Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[andy] 10/1/2018 12:03

whale,





That link will be clickable, you need to change make 'http' to 'hTTp'

Some well known US based fund has Prothena as a short

[the oxford whale] 10/1/2018 10:21

See Pfizer have pulled out of all amyloid based dementia research. Doesn't bode well for prothena's research does it? Looks remote that they will succeed where every other company has failed doesn't it? It appears as though the amyloid theory is complete bunkum. Another woodford disaster waiting to happen.http://www.bostonmagazine.com/health/2018/01/08/pfizer-alzheimers-cure/

[essentialinvestor] 10/1/2018 09:43

M, often find your stock specific posting helpful.

You also mention when an investment does not go according to plan,
so think you are very open about that.

[pediment] 10/1/2018 09:40

Small but imo significant move today, and yes, hpgc, may well be the most boring short ever but there is a possibility of things coming to a head here quicker than one might think.

[jl9] 10/1/2018 09:11

I bought in at launch with high hopes and sold out for around 15% gain. If I can manage it I'm guessing there are quite a few others who did similar. As far as I can see he's hoovered up overvalued toxic waste in the hope some of it'll come good. So yeah, I've changed my mind.

[uppompeii] 09/1/2018 22:51

I know you from way back Minerve and have no reason to doubt you, particularly as I sold at around 109. I'm sure quite a few took a gain on these.

[minerve] 09/1/2018 21:16

Thanks topvest. It is nice that some of us are honest and can trust a man's word. I would be happy to add that I have lost much money on Capita and PFG and, certainly with Capita, I should have seen the writing on the wall - but I didn't. I have spent part of Christmas brushing up on my accountancy skills wanting to make sure that I don't get burnt by the same mistake.

[topvest] 09/1/2018 21:13

Minerve - I believe you. I made a profit as well, but didn't do quite as well as you. It was an obvious subscribe and bank a profit IPO given the level of interest.

I think there is a sense of DENIAL amongst Woodford supporters at the moment. That will quickly disappear as and when the truth emerges of what a pile of absolute tosh the distinguished gentleman has purchased. It wasn't even cheap tosh it was very expensive tosh.

Its a real shame, but maybe Woodford has just been lucky with his investment record in the past which as far as I can ascertain centred around big pharma and tobacco (whilst ignoring the dot.com bubble). Anyway, what he is now doing is a million miles from where he started (i.e. merrily blowing bubbles with speculative loss making companies at already high valuations).

[minerve] 09/1/2018 21:08

OK. I wanted to add further information to my activity on WPCT. I want to make it clear that I am no liar and for those who are generally interested here is my activity. If you are bitter because you are sat on losses please filter me or ignore.

I subscribed in the open offer and received 29,175 shares on 21/04/2015 at £1.00 each.

I oversubscribed expecting not to get full allocation, but I did, and so I sold 9,175 shares on 21/04/2015 at 102.16p for a consideration of £9,373.18 at 12.18PM.

On 3rd September 2015 I sold my remaining shares, 20,000, for 114.351p each for a full consideration of £22,870.20 at 14:35PM that afternoon.

Forget the dump of my oversubscribed shares on the day of list and I make that a return of c14%.

[topvest] 09/1/2018 19:44

Taking a while to get the December fact sheets out at Woodford. Be interested to see what they say. All quiet on the website!

[minerve] 09/1/2018 16:10

Good post hpcg; not driven by bitterness or resentment because of being on the wrong side of the trade. ;)

NW has added PURP to his income fund! It hasn't gone down well from what I understand reading the comments on his site.

I am not a great PURP fan, I must admit. Not really a fan of most new '.com' entrants. Many do not seem to have any barriers to entry and are just front-ends on old shops - very easy to copy and quickly forgotten if not reminded.

Anyone remember myspace?

[hpcg] 09/1/2018 16:01

Just caught up the last month of post. Guaranteed that the negative posters, like me, have never been invested. My main interest is the knock on effect to PURP if the NW funds have to liquidate - the open ended primarily of course. My second interest is the intellectual one of process and hubris. The Invesco NW made investments in solid companies generating cash rather than chasing mania stocks. The standalone NW seems to simply invest in the highest dividend payers and moon shots. This is pretty much the opposite journey many of us make as investors.

The profit here is more likely than not shorting this, and given the debt maybe even to liquidation. It will be a slow ride down though IMO, unless there is a market wide sell of, and so there are likely better shorting opportunities.

[minerve] 09/1/2018 14:55

Don't upset kpo115, he needs a notarised document on such matters proving it! LOL

It's important you know. ;)

[toffeeman] 09/1/2018 14:45

I purchased at the start and sold out at 113.2 - thought I was smart!

Bought back at 94.7 so I am 11% down on that trade - but up a bit overall :)

[toffeeman] 09/1/2018 14:45

I purchased at the start and sold out at 113.2 - thought I was smart!

Bought back at 94.7 so I am 11% down on that trade - but up a bit overall :)

[minerve] 09/1/2018 12:52

kpo115

"Please desist from making pompous assertions."

I sold for a c14% profit. That is a fact! I am sorry that your own incompetence here clouds your ability to acknowledge that some of us are both capable and competent in these areas.

I have spent many years, decades even, investing in early stage companies and I founded a company (with others) that had its IPO on OFEX. Therefore I have valuable experience in such matters including valuations, capital requirements, expectations, risks etc.. from both sides of the equation.

If you don't believe I have any credibility here, and you don't believe my c14% return, I really don't care.

I am not going to lie to make your own failings and inadequacies more comfortable. Sorry.

[kpo115] 09/1/2018 12:17

Actually, Minerve, you beautifully make my point for me. When you posted on September 29 2015 the share price for WPCT was in the range of 104/105p. Really far down from the highs for this share. At that date you could not have bought for less than 100p. You are not allowed to make specious claims long AFTER THE EVENT, OK? I, for one, do not believe that you sold for a 14% profit.

Please desist from making pompous assertions. You do not have the credibility to do so.

[pediment] 07/1/2018 14:43

Bear flag moving to compression and breakout down. Test support at 81.10, possible retest of approximate apex then a further move south imo

Hence why I am 'short' at 85.00 (just for transparency)

[p1nkfish] 07/1/2018 12:43

So very true jonwig - "The stockmarket has a habit of making fools of the overconfident."

[topvest] 07/1/2018 11:33

The Dec 2017 fact sheet for the Equity Income Fund will be very interesting. What is the AUM versus £8.25 billion in November? Not sure when these are updated.

[jonwig] 07/1/2018 11:27

This one, I think:

“But I believe I’m absolutely right. I don’t know when I’m going to be proved right, but I’m utterly convinced that I am right, as I have been right before.”



Of course, getting your timing right is just as important as being right, as Tony Dye discovered to his cost - predicted the end of the dotcom boom six years too early and lost his job.

[topvest] 07/1/2018 11:24

We are not "after the event"....it's early stages of plunging to zero or close to in my view. I did think that they would recover and be a buy in the next bear market. Now my thinking has moved on and I see the whole WPCT as toxic overvalued junk and the leverage will kill it. Maybe a contrarian view at this stage, but its my view.

[mazarin] 07/1/2018 11:01

Thanks Jonwig, the annoying fact remains, that anyone can be 'right after the event' and many enjoy doing just that. It makes them appear knowledgeable. The real skill (or luck) lies in being able to confidently predict where a share is going next. Incidentally by referring to 'his FT interview', I'm assuming you're referring to Neil Woodford?