Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[my retirement fund] 21/2/2018 16:53

Contrast that with someone at the other end of the scale who is an expert stock picker such as Warren Buffet. You couldn't meet a more mild mannered gentle and modest man if you tried. He even gives his own profits to charity!

[my retirement fund] 21/2/2018 16:49

The thing is with Woodford that other than his lack of stock picking skills is that he seems incredibly arrogant.

[rackers1] 21/2/2018 16:44

Sell it while it starts with a 7

[netnut] 21/2/2018 16:35

How long does a shorting 'attack' last such as the one going on with Prothena? There must be costs involved the the hedge fund shorting it?

Can it go on indefinitely?

[my retirement fund] 21/2/2018 16:29

Its certainly one for the toilet

[jl9] 21/2/2018 16:06

When the penny finally drops for contrarians, bottom pickers, long-termers etc this is gonna tank. And I mean big time.

[elmfield] 21/2/2018 14:11

Many other better run funds out there, imv.

[ltcm1] 21/2/2018 14:07

What kpo115 is seemingly unwilling to admit is that increasingly WPCT is a big bet on Prothena, Oxford Nanoprone, Purplebricks, Benevolent AI, and Immunocore A.

On the quoted side, Purplebricks has nothing on its balance sheet and Prothena is hope value, Irish mist if you like. If these two fail to deliver the sackfulls of banknotes investors are expecting the ratio of unquoted will climb ever higher.

If you take a negative view on these two heavily Woodford supported outfits then you need to lop 25% off the share price in my view, being 18% for these companies and another 7% to bring the NAV discount into a more reasonable figure. This gives a fair value price for the fund as 56.25.

You know what? Since jonwig has been hinting that some of the unquoteds may be a little flattering when it comes to value, let's introduce the Woodford margin of safety and call it 50.

[jonwig] 21/2/2018 12:58

hpcg - I wouldn't buy SYNC on the basis you say. But ... looking at it, they appear to have co-founded many of their investments with Wellcome Trust and other expertise, hold strategic or majority stakes and have board presence. It's very concentrated - so the exact opposite of W. It may be also that their valuation metrics are very prudent (there's a lot of room for judgment in this).

So shorting it means you think you can outrun the tiger. (If the tiger is W, that might be a different matter!)

[wantage] 21/2/2018 12:55

hpcg - thanks for that.I'll definitely have a look.Regarding stock lending, some of the most obvious shorts
like UKOG couldn't be borrowed, so I guess Woody is providing a useful service loaning out his own stock and those he owns.

[hpcg] 21/2/2018 10:20

bookbroker - If one is a long term large investor in large cap companies it is irrational not to lend at least some stock. Not only does it provide extra income, but also an exit mechanism should one want to. This isn't Woodford's problem at all. His problem is his stock picks in the first place. He is picking good dividend payers on low valuations by profit. He does not apparently look at debt and EV related metrics, return metrics, operational metrics, or cash related metrics. It is beyond naive in this day and age.

p1nk - I don't think IFAs are likely to promote this trust, more use the Woodford name for certain types of retail client. It isn't just IFAs, Hargreaves Lansdown are very big on the named fund manager concept; see this promotional piece on their from page: Woodford funds are still in their Wealth 150+ list despite 4th quartile performance.

jonwig - Syncona looks like it could (stress on the could) be a massive short, based on the disconnect between the NAV and the share price. Dividend adjusted NAV direction and relative discount are the only two metrics to sensibly judge a trust. One way of using trusts is to buy when NAV is consistently increasing as that suggests the investment style is now in vogue and money flow is your friend. Lucky Mouse has some excellent work on his IT trust board (ticker IT). On that count the investor in SYNC are way less rational than WPCT investors. The NAV started falling in October, yet the share price carried on up. Unless there is hidden success not counted for in the NAV, for example an exciting phase II trial result in a portfolio company, it looks absolutely mad.

[kpo115] 21/2/2018 10:07

After a long blissful silence,the small unsuccessful trolls are really working up into a hysterical lather this morning. Although, to be honest, they haven't landed a single blow on WPCT: too much pontificating without any substance, as ever.

OK, we know you bought and possibly sold at the wrong time, but amateur investors nearly always do. Just get over it and leave the rest of us in peace.

[bookbroker] 21/2/2018 09:24

If Woodford loans out his stock to see it trashed, why does he bother buying in to start with, because that is known as robbing Peter to pay Paul, and in this case there is no coming back, a rights issue will prevent insolvency here and heavy dilution from here. But this has now lost too much value that even a rights issue is out of the question, basically it is screwed! If he is buying for the dividend, then while he is reaping the rewards it may be great, and hopefully if he holds long enough he can claim that the dividends alone will have matched the value gained against the loss in share price, but ultimately he will be left holding the carcass of the company when it has little value left!

[jonwig] 21/2/2018 09:12

Incidentally, for anyone liking the idea of WPCT if not the execution, an interesting alternative is Syncona Ltd [SYNC]:

Syncona is a leading FTSE250 company focused on investing in and building global leaders in life science. Our vision is to deliver transformational treatments to patients in truly innovative areas of healthcare while generating attractive returns for shareholders.

We are aligned with two of the premium charitable funders in life science, the Wellcome Trust, original founder of Syncona’s life science division, and Cancer Research UK both of which are significant shareholders in Syncona.

I don't hold - Telegraph mentioned it a few days ago. (Trading at a premium though.)

[pugugly] 21/2/2018 09:05

MRF:> A bit of a non sequitur(imo) only an idiot would buy a falling knife unless they had stong evidence that it was only a temporary fall and the underlying business was say 95% certain to recovery - Could it be that Woodford has lost his marbles ? or are his in-house analists just too far removed from current business practice and the working coal face (ok that is an obsolete term !!) that the are feedng him "False News" ?

[topvest] 21/2/2018 09:02

I looked at buying AA, but didn't for two reasons. Marginal revenue growth and debt far too high. It was the latter point that really put me off. Woodford is the value trap king at the moment!

[daffyjones] 21/2/2018 08:43

It's just crazy. I've never known any fund manager to be so obstinate that they will double down on losing positions time after time.

Woodford was already criticised in August for holding AA (made up 1.3% of WIF and 0.9% of WEIF just before they crashed 18% to 210p following a profits warning. I didn't know he'd actually added to the position in September. His arrogance knows no bounds. He just assumed he is right and the market is wrong. Now the shares are at just 81p.

[harveydee] 21/2/2018 08:40

It's just unreal how the curse of Neil Woodford keeps striking ! To keep adding to your losers just before they crash takes a special kind of talent.

[jonwig] 21/2/2018 08:34

Woodford Funds increased their holding of AA. to 14.2% (86,698,420 shares) on 27 Sept last, paying about 160p. The share price then fell to about 116p before this morning's trading update, and it's currently 80p.

[p1nkfish] 20/2/2018 22:22

I would certainly hope no IFA would go about touting WPCT.
Where's your proof?

[wantage] 20/2/2018 19:33

I think Woodford is supported by loads of IFAs, who haven't a clue, and whose response
to any share price fall, is to trot out homilies about long term investing,coming good in the end,and are happy to rely on a reputation that's long seen better days.
They want an easy life, and easy means travelling with the crowd, and if it ends in tears,no one to take the blame.

[my retirement fund] 19/2/2018 18:30

Personally I think this fund and a large proportion of Woodfords other funds are full of folk like Air Marshall which probably explains how Woodford gets away with it.