Wt Natural Gas Discussion Threads

[traderabc] 22/4/2011 09:05

Amaranth trader given $30m fine for market manipulation


Speculation in commodities like oil and gas is often blamed for their sharp price swings


US regulators have fined a former hedge fund trader $30m (£18.2m) for manipulating the natural gas market.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (Ferc) levied the fine on Brian Hunter, Amaranth's lead energy trader, for violating the Commission's anti-manipulation rules.

The fine comes as President Barack Obama said a team was being assembled to look for fraud in the oil market.

[eric gardener] 21/4/2011 22:55

I don't know how to get in in log, will have a fiddle about.

is the curve simply contango? I was under the impression nat gas was the same price as it was a year ago and ngas should be closer to 0.4. Could be wrong here.

[chopsy] 21/4/2011 22:24

Peak oil, perhaps, but current discovered gas is enough to last 250 years. I don't think demand/supply on it's own will push the price up.

[chopsy] 21/4/2011 22:18

Eric surely your graph shows the first half of a classsic saucer bottom. Can you paste it in log mode? If that shows a straight line down I'd remain scared, but if it shows signs of a plateauing, that's much more encouraging. Selling now (capitulation) is surely entirely the wrong stragegy. Look at the graph in the header. The storage position now is better than last year. Buy on weakness for the next 3 months is what I'd say, but then I'm not going to put my own money where my mouth is. I'm fully invested elsewhere, on high risk equities I'm hoping will multibag!

[ferrism] 21/4/2011 21:34

I don't blame you Eric. Good luck with your future investments. Will you be able to resist looking at NGAS and thinking what a good decision you made when you sold it?

[eric gardener] 21/4/2011 16:22

ferris I expect you are completely right with those points there.


well thats that, I've closed taking a 12% hit inc all costs, I'm not fighting that chart above.

Over the longer term there are no rallies, no movement it looks to me like a river of no return. Just a savings shceme for the issuer, and free commission for your broker.

Although there is no direct comparison due to the rolling futures etc I doubt the actual price of this mickey mouse contract this etf is based on looks anything like that chart. I get the feeling that contango is erroding this at least 10% per year.

Good luck all I shall not be buying any of this shyte ever again!!

[ferrism] 21/4/2011 09:12

Yes that would be good. In the meantime I have a feeling the holders of UNG and all these spin-offs are paying for the hedging of the producers. I haven't quite got my head around it but I think we're the idiots who have allowed the producers to keep churning the stuff out at unsustainable prices. Could that change? I don't know..... as usual. All I do know is that a lot of money is being made (and therefore lost elsewhere) by the options writers.

[eric gardener] 20/4/2011 21:52

my chart has dissapeared I shall re post it


ferris - I'm glad to see one of us on here is up together with these things, I simply bought it cos I thought it would rise, unfortunately the whole experience has been like treading in dog sh*t in a busy high street and having no suitable implement with which to attempt to clean it off the sole of my shoe.

why don't some of these 8000 hedge funds with billions decide to start pumping this up. It must surely have only one way to go from here?

[ferrism] 20/4/2011 15:25

Hi Eric. In answer to post 337 I have a feeling it can go a lot lower. I read, but can't find now, the latest cot report which showed that retail short positions had declined very dramatically in the last few days. Why is that bearish, I (don't) hear you ask. Well, if shorts have been reduced why hasn't the price shot up? I think it just shows on how many different levels this gas market operates. The only certain fact seems to be the direction ... at least of the so-called "trackers."

[traderabc] 20/4/2011 10:52

Wow, how the mighty has fallen.
My exposure to this sector is confined to ENCANA CORP. (Toronto: ECA.TO )
Anyone know of any other (US/Canadian) gas producers worth a look at?

[eric gardener] 20/4/2011 10:14

5 year ngas chart

[eric gardener] 20/4/2011 09:20

If I'd have seen this I'd have never bothered in the first place.

[eric gardener] 19/4/2011 23:43

ferris I don't know, can it drop any further? we're reading about oil making new multi year highs, record petrol and diesel prices, record domestic gas prices and the price of gas is at an all time low.

makes you wonder somewhat.



on the subject of napoleon

[brando69] 19/4/2011 22:51

i'm napoleon bonaparte

yeah yeah yeah

happy days

up again tomorrow

or down

who cares

fiddlydedee

[ferrism] 19/4/2011 22:21

I can empathise with all of that. Watching this festering ETF slowly die is a kind of torture. How long to zero?
By the way, don't forget that everybody else on this board is a figment of our imagination and they're only there in order to make us feel better.

[brando69] 19/4/2011 19:38

oh no, we closed up again.

[ferrism] 19/4/2011 17:30

How are the antidepressants, Eric? Mine seem to be wearing off.

[eric gardener] 19/4/2011 15:19

RAAA!!! get in there it's flying. how easy is this to make money!!

[brando69] 14/4/2011 22:23

oh no, we closed up again.

[eric gardener] 14/4/2011 22:07

well it closed up again which is rather shocking, whatever next. If I ever see profit with these it will be such a shock I will surely sh*t myself.

you have to laugh really.