Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 26/2/2018 10:25

jonwig - of course - but looking at the IMB chart that's down 30% as well since May. Not sure where Woodford entered but even with the dividend he can't possibly be in profit.

[ltcm1] 26/2/2018 10:05

PFG should merge with the AA. Then when customers breakdown they can stick them for a high interest loan right on the roadside.

[my retirement fund] 26/2/2018 09:30

Strange weightings indeed. Woodford looks like he is on course to own PFG haha

[jonwig] 26/2/2018 08:44

CC - I guess you can 'accidentally' end up with strange weightings if some of your holdings suffer big falls.

[cc2014] 26/2/2018 08:40

I actually feel sorry for Neil Woodford. Not sure why as I'm not impressed with his stock picks but even a bad trader would struggle to pick as many duffers as him.

I went through all his fundholdings on Friday to establish what he'd got in case he becomes a forced seller through withdrawals from the income funds on the basis there may be some bargains.

Having reviewed it, it's the weightings I cannot understand more than anything. Why he has 6% in Imperial Brands is beyond me. Another business with a decent dividend but where's it's future. Cash cow for sure but that's no good if the share price keeps falling. 6% in anything seems too high to me (not that I follow that rule of course. rofl)

[my retirement fund] 26/2/2018 08:35

Woodford dont care its only other peoples money.

[cc2014] 26/2/2018 08:12

hmm. PFG now starts with a 5. Down 12%

[solarno lopez] 26/2/2018 06:44

Good post Tim 3 and yes I think you are right about the buzz of trading but also the market changed and brought in rules and regulations that JL's style could not work with.

Well that's my theory

[ltcm1] 24/2/2018 15:09

There is a nice 15 minute piece on him on YT, part of a short series on the great US traders.

Tell you what - things will get lively for Woody if May gets unseated and we enter a period of political paralysis.

Is Woodford's 'it'll all be fine' Brexit call going to be his biggest contrarian signal to date?

I can't imagine there are many other funds so closely aligned with the UK consumer as his income fund.

[tim 3] 24/2/2018 10:18

I think you are right although he was a notorious womaniser himself !

[rackers1] 24/2/2018 07:58

Most husbands do anyway

[tim 3] 24/2/2018 05:33

Puggugly

On Eve I agree.

The internet mattress market is becoming incredibly competitive and not only Simba but Leesa who are big in the states are providing strong competition.

The fact Simba are in John Lewis give them a big advantage too.

[tim 3] 24/2/2018 05:24

EI,Salarno.

Am a huge Livermore fan too read both books many times such a fascinating character in so many ways.

He was said to of made $100m or $1.4bn in todays money during the crash and then lost it all!

My take on him was he knew how to trade well but the reason he could not stick to his own rules was because he could not live without the buzz of trading (addiction basically)so when markets were flat went after positions he knew deep down were not there.

Although many of his techniques would be illegal or not work today his principles still hold true and I often consider them today. Maybe if NW had used them on stocks like CPI where the price was screaming a message to him it might have helped!

Apologies for being off thread.

[pugugly] 23/2/2018 18:13

I would forget about Eve - these boys are likely to knock them sideways - going great guns in Europe as well as UK and expanding fast. As unlisted below most investor community radars but supported by one of, or perhaps the most successful super angel group in Europe -

[ltcm1] 23/2/2018 17:54

Thanks cynicalbear. That does explain why IP looks so odd in the income fund. I took a look at Benevolent AI today and it does seem like the emperor's new clothes as regards the valuation.

GL Andy I would like to invest myself but how do you value a portfolio like WPCT? There could be a gamechanger in there, NW has done very well with Purp too. I guess you have to fancy the top five horses to play. RM2 was down 16% this morning though!

I know this is hindsight bias at work but why did Neil pass on Just Eat and Boohoo??? He doesn't seem very down with the kids to me, where are the unquote e-sports companies in the portfolio???

[careful] 23/2/2018 15:44

N.W. must have lost it.
Why invest more in the AA with £2.6bn net debt and a turnover below £1bn.
Negative net worth, a terrible balance sheet.
Seems crazy.

As Warren Buffett said, It takes a lifetime to build a reputation and 1 month to lose it.
N.W. was a sensible solid investor who invested in sound companies with strong balance sheets and assets, just like Buffett.
These days he invests in all sorts of rubbish. He should go back to basics.

[minerve] 23/2/2018 15:39

Well, it seems to me that Woodford and his mob are actually in the process of reducing transparency with their recent ending of monthly updates. Seems to me they ran out of avenues to explain their investment thesis which is becoming increasingly difficult to follow or understand IMO.

The heat and questioning on their websites was obviously too much to bear or should that be too much to bare? Perhaps both!

Anyway, doesn't reflect well. It is like someone putting down the phone in customer service centres when they don't like the tone or questioning of a customer.

I once was a Woodford investor in all 3 funds and now in none. These actions only enforce the belief that I was right to exit.

[toffeeman] 23/2/2018 15:34

I think that's brave Andy, - I can't see value at this price - I think the NAV is overstated and the discount is too narrow!

[andyj] 23/2/2018 15:18

Well, despite the negativity here, I decided to buy back in today. I spent the day researching the fund, reading through the updates and I like the transparency and the potential. I feel there is honesty in their relationship with shareholders and it is interesting that they feel the unquoted companies have exceeded expectations. Heavily discounted from the opening price, healthily discounted from NAV, I feel eventually there is more upside than downside. It is an opening tranche, which I may add to, but one I am preparing to take a risk with and be patient.

[cynicalbear2016] 23/2/2018 15:07

itcm1 - when Woodford has to get rid of a whole load of unquoted stock in second half of 2017, he swapped it with “similar”; quoted stock which is why EIF ended up with all of WPCT’s IP Group holding abs well as Eve Sleep and loads of others.

And no that doesn’t mean that WPCTs holdings are better as it got the bum end of that deal. For a start it ended up with £50m worth of Benevolent AI at a valuation of over £1bn which is absolute nonsense. Read my stuff on share price more detail.

[jonwig] 23/2/2018 14:33

Some video interviews with NW, which I think are recent.



You have to delete the * as our hosts don't appreciate links to 'competitors'.

[essentialinvestor] 23/2/2018 11:00

Hi Tim, thanks. Read that book some years ago,
it was nicely detailed up to around 1930.

I know it's been speculated that commodities, perhaps cotton,
played a part in his post '29 decline. An extraordinary man,
and his story remains as gripping after all this time.


solarno, will have to defer to your JL knowledge in that case!.

[solarno lopez] 23/2/2018 10:48

No problem Tim I have been a follower of Livermore for many years and often read the book of his life

I visited the Sherry Netherland last year !