Duce and Jeremy van Loon - Feb 10, 2011 9:03 AM GMT+0000



PetroChina Co., the country's biggest energy producer, agreed to buy a 50 percent stake in Encana Corp.'s Cutbank Ridge gas assets in Canada for C$5.4 billion ($5.4 billion) in its largest overseas acquisition.

The purchase is PetroChina's first of gas assets in North America and takes energy acquisitions by Chinese companies to about $46 billion since the start of 2010 as they compete for global resources with South Korean and Indian rivals. State- controlled PetroChina is paying about 20 percent more than the U.S. benchmark gas price, analyst Gordon Kwan estimates.

[casino444] 10/2/2011 06:26

there is some positives for me its good to see the recent price drop as this gives me the chance of buying more stock at lower prices , still a longer term high gain hold in my view

[traderabc] 08/2/2011 15:34

Gold & Energy: 70/30 Long Short Tactics

Stewart Thomson

Feb 8, 2011

1. When you are involved in a roaring bull market, a great number of imaginary views come into existence around you. Great care must be taken so you don't become enveloped in these imaginary dreams, and then find yourself destroyed by nightmares of reality.

[traderabc] 07/2/2011 16:16

If this doesn't find some support very soon I'll be joining you chopsy.

[chopsy] 07/2/2011 12:20

Closed all positions friday, chart looks weak now.

[traderabc] 02/2/2011 09:06

Seems to have found support again, should go to 0.35-0.37 in the next week or so.

[chopsy] 25/1/2011 18:20

spob; the NGAS spot prices on metals.com (see FEP BB header) correlate much better with our NGAS ETF, than the nymex prices above. Can you copy those charts here too, please. TIA

[ferrism] 24/1/2011 08:11

chopsy - I think it's normal to see gas in storage plummet around this time. We've had 2 consecutive cold winters. About this time last year storage went to the bottom of the five year range and it still left gas prices looking weak. I guess it's because there is so much capacity available to produce gas.

[chopsy] 21/1/2011 19:58

Working gas in underground storage is now plummeting, left the upper trendline, but the price (HH) doesn't seem to be rising??? NGAS ETF responds, though.

[casino444] 20/1/2011 17:21

would be nice if we can get over the the next hurdle 0.400 soon then push on upwards ' its going the right way up thats the main thing at the moment, recently bought shares in this company for a longer term investment so was not looking for a quick profit and nothing and nobody has changed my mind as of yet to decide otherwise