Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[buywell3] 02/10/2019 15:43

I have not liked the look of the USA markets for over 10 months

The word is either toppy or overbought

[rcturner2] 02/10/2019 15:40

I have also heard that DB is in trouble.

My source (Soc Gen London) said that the rumour is that it is to be nationalised and split into a good bank and bad bank.

[cc2014] 02/10/2019 12:23

One wonders if Wooford managed to sell any of his RENE yesterday because now it looks pants again as do his Brexit focussed stocks.

Highest buy on RENE today 297.5, now you can buy for 215 and it's not slowing down in it's fall. I suspect back to 200 and that better hold else the chart looks somewhat challenged.

[tartshagger] 02/10/2019 11:23

October is crash season and I don't like the look of the markets. The Fed has been forced into pumping money ($75B + daily) into the overnight bank lending system ("repo") which is what happened in 2007, there are rumours circulating across the pond that a major bank is in trouble.

Other banks are unable to properly value the dodgy banks' derivative, CLO, sub-prime car loans, packaged student debt etc exposure and so refuse to lend to them overnight.

One of my spies at Standard Life is speculating that it's Deutche Bank..... Another working at BoA is saying its Citi. We all know that Metro Bank over here is in trouble and today there is an announcement that the Chairman Vernon Hill has resigned..

IMHO the risks of a serious market crash now far outweigh the prospect of any financial gain and so i think its time to take profits and sell. As we cant be sure which bank(s)are in trouble, be carefull who your platform provider banks with - the gov only guarantees 90% of £85k for one provider. Physical gold held in a Bullionvault.com vault in Zurich is the ultimate safe haven

BTW, WPCT would be a buy at about 28p - unless further bad holdings come to light

[buywell3] 02/10/2019 10:55

Time for you girls to read something a bit more deep



African Swine Fever


buywell has looked at this quite a bit cos he sees it as a MACRO event V the markets

MACRO events swamp ALL OTHERS in that they dictate direction just by themselves.


ASF has resulted in 25% of ALL the pigs in China being killed in the last 12 months or less.

That is 200 Million pigs dead. Every province in China is affected , now 25 provinces of Vietnam are also affected 40% of that country , which is another BIG pig eating country.

It has spread to circa 6 other countries in Asia and they too are having to kill their pigs.

Also now in the EU and Africa , and if you watch this expert talk he sees it like buywell as hitting ALL countries worldwide.

buywell sees $3 Trillion costs worldwide associated with ASF and the knock ons as ALL meat and fish and poultry protein prices escalate over the coming 3 years.

Pork prices have doubled in the last 6 months in China and elsewhere , other protein prices are also rising as pork runs out.

NO cure for ASF exists , watch this link to see when one is coming





ASF will IMO destabilise markets when the USA gets hit with the problem which buywell thinks is only a matter of months away.

Global inflation will occur IMO due to ASF over the next 3 years

Inflation in China due to ASF is already happening

all imo
dyor

[jonwig] 02/10/2019 07:01

The Telegraph names three managers who could be in line to take WPCT's management: Polar, Miton and Aberforth. But it also sees a chance that Woodford might stay on.



The working assumption seems to be that there is value in the portfolio. Few here would share that, I guess.

[smcni1968] 01/10/2019 21:30

The Woodford of Oz

[spectoacc] 01/10/2019 07:35

You'd think the bulls - and I'm looking forward to the first to present a cogent argument - would look at Woody having quietly slotted the majority of his personal shareholding in July, and think "hang on a minute..".

In his arrogance in expecting to make over 10% pa with WPCT, has Neil done himself a favour and made himself almost unsackable? No one else would run it for nothing. And so many cross-holdings with WEIF, not to mention the 9% stake, and only he can know where the bodies are buried.

If I was a new manager coming in to WPCT, I'd struggle to see how to resolve the issues of:

1. Most of the co's needing more funding at some stage - and clearly not from WPCT
2. A lack of any clear exits ahead
3. Needing to repay the OD
4. Having sold the easily-realisable assets already
5. Ongoing calls (albeit are most on WIM and not strictly WPCT?)
6. Unlisteds limits
7. A Not Asset Value
8. No realistic way of raising money via a share issue

If I was the Board, I'd do what they appear to be doing - quietly resigning one by one.

If I was the new Board, I'd try to get through to January, and perhaps offer Northern Trust a new manager in return for say a 6 month moratorium on the OD, then go hell for leather to realise as much value as possible from what's left.

[spikeyj] 01/10/2019 00:10

"... he has effectively run the investment trust for nothing for over four years ..."

for nothing? so way overpaid, then.

[psychochomper] 30/9/2019 23:02

Brian, you are welcome to “steal” as many upticks as you care to give yourself. I prefer to “steal” all of your money because you are long and I have shorted this POS. It’s likely I’ve already taken a fair chunk, but I’ve not stopped yet.

All depends on what you think is important, I suppose.

[brianarthur1939] 30/9/2019 21:04

Oh come on, I have to say that I have got a little bit of sympathy for poor old jonwig. I’m sure he was saying to himself “well well here am I, the Queen of Copy and Paste, unappreciatedly finding nuggets several times every day, and in steps that little rotter careful and with a few truthful well honed words steals all the upticks that I myself deserve.”

He probably couldn’t help his apoplectic burst of rage.

It could happen again, of course. Life can often be unfair, especially if you’re not that quick-witted.

[kpo115] 30/9/2019 17:29

Wonderful stuff, rex, extracting the K9P. "hatatak": LOL. Too funny for this thread,I daresay.

[rexrandi] 30/9/2019 17:14

bOW wOW!

Mi master jonwig he veri old and veri angrie. he shouted "i'm the only real proffet on my thread, not that limpdik winnie and his fake naimes. i was furst to predikt WPIST to be 30 sumthing witch it is now"

he threw his kup at the window and broken both. he tried to kik me but i grouled at him like when i want to hump is leg. now hes a bit affred.

i affred he wil have hatatak, then nobodie to hump or give me dogffood.


Woof Woof

rex t'dog

[henchard] 30/9/2019 16:29

And still more commentary:


Susan Searle, Chair of Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT), really does have some explaining to do as WPCT released its half-year numbers to the market this morning – reporting deadline day. Quite apart from the shocking performance of the fund under her watch, and the total mess it is in, we have been treated to an admission that the quoted NAVs released by the company have, quite simply, been wrong - a work of fiction ...


There was speculation over the weekend that Neil Woodford would today be fired as manager of the investment trust that bears his name.
However, this morning’s half-year results from Woodford Patient Capital (LSE: WPCT) noted only that the “board continues to evaluate the position of the portfolio manager and remains in dialogue with other potential managers.”
Here, I’ll review today’s results, and give my opinion on the trust’s current valuation and prospects ...

[biggest bill] 30/9/2019 15:41

This is a sample of the comments at the Telegraph Money article:


James Smith 30 Sep 2019 8:44AM
Never in the field of human investment has so much been lost by so many to so few.

John Steen 30 Sep 2019 11:56AM
@James Smith
James the value of your Woodford funds may fall as well as plummet.

[spectoacc] 30/9/2019 15:17

@daffy - "...Thus amazingly replicating the redemption pressures of an open ended fund in his closed ended investment trust". Agreed. Jan OD "renewal" is the crunch time. They might roll some of it if the alternative is not getting paid, but little doubt where WPCT is heading.

[jonwig] 30/9/2019 14:53

Add the Telegraph to my list;

At least the board of Neil Woodford’s listed investment trust are staying true to its name.

It is now three months since Woodford Patient Capital announced it was considering ousting the disgraced stockpicker after he dumped £1m of shares without notifying the company.

Yet the celebrity money manager continues to hang around like a bad smell. Investors must be tearing their hair out, wondering what the wait is for.

While the trust’s supine board dilly-dallies, shareholders have suffered huge losses.

The crisis first erupted in June when Woodford froze redemptions in his separate flagship Equity Income fund, sparking a scandal that has rocked the conservative world of fund management.

That £3.5bn vehicle has remained gated ever since, but the listed trust has continued to trade and those that own the stock have paid a hefty price.

The share price of Woodford Patient Capital Trust has crashed 42p since then. It is now valued at just £400m, about half the amount raised four years ago when it became the largest investment trust ever to be set up in the UK.

It has also been ejected from the FTSE 250 index and written down another three of its holdings, though bizarrely investors are being kept in the dark about which ones are now worthless.

As if it were needed, the company has provided further evidence of its damaging ties to the Bristol-based investment “guru”, revealing it has swung to a massive £232m pre-tax loss during the first half of 2019.

In the same period last year, it posted gains of £5m. In 2017, the figure was £52m. Net asset value has also slumped by a quarter to £654m.

It is time then for the board, led by chairman Susan Searle, to take serious action to address the crisis. It is urgent that Woodford is given the boot. The trust should also change its name to ensure all ties with the Woodford brand are severed.

The once-gilded Woodford name is damaged beyond repair and the company’s association with him is undoubtedly weighing on the share price heavily.

Until that happens there can be little hope of recovering some of the steep losses. That will help alleviate some of the short-term pressures and give the board breathing space to think more long-term.

Poisoned chalice?

But the bigger question is whether the damage is terminal.

Even a clean break may not be enough. A new portfolio manager will still be left trying to clean up the mess of Woodford’s rotten investment record.

Valuations of assets including stakes in the parent company of cold fusion technology firm Industrial Heat and tech start-up Benevolent AI have plummeted.

Others such have Precision Biopsy and SciFluor Life Sciences have also been written down significantly, and it has also inexplicably allowed itself to become a dumping ground for the unlisted shares that Woodford wanted to remove from his Equity Income fund.

Any replacement will also have their hands tied after Woodford ceded control over investment decisions for the trust to its banker Northern Trust as part of a renegotiation of an overdraft facility. Perhaps the simple explanation for why the 59-year-old is still in post is that nobody wants the job.

Faced with such dim prospects, there is another option: put the fund into wind-down mode, offloading quoted stakes in the market, and holding onto unlisted stocks until a decent price can be achieved.

Sometimes all that is left is to call it quits.

[jonwig] 30/9/2019 14:40

Come on, 'careful', go for it! You've got 12 up-votes telling you to.

Or, rather, you've got one person who votes you up multi-handled. The same who has never produced a cogent argument for keeping faith in Woodfinger, or a recent link to a supportive article. The FT, Citywire, Moneyweek, HL, all of them are totally negative: is there some conspiracy controlled by a devious blogger?

Maybe that one person can provide a half-decent argument along the lines, "I believe WPCT to be a promising investment because ... " [detailed evidence with citation, please].

Won't happen. Too much like hard work! Even Woody's own limpwilly, 'reasearchanalystman' is out of play: sacked?

[daffyjones] 30/9/2019 14:35

Spectoacc - remember the initial limit on unquoted holdings in WPCT was 60% of NAV, which was raised to 80% of NAV and then later changed to 80% of GAV (including the overdraft). Now they are breaching even that final limit and are looking to increase the limit even further.

The gearing is going to be the final downfall of WPCT. He's already had to sell up on Autolus, ADV and Ultrahaptics to meet the demands of the loan covenants, thus amazingly replicating the redemption pressures of an open ended fund in his closed ended investment trust. Can't see them being willing to renew the overdraft in January - why take the risk when the collateral being offered is almost exclusively unquoted unicorn dross. Conflict of interest though for Northern Trust as the loan provider and as the depository.

[daffyjones] 30/9/2019 14:31

jonwig - "So the poor returns in some cases were due to lower funding rounds. Ah! but the earlier higher funding rounds, manipulated by Woodfinger are not mentioned"

Yes, interesting to see in the report that a year ago, over 43% of the portfolio had its fair value determined by factor 1(a) - "the price of a recent investment", while now only 15% of the portfolio is valued on that basis. Now 58% of the portfolio has its fair value determined by factor 1(c)"... adjusted recent transaction prices (which consider the company's performance against key milestones and the complexity of the capital structure)." Only 12% of the porfolio was valued on that basis a year ago.

So recent funding rounds were used as the basis for valuation when Woody was making them at inflated prices, but now that others are providing the funding rounds at lower valuations, this has been abandoned. Convenient!

[spectoacc] 30/9/2019 14:08

A good (unusually for them) CityWire article on Woody:



Including:

"Among other negatives were:

a further 20.9% decline in net assets from £748 million to £591 million from 28 June to 26 September;
a proposal to give the trust more breathing space by lifting the 80% limit of gross assets that can be held in unquoted companies;
another proposal to publish NAVs monthly or quarterly rather than daily;
gearing, or borrowing, rising to 17.8% of net assets despite a target to cut it below 10% by the end of the year in a bid to de-risk the portfolio;
holdings in ADV and Ultrahaptics sold to reduce borrowings to £111 million but falls in NAV seeing the proportion of debt rise;
the sale of former top holding Prothena in order to drum up cash to meet funding commitments to other portfolio companies, ‘an extremely disappointing conclusion’;
the significant writedowns of Precision Biopsy and Scifluor Life Sciences due to Woodford’s inability to provide further funding because of the repositioning of WEIF as a FTSE 100-focused fund;
70% decline in UK rare disease specialist Mereo Biopharma."