Wt Natural Gas Discussion Threads

[brando69] 03/3/2011 21:11

all i ask is a little bounce to .33, then i'll be out at even stevens

[ferrism] 02/3/2011 19:59

Demolition? Yes. Controlled? Maybe not!

[traderabc] 02/3/2011 13:14

'The smart money is moving in now'


The 'smart money' has left the building, now the controlled demolition.
Still long but not for long.

[chopsy] 02/3/2011 09:13

Well that WAS short lived. Chance 2 to get back in, if you believe the short term trend has now changed.

[ferrism] 28/2/2011 21:02

Time to inject some reality. Doom, gloom, it's a dead cat bounce, smart money still shorting etc.

[beeks of arabia] 28/2/2011 14:53

The smart money is moving in now, abc.


No, not you silly!

;)

[traderabc] 28/2/2011 14:34

Look! It's pretending to go up.

[chopsy] 24/2/2011 18:09

Just a touch on the lower line now heading toward breaking the upper line at the turn.

[ferrism] 24/2/2011 16:45

Gas in storage was exactly as analysts expected which explains the fall then?

[coincall] 24/2/2011 11:46

A quick look at the working gas in underground storage 5 year trade range in the header above, there appears to be a break through about to happen in the lower range line suggesting shortage of supply in store. Dare I say this must be a good time to buy more - but like traderabc and others, I also have a headache from my purchases at higher levels!

[ferrism] 24/2/2011 08:52

More false bottoms than a magician's wardrobe.

[traderabc] 24/2/2011 08:48

Lol! This is the bounce, maybe, perhaps, if only!

[chopsy] 24/2/2011 08:35

In my style and game plan, I should be getting back in now, but you guys have opened my eyes! I think I'll stay well clear just now. Now watch it rocket!

[ferrism] 23/2/2011 22:31

Tomorrow should be interesting. We're in the middle of rolling over the options (I think it's spread over four days) and the EIA stats are due at 10:30 EST. Analysts reckon on a draw of 81Bn. We can but hope it's significantly larger.

[ferrism] 23/2/2011 22:28

Thanks ZUTALORS. What an apt quote. Troilus & Cressida, I believe, pretending I hadn't looked it up on the internet!

[zutalors] 23/2/2011 22:05

Fascinating that one of the most dire trading instruments out there should produce one of the most interesting and civilized threads on this board. I particularly respect post 256. NGAS brings this to mind :

"Time hath, my lord, a wallet at his back,
Wherein he puts alms for Oblivion,"

[traderabc] 23/2/2011 13:14

perhaps you have sold

Not yet, some support here, maybe.

[ferrism] 23/2/2011 11:23

Thanks traderabc. I appreciate your empathy. Yes, if only NGAS were a true tracker!
I've thought about your coal conspiracy on occasions and it rings true. There are also conspiracy theories regarding the oil industry. It's along the lines of the oil companies not having sufficient exposure to Natural Gas yet, meaning that they would lose more on the subsequent oil price fall if they were to allow the gas price to rise. They are all interesting theories but not much comfort.
I see the bid is just under .28 so perhaps you have sold already. Either way, I wish you the best with your decision.

[traderabc] 23/2/2011 10:36

Thank you ferrism, for your well thought out analysis, and blunt honesty.
I'm sorry to hear that you are in NGSP heavily.I know the feeling of being in too heavily and it going against you. I've done the same a few times with spread betting in the past, never again.
If ngas or ngsp were true tracking etfs we would have little to worry about as eventually (1 or 2 years?) we'd be at least able to get out at break even.
My understanding is that these etfs will time decay far too much to ride out a protracted period of weakness (a real possibility)
I'm looking to bail out today when it breaks below 0.28, I'm going to have to admit defeat and get out, even though I'm almost sure this will bounce a little soon, the thing has gone straight down for a month, it sorely needs to bounce, if only for a day or two.

JP Morgue is at work here(imo) as they are an agent for the US gov I'm wondering if the reason for this long period of weakness is politically motivated. It has occurred to me that maybe this is a way for the federal government to take US coal out of the US power generation business, a tactic of a 'green' economic fascism perhaps?

There have been rolling blackouts in the US recently, they appear to be barely able to generate enough electricity for their country during peak periods, perhaps the plan is to force coal electricity generators to convert over to nat gas, maybe that is the reason for these manipulated low prices.

[kiwi2007] 23/2/2011 07:29

At least short term there's probably more supply than demand it seems.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures Tuesday ended at their lowest levels since mid-November on anticipation of declining weekly draws from storage and a moderating gas-heating demand outlook..........the market is "looking past this little cold-weather spike in the Northeast," said Pax Saunders, an analyst with Houston-based Gelber & Associates. Thursday's weekly U.S. gas storage report should be "incredibly bearish," he said, as milder weather last week likely led power producers to rely less on inventories of the heating fuel.

Despite a more balanced supply-and-demand picture than when winter began, gas prices are still under pressure from depressed market sentiment, as many analysts see supply overwhelming demand once winter's peak consumption period subsides. ....

[ferrism] 22/2/2011 23:18

Well, what can I say, traderabc. I could have written your update myself! I guess you have assumed from my, apparently experienced and knowledgeable, updates
that I was clearly unable to fall for the scam of NGAS. You couldn't be further from the truth. I thought I was being clever a long time ago when I "knew" that gas was oversold, undervalued, cheap ... whatever term you care to use. So I chose to take advantage of my superior knowledge and intellect. Yes, you guessed it. I believed, because I wanted to, that I had found the holy grail. The ETF of my dreams which would allow me to track the inevitable rise of Natural Gas while I sit back and revel in the glory of my infallible expertise. I'm in NGSP in a very big way and feeling the same pain as you. I "know" once again that as soon as I sell there will be the biggest rally in history. At the same time there is nothing that could possibly cause that rally. All my wealth which I built up over the years is being transferred to the gas producers and writers of options and my intransigence just compounds it. There, now I feel better.