Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[andyj] 29/11/2017 13:41

It doesn't help that, like today, the NAV keeps slipping down.

[mazarin] 28/11/2017 11:01

Thanks Andy, You could well be right. My thoughts are that unlike conventional stock where it's possible to do tangible research and get independent info. And where basic fundamentals can be assessed and performance monitored. WPCT comprises of 60 or so Companies, many of them unquoted who don't have such stringent requirement to publish results, so we're very reliant on Woodford's Investment team to make the judgement. With the risk spread across 60 or so divergent Companies its unlikely that their fortunes will mirror each other. So returning to my original question, what drives the sp? It could well be nothing more than Market Sentiment, as I suspected when earlier in July the Sp suddenly picked up. I asked the same question then. You're assessment likewise is probably correct. If the Market thinks there's value, they'll buy it.

[andyj] 28/11/2017 10:04

Mazarin, my thoughts are that the shorting attack on the largest holding Prothena, spooked investors to sell out, but the discount then widened to 10% and it became a great entry or topping up point.

[mazarin] 27/11/2017 15:46

It doesn't make any sense how two weeks ago it was holding at 96p, then dropped like a stone to 85p, now zooms back up. Long may it continue......! Although not keeping my fingers crossed.

[ttg100] 27/11/2017 15:36

* cherry picking
* bottom fishing
* placing them in the list of 'cheap' investment trusts compiled by Numis Securities.
* ??????????????

[mazarin] 27/11/2017 14:40

Now up even further up 2.52p and rising. I'm not complaining, just trying to understand the reasons for it. Today's Nav appears unchanged

[ttg100] 26/11/2017 13:32

"Neil Woodford's struggling Woodford Patient Capital (WPCT) investment trust has started to look 'cheap' again, as a short-selling attack on its largest holding takes its toll on the share price.

Shares in Woodford's trust have fallen nearly 13% since hedge fund Kerrisdale Capital revealed it was shorting, or betting against, Prothena (PRTA.O), the US biotech company that accounted for 15.6% of the fund at the end of last month.



Prothena shares have lost a quarter of their value over that period, as news of Kerrisdale's campaign was followed by a delay to a trial of its flagship drug.

While that has acted as a drag on Patient Capital's net asset value, which has fallen from 98.7p to 93p, the shares' fall has been more pronounced, as souring sentiment on the trust has widened the discount.

Having traded at close to par before Kerrisdale launched its attack, the discount was approaching double figures at yesterday's close, at 9.6%.

That's more than double the average discount of 4.4% over the last 12 months, giving the shares a Z-score of -2.1 and placing them in the list of 'cheap' investment trusts compiled by Numis Securities.

Just to recap, a Z-score is a measure used by analysts to put a premium or discount on an investment trust into the context of its previous 12 months. Roughly speaking, an investment company or trust with a Z-score of -2 or below is ‘cheap’, while a score of 2 or more is viewed as expensive."

From Investment Trust Insider - fio etc

[p1nkfish] 24/11/2017 21:01

Mi nerve, Totally agree.

Purple- could be a capital light compounder.
He has AI in there.
All sorts.

Current price is not the least bit a surprise but neither will it be when 2-3x this price.

[andyj] 24/11/2017 11:43

At the time of posting the discount to NAV is 10%.

[rackers1] 24/11/2017 11:20

anyone still invested in NW needs help.

[riskvsreward] 24/11/2017 10:50

Some is defending the indefensible poor performance. Saying that wpct is investing in high risk stuff and therefore its big loss is justified doesn't square with how a reputed fund manager would invest 10 to 20% of the portfolio in a high risky business, and in one go as well. Surely such large investment can only be put into business that one will have almost certainty to be right, and perhaps build a stake overtime if one's conviction is proved right. The linked article said that on Northwest bio alone wpct has lost almost £100 m.

hxxp://citywire.co.uk/money/hedge-fund-attacks-woodford-patients-top-holding/a1067331?ref=citywire-money-latest-news-list

[dr biotech] 24/11/2017 10:10

The other problem is that he aimed for 10% growth pa. That doesn't match with being patient.

There is some good stuff in the holdings, but I never felt comfortable with the largest Prothena. I've lost enough on dodgy bios to last me a lifetime and I am not not convinced that NW knows what he is doing in that sphere (NWBIO being a great example). I'm not convinced by PURP either - though saying that they have been an excellent investment for Woodford.

My trailing stop loss was triggered a while ago - at the moment I just consider myself an interested observer.

[jonwig] 24/11/2017 10:01

Minerve - you make some valid points. But (there's always a 'but'):

• it's clearly not just posters on this board who read the fund wrongly - compare the early share price performance with the most recent (prem to disc);

• by January 2016 (only 9 months from float) he wanted to raise more capital. In March he gave market uncertainty as the reason for not doing so. It's actually a lot more likely that the consultation with large shareholders doused him in cold water. That looks like hubris to me;

• why so? - because by June 2016 the fund had 8% financial gearing and by June 2017, 17%. Couldn't raise equity, so took on debt. Market uncertainty be damned.

• Finally, the written documentation is full of warnings and caveats, so legally he's done the right thing. However, in the fund's early days he courted an enormous amount of publicity in the financial press in which these warnings were glossed over. He sat on his reputation.

[minerve] 24/11/2017 09:06

stewart64

Most on this thread are not experienced in investing in the types of stocks WPCT invests in. This is high risk stuff. Even good companies require repeat capital injections to hold their ships whilst they seek profitability. Many will fail and the average number of years before they are commercially viable is high.

I founded a company on OFEX in the 90s. I have experience from the company side. There is nothing here of no surprise and Woodford should not take the blame for most of what is happening here. If he is to take the blame it might be with respect to the fact that he didn't communicate the nature of the beast to investors the best he could. However, I think he should be congratulated for providing an opportunity like this to people like ourselves and it is really a lesson for some.

Rather than blaming others I think they need to look in the mirror and be humble enough to accept that it is perhaps their lack of experience that has led to their dissapointment rather than Woodford matching their unrealistic and inexperienced expectations.

[mad foetus] 24/11/2017 08:58

This does all raise an interesting point about how good investors are at judging their areas of expertise. This year I have made a few fantastic calls in the technology area. However, there has been a good tailwind and it may well have been more luck than judgment. I could point to them as being the cause of my outperformance and say next year that is all I will invest in and my performance will be turbo charged. Well, it might be, or trends might revert to the mean, the tailwinds become headwinds, good luck turns average and I end up looking a fool.I'm not sure something similar hasn't happened here. There haven't been great tailwinds for pharma and biotech recently, and some of the non-pharma investments (RM2 and PURP among them) seem a bit strange. It may be that Woodford is simply a good income investor who had a bit of luck in some niche areas in the past but whose isn't actually an expert in those areas.

[stewart64] 24/11/2017 08:49

Andyj...I too am getting tempted on that nav discount. Have to say I don't get Woodford's share picks. Seems to be 90% pharmas trying to develop something on a wing and a prayer and purple bricks thrown in for good measure. What's patient about Purple bricks...more of a smash and grab raid before the internet estate agent market gets crowded.

Ok I'm being facetious..surely others on this forum must have concerns?

[andyj] 22/11/2017 15:44

9% discount to NAV now, decided to buy back in.

[jonwig] 22/11/2017 14:53

NW has given a rebuttal of the bear position on Prothena:



It would require an industry professional to evaluate the situation here for investors, and even here there would be dissent.

I'm in no position to do anything about the very poor quality of many posts here recently, as I don't pay the fee to ban users. All I can suggest to serious folk is the filter button. (So I see hardly any of them myself.)

[rackers1] 22/11/2017 11:12

Rayrac21 Nov '17 - 23:24 - 3693 of 3706 1 0
rackers1, you got him in one!


seems im in good company on my views on this oxygen thief

[rackers1] 22/11/2017 09:27

oh dear - ignore this loser folks. hes still bitter from his losses in IQE and NLG and PURP

sad chap.

[andyj] 22/11/2017 00:13

I am interested in buying back in. However, at the moment this seems to be a falling knife. I am surprised the discount is narrowing. The way the NAV is sliding I want a 10% discount before buying.