Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[toffeeman] 23/1/2018 14:13

Nah - the supernumerary who runs the spreadsheet is off with the flu

[timnet] 23/1/2018 13:04

Interesting - the NAV hasn't been this late before, has it? Some revaluations going on?

[minerve] 20/1/2018 11:17

kpo115

There have been no aberrant posts from me. I understand this investment better than most here. I apologise for my experience as a small company founder and investor. I should have followed a respectable career, like yours, as a thread troll with contempt for knowledge; I would then not have been able to use platitudinous old criteria to realise the share price was getting ahead of itself for a 14% return and then be in the current position of buying into this investment at almost its cheapest ever. What have I done? Where did it all go wrong?

Here is to being you! Cheers! 🍺

[topvest] 19/1/2018 20:35

See his main fund has not suffered big outflows in December - AUM 8.27 billion versus 8.25 billion in November. Investors just about keeping faith, but for how much longer? He keeps peddling the message of being a value investor. If he's a value investor then why invest in speculative stuff like RM2 - just doesn't make sense at all. RM2 paragraph is interesting saying it is no longer a big position. Dressed up way of saying you lost 95% of your money on a totally disastrous investment. Not had a chance to read properly. Also made me chuckle when noticed he says we are in a bear pharmaceuticals market. Are we really...we are not on the pharmaceutical funds I own.....looks like a bull market to me Mr Woodford.

[elmfield] 19/1/2018 19:34

How could a man so good at running Edinburgh inv trust which is mostly
playing the timing game at top thirty stocks make such an error
to start running this type of investment vehicle,
They are just totally different, and many are paying a heavy price for
assuming his ability would suit this type of vehicle.

[chinahere] 19/1/2018 19:29

I've held these from the start and made a bit of profit by selling some early, but today I decided to sell the rest. It's probably a 15% loss to me overall.

The recent update from Woodford didn't give me much confidence that the unlisted stocks were going to provide long term.

Good luck to holders though.

[kpo115] 19/1/2018 19:07

Brilliant post Minerve. I knew from previous acquaintance you had it in you: that is why I was so mortified at those aberrant few posts.

I now totally accept that you made that 14% profit that you mentioned. Please accept my apologies for my aberrant disbelief!

I now reserve my disbelief for those strange investors who never understood what the purpose of this Investment trust really was and how silly it is to apply their platitudinous old criteria to it.

[essentialinvestor] 19/1/2018 18:41

Ah right, thanks for the clarification Tim.

[tim 3] 19/1/2018 18:39

Yes but as it has dropped in value it is not a top 10 holding anymore its .89% of his equity income and 1.39 of his income focus.

[essentialinvestor] 19/1/2018 18:25

Does he still hold CPI?.

Noted his previous comments about adding, however it does not
appear to be a top 10 holding, may be looking at the incorrect data.

[minerve] 19/1/2018 18:23

kenmitch

Can you please take your nonsense elsewhere? WPCT is a long-term investment and so the trust was never going to return significant share price performance in the first 5 years plus. You have no idea on the rationale Woodford is using to increase his positions in companies! He will know more about those companies than you do. It isn't a case of averaging down like you make it out to be, it is about maximising your opportunity. Some of those companies may require more seed capital which means naturally Woodford will be increasing his positions. Some ideas will not prosper, some will die. When this fund matures it will move into the higher quartile. The fact that you are comparing it now is utter stupidity!

You obviously know nothing about start-ups, young company investment.

I suggest that you start your own thread comparing apples, oranges, mangoes and tomatoes because they share the same wrappers.

[tim 3] 19/1/2018 18:21

And Woodford is still doubling up on shares he got wrong with CPI,lost count of the amount of times he has added these on the way down.


hxxp://citywire.co.uk/money/woodford-buys-more-capita-despite-dividend-threat/a1085179?ref=related-news

[kenmitch] 19/1/2018 17:12

harveydee

Yes still quite active and (good) far less blue sky these days.

Warrants and sub shares are now very few unfortunately, but yes, still posting on them andbuying whe good value.

tim3.

Such a shame you’ve missed out on great gains for so many Investment Trusts over last 2 years. It’s so easy to do well with them and such a shame that fans didn’t realise in time how many beginners mistakes Neil Woodford was making and then repeating! eg doubling up on shares he had got wrong by buying even more after they crashed, and clear lack of proper research with other disasters. He used to do very well,with the odd bad run just being in the wrong sectors. But this time it has been incompetence.

[wantage] 19/1/2018 13:54

Are fund managers more likely to buy or sell this at present? They've lost money for their clients, probably bought too many at the outset, even averaged down and they're underwater.Tons of overhead resistance to contend with.Tons of unquoted stocks in a
stodgy and difficult market.

I think this is a great short and have done so along with many others.

[hpcg] 19/1/2018 10:02

At least Woodford will soon be able to expunge RM2 from his wall of shame, er I mean his list of portfolio holdings.

[tim 3] 18/1/2018 23:40

kenmitch

Good post.

Have been looking at investment trusts for a while now but have reached the same conclusion many of the best have had such a good run massively up in the last 2 years that they look pretty toppy here and it may be best to wait,wish I had known about them before as they suit my cautious style of investment well and would have bought when they were more modestly valued.

[topvest] 18/1/2018 21:22

Still no December fact sheets out.

[harveydee] 18/1/2018 18:46

Many thanks kenmith, that's really useful ! I used to be a subscriber to the MW site, is it still fairly active ? Also do you still do a lot of warrants trading ?

[kenmitch] 18/1/2018 17:44

harveydee.

A problem with suggesting Investment Trusts to invest in now is that it is doing so after several excellent years and possibly near the top. That's why imo it was a mistake investors being patient with a terrible performer like Woodford Patient Capital.

e.g Woodford Patient Capital was 15th out of 16 Trusts in the UK ALL COMPANIES sector when I last checked at MINUS 8% over the last 12 months compared with Manchester and London, the best performer up 61%!!!!

Also among Global Investment Trusts (a big plus with many Trusts is that they provide the opportunity to invest all round the world) Independent Investment Trust issued their results today. They had a great year with NAV up 54% and share price up more than 80% as share went from discount to premium thanks to superb performance.

I run an Investment Trust Portfolio on Mike Walters investment site and it is up 55% in just under 2 years since it was started and 27% annualised. And John Barron runs one in Ivestors Chronicle that has also had another very good year.

UK smaller companies Trusts have had a great run, and a lot of UK focus Trusts have done very well. So now is probably a good time to look elsewhere for yet more upside.

The following are not tips but are imo well worth checking out. i.e use Trustnet website and also the Trust's own websites.

PHOENIX SPREE DEUTSCHLAND. 384p. PSDL.

This one has had a great run but there could be a lot more to come. It invests almost entirely in Berlin property where prices are rising very fast from a very low level.

MACAU PROPERTY TRUST. MOP £2

An obscure Trust trading around 25% discount to NAV. 2 big plus points are now very fast GDP growth (14% last year) and also a bridge linking Macau to Hong Kong is due to open this year.

UTILICO EMERGING MARKETS UTILITIES TRUST.. UEM. 224p and at 10% NAV discount.

This one is at top of current trading range so might dip a bit short term. This Trust invests in Emerging Markets Utilities. Utilities tend to hold up better in bear markets and anyway this Trust has a very good record.

VINACAPITAL VIETNAM. VOF. 350p.

Vietnam stock market and capitalism are newish and growing fast. Their market was exceptionally cheap and is still only on a mid teens PE even after a great year in 2017 and very good 2016 too. So there could well be further to go. (Again though such a shame to be stuck in a dud Trust like Patient Capital while so many Trusts were doing well).

FIDELITY JAPANESE VALUES. FJV 157p and NAV 177p.

Japan has also had a very good run but their market is still good value and many analysts for what that's worth are bullish on Japan. FJV is not the best performer in the smaller companies sector but is doing well now. The best performers are the Baillie Gifford Trusts but they are trading at a significant premium.

BLACK ROCK WORLD MINING. BRWM. 421p and NAV 466p.

The manager is very bullish about further gains for mining sector. Mining behemoths Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Glencore account for 25% of the BRWM portfolio.
The share price has doubled from the lows but even so the dividend is around 5% and there could well be dividend increase this year as some of their main holdings doubled and even tripled their dividends last year while others renewed theirs.

J P MORGAN RUSSIA. JRS. 545p and NAV 631p.

Russian market is cheap but is now doing well. Some won't go near anything to do with Russia but that provides opportunities. Obvious political risk but against that some of the Trusts main oil holdings are still on single figure PE ratios. AND the dividend is nearly 5% too.

STRATEGIC EQUITY. SEC. 235p and NAV 275p.

For those only interested in UK Trusts! This Trust used to be a high flyer and trading at a premium but has been in a too long dull patch. It has a concentrated portfolio and the Managers work closely with the Companies the Trust holds.

Note that some of these Trusts are trading at bigger NAV discount than Woodford Patient Capital despite much better performance.

[netnut] 18/1/2018 12:47

Two threads that I know of.
'How many WPCT threads are there?'

[mad foetus] 18/1/2018 07:37

I would look at the records of HSL or THRG and the discount they are on. WPCT really needs an investment to be quoted at a big premium to book value imo to show there is real value in some of the underlying holdings

[stewart64] 18/1/2018 07:30

Comments appreciated re. the discount, I'll take those on board.

[harveydee] 18/1/2018 04:02

Kenmitch, any particular ITs you recommend ? Thanks.