Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[kpo115] 11/3/2018 08:58

Not had any 'losses on your investments', eh, Minerve?

Another little fib, perhaps?

You must have been incredibly lucky not to have suffered some loss on WPCT when you did that screeching u-turn on the M6 not so long ago. But I'm sure there is some convoluted explanation.

You guys are rapidly losing your credibility.......

[trollwatch] 11/3/2018 00:23

I reckon TAM does fantastically well on his investments because he's much brighter than you trolls. Your just jealous. LOL

I know because I think you told us that you have never lost any money on any share. Gosh you are a really lucky man.

[minerve] 10/3/2018 22:34

What would you rather have?

A witty post or no losses on your investments?

I know which one I have. ;)

An 'empty victory' by AM me thinks.

[rackers1] 10/3/2018 22:20

MFNW is so yesterday's man. His returns in such a dramatic global bull market since brexit at least is unforgivable.

[ltcm1] 10/3/2018 18:59

Let's get to the nub of WPCT. Since launch how have all the biotechs performed in aggregate relative to the biotech index??? It does seem that the biotech's are the weak point, the financials and others having performed a lot better.

[ltcm1] 10/3/2018 18:51

Thanks for the detailed and amusing post TAM. In answer to your questions I would like to set the record straight - my post contained no lies.

The "I've been here before" Woodford defence is from Awkward Corner "Has Woodford lost it." The 1999 reference I made was to the hefty lowering of interest rates after the dot-com bubble blew up. To be totally accurate this took place in early 2000's. Sorry for the date error but the point was correct.

The Woodford "market is in a bubble" speech was last November and easily check able. He seemed to be talking to his income investors but imo if he got the correction he was hoping for it would not help the WPCT fund.

I understand it if you say all the Woodford pronouncements on the economy and his trading history have no bearing on WPCT, that is a valid point of view.

However if he is making errors on his macro calls on the income fund it is quite likely WPCT will be impacted.

What can't be disputed is both funds have performed poorly these last two years so the debate for me is a valid one.

[smicker] 10/3/2018 15:12

hxxps://news.sky.com/story/star-fund-manager-woodford-cuts-atom-stake-amid-1bn-outflows-11283859

[iq151] 10/3/2018 14:40

That's the best and wittiest anti-troll polemic I've ever seen! Thanks TAM.

[ltcm1] 10/3/2018 08:37

WPCT has become so toxic Putin is planning on investing.

[minerve] 10/3/2018 08:34

"tim3 - thanks for the link! Challenging article."

LOL

No problem.

[ltcm1] 10/3/2018 08:33

Does Woodford apply statistical principles to WPCT???

If after three years you find yourself 25% down the statistical evidence is very strong that you have no edge. It is highly unlikely this is random fluctuation given the time and quantity of the loss. In layman's terms it is highly unlikely to be just bad luck if you are 25% down after three years.

The time has therefore come for Mr Woodford to 1) admit to mistakes and reshape WPCT or 2) conclude he has no edge in this field and embark on an orderly winddown of WPCT.

Isn't it time Mr Woodford faced up to the reality that WPCT has a negative expectation and that the medicine is making his patients ill.

[jonwig] 10/3/2018 06:56

tim3 - thanks for the link! Challenging article.

The analysis in the endpts article is pretty convincing. However, I think ...

• the backtesting deals with averages. Within the average there are still big winners offsettingf the 100% losers. Compare with horseracing: some punters are better at picking winners than others. Eventually winners will become increasingly hard to find ... with obvious implications for fund managers such as this one!

• where they say that pharma is being replaced by "increasing complexity towards more complex biological solutions to pressing healthcare problems, such as cell & gene therapy, tissue engineering and regenerative medicine", we mustn't forget that these new companies are also part of the biotech universe.

So, on my second point, I don't think the article has massive implications for WPCT and similar investors but, as tim3 says, they do have for "big pharma". And their share prices are already reflecting this.

[tim 3] 09/3/2018 23:01

Worrying especially considering how many equity income funds seem to have them as a core holding!

[minerve] 09/3/2018 22:23

When I mentioned pharma was an industry in terminal decline somebody marked me down.

I suggest, if they are clever enough, they read this and then come back and tell me where they are wrong!

hxxps://endpts.com/pharmas-broken-business-model-an-industry-on-the-brink-of-terminal-decline/

[rackers1] 09/3/2018 20:33

Hahahaha ltcm it seems as if you got my stalker on your back now.The low life loss making pig filth really has no shame

[ltcm1] 09/3/2018 19:14

Solonic my abilities or lack of them are of no importance, it is Mr Woodford and WPCT we are discussing here.

If someone wants to put the bull case for WPCT I will be only too glad to hear it.

My worry is that his funds seem to be full of 'mom and pop' money and that there is too much faith placed in the cult of the star fund manager.

Additionally there is no evidence in support of Woodford's record with unquoted biotechs, many of whom seem to be just a few miles from his office!

I would like to believe the Woodford story but as Jonwig and cynicalbear have highlighted, there are concerns with the technical operation of WPCT in addition to doubts over Woodfords scientific expertise.

[daffyjones] 09/3/2018 18:09

Purple bricks is hardly "hugely up today". It's up 6% on the day, still down for the week

[solonic] 09/3/2018 12:40

ltcm1. Do you think that it is prudent for people to be taking investment advice from someone who is so functionally innumerate as yourself and whose apprehension of the universe is so skewed as to render all your predictions incorrect?

[ltcm1] 09/3/2018 12:10

Has Neil Woodford lost it???

"Look I've been here before, in 1999", is the under fire starvestor's rebuttal.

Point is, in 1999 it was Greenspan's 3% interest cut that saved the traditional companies Neil was investing in and those interest levers simply aren't available today.

Anyway none of his "market is in a bubble" theory will help WPCT, if asset values deflate it won't help WPCT one bit.

Just a heads up that Neil pitches all his market theories to his legions of income investors and if they come true it won't be good news for WPCT.

[minerve] 09/3/2018 12:02

Itcm1 does have a point. Pharma/biotech generally have been proven to be an industry of diminishing returns. New tech will eventually replace it.

[ltcm1] 09/3/2018 11:54

IQ51 it's more a case of "nothing shall come of nothing my Lord" when it comes to RM2.

What gets me about struggling Neil Woodford is he can't possibly understand the science behind the WPCT investments. Worryingly for Neil, many people think Biotech is all a bit dated. Why take a pill with all those side effects when a bot the size of a grain of sand can travel inside the body and eliminate a tumour.

All the smart Google money is going into these tiny robots leaving Neil holding some very expensive wallpaper.

[iq151] 09/3/2018 10:39

ltcm1 just can't get anything right, especially easily available figures. RM2 is up 331% today so far. Along with more rises on Purple Bricks it's one in each eye for him and his bedraggled little Troll group.