Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 04/10/2019 09:05

CC2014 - at 31/08 he held less than 1% cash/near cash (see Trustnet link in header). I don't know the 30/09 position yet. He's allowed to go to 100% in principle.

[cc2014] 04/10/2019 08:55

SpectoAcc - can I ask where the evidence is he's put all his cash in WEIF into liquid FTSE100's. How do we know he's not hoarding cash?

PS - I know from his video FTSE100 and a bit of FTSE250 is what he said he was going to reposition the fund to, but how do we know he's actually doing this as opposed to hoarding cash (or 3 month bonds) which would seem the sensible thing to do given the redemptions coming up in December.

Unless of course as has been suggested on here it's not going to open in December at all!

[daffyjones] 03/10/2019 21:57

Announcement today that Woodford has sold the rest of his stake in Malin, after dumping a big chunk last month.

Remember that Woody had desperately tried to do a deal with Malin in June, asking Malin to buy up some of the unquoteds from Woodford in return for Woodford buying new Malin shares. They told him to GTFO. Woodford until recently owned 24% of Malin as well as big chunks of Malin companies such as Viamet, Kymab and Immunocore.
Malin shares are down over 70% from their 2016 peak.

Woody also further reduces his stakes in PurpleBricks (down 78% from peak) and Paypoint - the latter hasn't done too badly in comparison and as a FTSE 250 company you'd think Woody would stay in

[spectoacc] 03/10/2019 15:48

@CC2014 - Woody's put c.£1bn into "liquid FTSE100's", including banks (lol) and IMB (lol).

But as you say - not nearly enough. My prediction is that WEIF doesn't ungate in Dec, and that when it does ungate, all but £500m will get withdrawn. Just think what rubbish that last £500m would be in...

[jonwig] 03/10/2019 14:33

@ CC2014 - yes, Leadsom visited it, hence BoJo's mention in his conference speech.

"Controlled fusion is 20 years away ... and always will be." not my own view, just quoting!

[williamcooper104] 03/10/2019 13:41

Construction sector now in recession Any Brexit shock is going to be brutal

[cc2014] 03/10/2019 11:28

WEIF fund value is £3.1b

HL hold £1.6b of this. Some will be through HL fund of funds. Some will be HL customers making their own decisions.

So, let's say HL before the fund re-opens indicate they are giving notice on the fund of funds stuff and their other WEIF recommendations. Let's call that £1b. Some HL customers will also give notice. Let's call that £0.2b. Then we have Kent CC, their stake was worth £250m a few months ago, so probably £210m now.

Add all that up and you get £1.4b redemptions that we can reasonably assess.

Then look at the other £1.3b which isn't invested through HL or Kent CC. Family firms, PI's etc. how much will the redemptions be out of that. Well not less than £0.3b imho - could be alot more.

That's a grand total of redemptions of £1.7b as a guess, leaving the fund at £1.4b.

And that's before his further losses as the market has tanked this week and his Brexit/IMB have done worse than the average.

To re-open it's going to need minimum £1.7b of cash. Maybe £2b. er maybe more. At the end of August it was 0.79% cash = £25m. Er yes £25m,so that's £1,675m to go.


Woodford's only hope is that Brexit is done at the end of October with a deal and all his financials and builders rise 25% as a result and he can sell into a bullish market. Much as I would like this to happen as I am overweight financials and constrution too I don't believe that a likely outcome in that timeframe.

So, it can't re-open in December unless Woodford gets a wiggle on selling anything and everything.

Having said that the Board will know this, the FCA will know this and Link will know this. Unless of course he's busy selling stuff in the month of September. And at scale I mean. Some of the RNS do show he's selling some stuff, PURP, AA., NSF,IP. I'm sure there are more below the notifyable threshold.

It's a mess and tbh the fund is best put into run-down. Woodford won't do that.

[porsche1945] 03/10/2019 10:40

@jonwig. Hysterical, I hadnt seen that in the DT, try to avoid that brexit rag if poss but questor and his tips almost as toxic as Woodentop, all those tipsters should be locked up generally anyway but questor is a “ special “ case.

Im assuming we have not heard more from the FCA and throwing someone under a bus for all this Woody/Hargreaves because they are trying to avoid a run when weif opens or contagion so they are watching their timing.

[liquidkid] 03/10/2019 10:26

Part 2/... (Part 1: 10404)

British Patient Capital Holdings & The Not a Bank, Bank -BBB.

Down in the rabbithole searching for unicorns is not the wonderland imagined its really like a sewer. Out of the cesspit Revolunicorn appeared...

Britain's Sovereign Venture Capital fund, BBB 20.5% ownership means UK challenger bank: Revolut is Government-backed (taxpayer funded).
Joins a list of Russian Oligarchs & Barings Bank of Nick Leeson fame (even kept the coat of arms.)

British Patient Capital (BPC) FinTech (not a bank) Investment Portfolio:

Balderton Capital (UK) LLP
portfolio: Revolut; ABC Preferred $250mn, Nutmeg, ZOPA, Betfair, crowdcube, GoCardless, PayWithMyBank, Prodigy Finance

Draper Esprit
portfolio:
Revolut; ABD preferred $9.9mn, Seedrs, Transferwise, Trustpilot, currencyfair, crowdcube, crosslend

Seedcamp Investment Mangement LLP
portfolio: Revolut; $16.1mn

Indirect Investments:
Crowdcube Nominees Portfolio: Revolut, B preferred $21mn
Seedrs Limited UK, Revolut, C preferred $18mn

Total NAV invested Revolut $315mn
Current Revolut Valuation $1.53bn

Of course Woodfeld is a player in this, amongst other things, Seedrs is in the portfolio.

[liquidkid] 03/10/2019 10:13

Woodfeld clearly has to be forcibly removed, shut completely out & the FCA/SFO start a joint investigation.
A rename would be in order for the hodlings as the Trust element has long since gone. As its owned by British retail shareholders, an appropriate name is:
British Patient Capital Holdings
Oh wait...
That name has been already taken by the Government.

[buywell3] 03/10/2019 08:39

40p magnet getting stronger

USA Growth now slowing fast

Recession in USA looking IMO ever more likely

Safe sector stocks the place to be for 2020

How many has woody got ?

Should have never sold AZN methinks

[spectoacc] 03/10/2019 07:56

30p! They won't be professional for long. There seriously isn't 30p of value in WPCT IMO.

[jonwig] 03/10/2019 07:48

RCT - but surely joy for each sinner who repents? (Not quite Luke 15:10.)

[rcturner2] 03/10/2019 07:32

You have to love tipsters.

Buy high, sell low.

[jonwig] 03/10/2019 07:29

Questor:

The time has come: we are pulling the plug on Woodford Patient Capital.

Why have we run out of, well, patience? It’s quite a list but the first reason is simply that we think the shares have further to fall.
..................
... we have simply lost faith in Neil Woodford. His sale of about £1m of his own shares in the trust in July didn’t help, but this column now sees the evidence as overwhelming that his attempt to build a successful stock-picking business centred on his own abilities has failed.

Whether this is because he overreached himself by running three funds without recruiting sufficient backup, or because, given that he founded the business, those around him felt unable to offer constructive challenge to his opinions, we don’t know.
.................
Some professional investors have told Questor that they may be tempted to try their luck with Patient Capital if the shares fall as low as 30p but that course of action is only for the bravest. For now, cut your losses.

[spectoacc] 03/10/2019 06:56

OSI was a good buy of Woody's I believe? What a pity he had to sell out of WEIF, and took the same opportunity to slot his entire OSI holding in WPCT, which had been far larger, in order to meet obligations to the likes of the mighty Rutherford...

[jonwig] 03/10/2019 06:28

Thanks chucko - yes, looks impressive. And incorporated in 2011 so there were plenty of funding opportunities. Not a mates deal for him, maybe.

A decent list of shareholders, too, including Oxford Uni, Oxford Sciences Innovation, Private equity, etc.

[chucko1] 02/10/2019 21:54

Check out First Light, based in Oxford. They are working with Culham and I saw a presentation on their work a couple of weeks back. Remarkable.

On NW’s doorstep, and he missed it.

[jonwig] 02/10/2019 20:38

The Culham Fusion Centre in Oxford was featured in BoJo's speech today:



It's about seven miles from WIM's offices. I wonder if Woody paid them a visit at any time?

[jonwig] 02/10/2019 17:09

Yup - he's been buying RBS and LLOY I believe.

Major global financial upset on the cards (Brexit an irrelevance in the bigger picture), so buy banks! Strewth.

[spectoacc] 02/10/2019 16:44

I fear we may have ventured off-topic.. :)

Imagine being a WEIF holder, desperate to recover money the past few months and predicting a market fall. You've watched Woody dump good stocks at way under market, bad stocks even further under, and still be stuck in the unicorns. You've watched EVE almost disappear, RM2 dilute, a few more go bust, Eddie Stobart suspend - and Woody punt on FTSE100's including IMB which then profit-warned.

All the while still drawing his fee from your gated cash.

Now you can watch the market tank and do precisely nothing about it (if you were clued up enough to short, you wouldn't have still been in WEIF in the first place).

[spectoacc] 02/10/2019 16:14

@RCT2 - bad bank and worse bank more like. Should have been done in 2008.

[buywell3] 02/10/2019 15:56

DOW tanking

CRASH in prospect

Don't forget to bring clean knickers tomorrow