Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[andyj] 06/3/2018 13:41

Before you get carried away, do be aware that only premium members can vote thumbs down.

[ltcm1] 06/3/2018 10:54

Ok polling is now closed.

The results were 10 Stay v 2 Leave - the stays have it, the stays have it.

Thanks to all who voted. It is good in my opinion at least to see democracy prevailing over the 'silent majority', a term first coined by Richard Nixon IIRC. I'm sure kop115 will correct me if I'm wrong.

Now I have a question about Mr Woodford's funds. How much is he currently running over the four funds??? I saw in April 2017 Morning Star gave a figure of 17BN.

Does anyone have the current figure please?

[stewart64] 06/3/2018 10:00

With regard to Woodford's two Equity income funds I find the divergence in performance slightly odd over the last year since the make up is very similar. His Equity income is down 11.5% over the year, the Income focus (with a slightly less favourable start date of 20th March) down just 3.5%. Shows how luck can play a part in performance with just the odd tweak here and there.

[cynicalbear2016] 05/3/2018 16:36

Don’t worry though - NAV will hit target of 146 by April 2019 no problem.

[cynicalbear2016] 05/3/2018 16:35

Very hard for the NAV to move when less than 20% of portfolio is in liquid quoted stocks!

[andyj] 05/3/2018 15:38

The NAV and price remarkably stable given the volatility.

[minerve] 05/3/2018 10:00

I would probably consider neither anymore. The risk of a Labour government is high and the pressures that caused the issues at Capita remain the same in the industry. Nothing has really changed other than we have visibility of a result.

[essentialinvestor] 05/3/2018 09:50

Top, I would consider Serco before CPI - just my take.
However neither are for widows and orphans imv.

[hpcg] 04/3/2018 23:35

daffy - don't forget that funds such as Woodford's selling is part of the process for shares to find a bottom. This is the big disadvantage big money has, it fights liquidity on the way up and the way down. PIs can take advantage by riding the coat tails in both directions. This again is a problem WPCT faces, and the only cure is backing a sufficient number of successful companies.

[topvest] 04/3/2018 19:30

OK, fair enough.

I was trying to look at Capita again today after Alasdair Mundy (who I rate at Temple Bar) has bought in. Call me excessively prudent if you like, but for me its uninvestable because its balance sheet is so weak (i.e. net tangible assets are -£1/share if you ignore goodwill). That's where some of these so called value investors are getting it wrong in my view. It may look terrific value on Neil's spreadsheet but its still got a negative balance sheet and therefore one step away from being in the hands of its banks.

[daffyjones] 04/3/2018 15:54

@topvest "Can someone name an unsuccessful investment that Woodford admitted he got it wrong and actually sold rather than being anchored to his original investment thesis?"

Rolls Royce comes to mind.

He was a long term holder, owning 2.3% of the company, but the share price fell from a high of £12.71 in January 2014 to just £5.13 in December 2015.

Over those two years Woodford posted a number of his usual bullish statements claiming the market was wrong and he was right - e.g. in October 2014 when the price was still over £9 he stated "the market has clearly focused on the short-term disappointment of last week’s statement, we believe that in so doing, it is ignoring some meaningful long-term positives. The shares are now more attractively valued than they have been in some time".

He eventually sold his entire stake in Rolls Royce right at the bottom, in December 2015, when the share price was just over £5, citing "material downgrades to profit and cash expectations, and to such an extent that it is now likely that the dividend will be cut in 2016. This has shaken my confidence in the investment case and so the position has been sold across all mandates."

RR shares are now trading at £8.17, 60% higher than when Woodford sold up. He managed to time it so he sold at the very bottom.

[minerve] 04/3/2018 09:53

IQ151

"You'll be over the moon, no doubt, that the blustering Minerve loves you. However I wouldn't rely on his affection. He does have a nasty habit of switching sides very quickly. "

If I believe, through more due-diligence, careful thought and consideration that I have made a mistake I will quickly reverse my decision and exit. Perhaps Woodford should do this a little more often?

My track record over the last 18 months is better than Woodford's by a country mile.

I have great respect for Woodford but that doesn't mean that if he hasn't performed I will not pretend it hasn't happened.

[pugugly] 04/3/2018 09:38

Looks as though Frontier IP could teach WPCT an thing or two about investing in start-ups and new technologies (OK a minnow but softly softly catchee monkey) - Up over 300% and tipped again in MOS today

[iq151] 04/3/2018 09:33

So it's goodbye then ltcm1. LOL

andyj got the feeling of the thread right, didn't he? I personally shall not be sorry IF you stick to your word and abandon your disingenuous meandering trollery.

You'll be over the moon, no doubt, that the blustering Minerve loves you. However I wouldn't rely on his affection. He does have a nasty habit of switching sides very quickly. LOL

[jonwig] 04/3/2018 07:38

@ andyj - there's nothing I can do about poor quality posts, as I'm not a paying client. However, I simply filter and totally ignore posters who don't contribute constructively, and they can be on either side of the argument.

The FT has produced a number of articles about him and his funds (which I've linked to when I found them) and, if it helps, many comments on those are also of poor quality.

Personally, I started this thread long before the IPO as I was minded to subscribe. My broker correctly advided me to wait until it 'settled down'. Which it did, literally! In principle I could be a buyer under the right conditions, but are his early-stage holdings proof against trade wars and generally fragile markets? 'Tin hat time' as the FT says.

[andyj] 04/3/2018 03:56

Always a lively board although it has increasingly degenerated in recent weeks into a place to mock Mr Woodford and those who invest in his funds. Having crossed the the line here from being bearish to bullish and buying in at 74.80 as declared in an earlier post I seem to have incurred mockery from My Retirement Fund. Surely posters on here are either buyers of the fund, short of the fund or interested in either. Everyone else is an indefensible troll. I am beginning to wonder if some of the mockers are schadenfreude inspired disgruntled previous investors, or those who wish they bought or shorted, but did not. Bears are welcome, trolls please leave the room.

[topvest] 03/3/2018 19:10

Reading Woodford's most recent updates on his top investments you have to give him some credit for talking about his investments. Standing back though the problem is that he held shares in Provident Financial, AA, Capita etc. before they decimated shareholder value.
The clever investors are entering these companies now not before.
Can someone name an unsuccessful investment that Woodford admitted he got it wrong and actually sold rather than being anchored to his original investment thesis?

[hpcg] 03/3/2018 17:14

Does anyone ever look at the votes? Who cares, seriously? As a reminder nothing at all that happens on this message board alters the success of the portfolio companies or the NAV.

[chinahere] 03/3/2018 16:50

No, if some Blues do vote you down ltcm1 - you shouldn't leave.

It's just getting interesting here and it would be a shame to miss it!

[minerve] 03/3/2018 16:42

Don't quit the thread itcm1!

Freedom of speech.

Snowflakes and older snowflakes will just have to swallow opposite opinions.

[ltcm1] 03/3/2018 16:40

Look if more than 10 people vote this post down I will quit the thread.

[ltcm1] 03/3/2018 16:37

Air Marshall the mistake you are making is WPCT and the Equity Income funds are not level stakes. The EI is 10 times the size of WPCT. The 12.68% figure you quote adds up to nearly 1BN in cash.

Look it has been said by numerous people that if the EI were to unravel forced selling will have a significant impact on WPCT values.

Neil Woodford has been very honest and open about the holding of large stakes in companies. However there is risk to WPCT because the EI fund is open ended.

[cynicalbear2016] 03/3/2018 15:51

China - WIM has made a few quid in fees, that would be a good start.

[chinahere] 03/3/2018 15:26

If it does all collapse, where will the funds come from to make recompense?