Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[psychochomper] 11/10/2019 14:56

Do be careful, Little Beaker. On that, I do agree with Johnwig.

But thereafter, he has once proven he is a cretin. These so called illogical arguments have been made ever since the share price was 90p. Idiots like him have either bought (they said they did, in big size, but I have some doubts). To put it in perspective, many on this board have been deeply negative on all things Woodford starting at a time when Johnwig and company were attempting to mock their efforts.

Who would you trust? Those who avoided massive losses, or those who led the faithful to die in a big heap at the bottom of a cliff with deep financial wounds.

And I write this as someone who went short from 67p or so, bought back at 41p, and then sold again at 48p. I have never shorted a stock anywhere near the extent to which I have this one. And I have been extremely vocal - not as much as my brother Psychochopper who is now writing poetry - all the way.

In contrast, Johnwig has never described his current actual holding. Would you trust someone with tiny (or zero) balls?

Your call.

[scrapheap] 11/10/2019 14:55

Yes I think that's right - these Edgar filings are as clear as mud on the Autolus listing.



I think WPCT retains just under 2.1m shares, so lets say $10 (currently over $12) then that's over $20m so not to be sniffed at if needing to get a bit more cash in??

[scrapheap] 11/10/2019 14:47

i thought that was the other funds and WPCT retained?

[scrapheap] 11/10/2019 14:36

Out of interest, how much is the WPCT's Autolus holding worth say less 20% to get a sale away? That would presumably slice a good chunk off the od if absolutely needed?

[jonwig] 11/10/2019 14:28

Little B - for the unquoteds, the NAV is the NAV until an event changes it. You'll have seen that changes made by Link happen infrequently. You need to think of what these events might be:

- achieving its current valuation might mean a company relies on getting further rounds of funding. Often the only funder is WIM, which is a problem. The asset will be revalued only when the problem surfaces;

- the trust will have to make sales, and even more, WEIF will be a forced seller with common holdings. Forced sales don't go through at par, they go at a big discount;

- an imminent event is due with IH. First, their results to 31/12/18 are flagged as overdue, and second they are due another funding round (see WPCT H1 results). Any fresh funding need not preserve the current valuation, which most here think too rich. (And the opacity of this company doesn't give encouragement.)

I think these concerns go some way to explaining the discount, and others can no doubt find more. If you want a long position here, I think you need to get more detail behind the story, or it's a pure gamble.

[little beaker] 11/10/2019 12:53

10632 of 10642

If you look at back at previous RNS announcements over the past weeks and months you will see a marking to market or realistic valuation put on the major holdings in the portfolio. I challenge you to find another 25p of portfolio write-downs which would justify the current share price... I just don't see it myself.

I just think that you're all being too pessimistic, but it's usual in these selloffs to see overshooting to the downside as people over-react to previous bad news. The trust needs to be cheap to stabilise and then reach a new equilibrium.

[chucko1] 11/10/2019 11:36

I was thinking the same. But why not just buy the top ten in his fund yourself and sideline the lunatic.

[scrapheap] 11/10/2019 11:33

Whisper it quietly but with the banks and builders surging this morning on the possible Brexit deal (lots of caution obv) then Woody's top 10 holdings in his Focus fund suggest a long overdue bounce!

A false dawn?

[brianarthur1939] 11/10/2019 10:19

Temptation Temptation Temptation
Old jonwig went down to the station,
Zacchaeus was there,
All Naked and Bare,
Temptation Temptation Temptation

[volsung] 11/10/2019 09:40

A lemming may fly
Before we ask why

[1oughton] 11/10/2019 09:34

ok Eric Cantona...... you're wasted as a share muppetxxxxx prophet



whatever you say you poet

[ltcm1] 11/10/2019 09:28

Guys the lemons ripen before the peaches remember :).

[spectoacc] 11/10/2019 07:50

It's an upside-down J.

Listed at 100p, went up to a decent premium, now it's much of the way down the long part of the J, until it flatlines at zero.

[cc2014] 11/10/2019 07:35

The article competely misses the point. The question is whether NW is a good fund manager and can increase you wealth.

On the evidence he's lost 35% of the investment in 4 years based on NAV or 64% based on share price what makes anyone think suddenly he's going to become great at picking investment opportunities?

Even if somehow in a years time they've paid off the loan and have some new money to invest how could any investor be assured his investment decisions will be better then than they have been in the past.

Regrettably the J curve doesn't exist if shares go to zero like RM2 or Sphere.

[spectoacc] 11/10/2019 06:57

"...Effectively kitchen-sinked" is as laughable as that Stifel note. As usual, people assume the Not Asset Value, as produced by Link, has a basis in reality, when what they should be doing is looking at WPCT's holdings.

You wouldn't need to get much further than Industrial Heat to know that the kitchen-sinking has barely begun.

And that's before we get to the OD, future commitments, unlisted limits, gearing limits, 9% WEIF overhang..

A final value between 0p & 20p IMO, but with a very uncertain route to realising that, and absolutely no timescale.

Patient Captial - because you'd have to be a hospital case to invest.

[henchard] 10/10/2019 23:59

Little Beaker

"I think a lot of the revaluation is now reflected in the NAV and that the portfolio has been effectively kitchen-sinked."

I'd be interested to know if your view is evidenced-based (and what the evidence is) or if it's just your hunch.

[chucko1] 10/10/2019 23:37

The most remarkable thing about that Stifel note was not so much that they constructed a case, but that it was actually allowed to see the light of day by anyone senior. It’s garbage.

To even mention a “low OCR” when the share price is off two thirds (and in reality, so is the NAV) suggests that the mathematics of the situation has bypassed the author. The maths, taking time into account, is critical.

[henchard] 10/10/2019 23:19

The Stifel bull case is laughable:

"1) the initial portfolio should be through the J-curve"

Yeh, that's if the dross is identified early and funding quickly pulled. Not if you keep pumping cash into everything you've bought.

2) "A number of investments have reached demonstrable milestones in the last year or two"

Really? I'd like to see the "demonstrable milestones" for Industrial Heat and some of the others that were - but are no longer - Woodford's biggest bets.

"3) The historic share price discount to NAV is high at 38%, however, considerable uncertainty exists on the longer term valuation of the unquoteds (79% NAV) and ‘quoteds with no trading’ (24% NAV)."

That's a bull point?

"4) Ongoing Charge Ratio (OCR) is low at only 0.18%, with no management fee and the manager has to deliver a significant NAV performance (NAV >143p) to get paid any performance fee"

An OCR of "only 0.18%" is another bull point? Seriously, 0.18%? When the NAV and share price have been utterly decimated, and there's no evidence to suggest a FTSE 100 tracker with a tenth of the OCR and no performance fee won't continue to slaughter the negative returns WPCT has delivered for its long-suffering shareholders?

Sheesh, and Stifel "maintain a Hold recommendation."

[daffyjones] 10/10/2019 22:37

Broker note from Stifel rates it a Hold at 40p:


Reminder that Stifel rated WPCT a Buy at 86p last November and a Hold at 66p in June

"Bull Case
1) Unquoted investments at 79% of NAV and 'non-traded quoted' investments (24% NAV) are now maturing and the initial portfolio should be through the J-curve with scope for realisations. In a normal private equity type situation we would expect to see realisations from the more mature investments at gains above prior valuations.
2) A number of investments have reached demonstrable milestones in the last year or two
3) The historic share price discount to NAV is high at 38%, however, considerable uncertainty exists on the longer term valuation of the unquoteds (79% NAV) and ‘quoteds with no trading’ (24% NAV).
4) Ongoing Charge Ratio (OCR) is low at only 0.18%, with no management fee and the manager has to deliver a significant NAV performance (NAV >143p) to get paid any performance fee

Recommendation
WPCT continues to be a high risk investment, given the problems at the management company (Woodford Investment Management), structural leverage and illiquidity in the portfolio assets. For the share price to have a significant recovery, we think there need to be catalysts such as:
1) Realisations of sizeable unquoteds at or above previous valuation,
2) Reduction in leverage in line with boards target,
3) Successful renewal of a bank facility
4) Clarification and certainty over long-term management team and arrangements.
Whilst there have been a number of statements from the board on their intentions in recent months, there has been little in the way of actual developments, although the refreshing of the board members should be helpful.
Until we see some delivery on their intentions,we maintain a Hold recommendation."

[vincer58] 10/10/2019 22:35

See optibiotix , he's there