Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 02/2/2018 11:43

Regrettably I think Woodford has an upcoming issue.

His funds were targeted at the retail investor and the city boys didn't get their usual commission on the launch fee. It's not a good model for them if it succeeds.

Woodford's performance hasn't been great and the City will have it in for him now.

Watch out for all the downgrades on the stocks he's heavily into. PURP off 10% in two days on Jefferies note. It doesn't matter whether the note is right or wrong and whether the company defends it or not.

[andyj] 02/2/2018 11:27

New lows in the NAV and share price, that's it for me. Sold out at a small loss to prevent a bigger loss! GLA

[mad foetus] 02/2/2018 11:20

Ardevora are another outfit which refuses to meet management and do very well out of it.

[wantage] 02/2/2018 11:16

This is a cracking short.There's a ready borrow.Tight spread.Support looks finally to be cracking.
If phase 3 Prothena disappoints, who knows where the bottom lies.They don't get much better, or much easier.I'm going to owe TW bigtime for pointing it out.

[jl9] 02/2/2018 11:09

Woodford needs sectioning NOW.

[rackers1] 02/2/2018 10:07

well understand that yep.

[tim 3] 02/2/2018 09:41

Hi rackers.

Fair points.

My family has held funds of his over several decades and they have done very well.

I had my doubts but was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt based on his track record and having read his reasoning he posted on his own sight thinking maybe it was me that had it wrong after all I thought someone with his experience would know more about these things than me!

[rackers1] 02/2/2018 09:27

tim 3

good post and i quite agree. Was invested in his equity fund on inception but bailed a few years back.
My only query with your post though, and you put valid points there, is that if you disagreed with his reactions to these mistakes and as you say 'It was clear to see some time ago that there were big risks and it was no longer the safe secure investment it was a few years ago', why didnt you withdraw your investment from him ?

I dont quite understand why you remained invested when you were rightly seeing alarm bells while all he was seeing was top up opportunities.

[tim 3] 02/2/2018 09:16

I have previously respected Woodfords long term record as I look at long term value and accept that he is not a short term investor.

I also accept mistakes will be made as happens with any investor.

Its how he has reacted to these mistakes that worry me of late.

Look at his decisions recently as highlighted with CPI.

It was clear to see some time ago that there were big risks and it was no longer the safe secure investment it was a few years ago.

Not only did he not cut his holding but he bought more regularly effectively "averaging down" on the way down.

He reassured us he had met with the management and things were ok.

He told us the falls were overdone and added shares as they were at a 'depressed level',this was when the shares were around £5.

He also added it as a major holding in his new income trust where the main criteria is to have a safe dividend of 5%.

He previously said the dividend was secure(before changing his view to it may be cut before adding more shares in December).

He has some serious questions to answer imo.

Sorry for being slightly off topic but I feel his decision making is relevant.

[topvest] 01/2/2018 21:40

The Air Marshall - stop using playground bully boy tactics please. I'm not losing money like you. You might buy convertibles mate....I don't buy prams on wheels, but proper GT cars!

James Henderson has made an error today in my view. Really like James, but supporting Neil when the wheels are falling off is an error of judgement.

HOT is a much better buy and I've held for sometime. Its high risk and geared, but has LIQUID investments. There lies the problem with this toxic geared vehicle which has SIMILAR DEBT LEVELS, but FEW LIQUID INVESTMENTS. Surely, this is a basic investment principle that the Board has missed. If you have debt you need liquidity or cash flow.

All in my opinion, so DYOR.

[timnet] 01/2/2018 14:07

Useful article on HOT, jonwig, thanks. Interesting that Henderson Opportunities Trust sits on a discount of 15-17%. Maybe that's about where we should be...........and where I'll be buying more.

[kidknocked] 01/2/2018 12:44

Rackers. These are simple questions, surely you have an answer ?

[kidknocked] 01/2/2018 12:35

Rackers: why did you amend a number of your posts last weekend ? Also, why do you post as Lord Hindsight and the don of dons and tick up your own posts using these IDs ?
All very odd I?d say.

[harveydee] 01/2/2018 12:21

After the Capita blow up yesterday, the Woodford Income Focus Fund is now lower than when it launched (a year ago?), and that's *including* dividends ! Shocking, Absolutely shocking.

[andyj] 01/2/2018 12:16

Slithering towards a new all time low. I suspect that might trigger renewed selling.

[rackers1] 01/2/2018 11:39

Toffeeman understood.

Terry Smith is a far better long term bet however.

[ttg100] 01/2/2018 11:32

- am now down 13.03% on second tranche of WPCT but compared to rest of portfolio is not important.
- the reason I bought was to see if would out perform my trading over long term - did
same with JP Morgan Brazil which failed to beat me by a long way. Long way to go but
I am comfortably ahead of him so will just leave and if self destructs .........

[essentialinvestor] 01/2/2018 10:29

Good post.

[hpcg] 01/2/2018 10:27

Toffeeman - your objectives are coherent, but what is Woodford's record in this? What is the record of similar listed companies with these objectives? My observation is that private equity, which does not have the same remit but does at least provide exposure to the unlisted segment, has a more reliable record of returns. VCTs in theory should occupy this space but a lot of them are run as tax vehicles rather than aggressive venturers. Looking at Trusnet only really Artemis and Oxford are doing much to grow NAV in a way which might be expected.

In my mind the right tactic here is to buy in if a big winner starts to develop. The initial investors provided the seed capital, why not wait patiently on the sidelines. You may be one of those launch investors of course, in which case you don't have that freedom and instead have to weigh upside and downside. For those of us on the sidelines we can poke this with a pointed stick as much as we like with no financial consequences.

[fpladdict] 01/2/2018 10:03

Sold out of this garbage this morning. Terrible investment.

There is a hypocrisy with calling this "patient capital" and using that as an excuse for years of underperformance. That's because they appear to have used absolutely 0 patience in choosing what to invest in. Industrial heat lol. Good luck to all who remain.

[iq151] 01/2/2018 09:51

Brilliant TAM !!