Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 27/1/2018 19:14

Very pleasant. Thought Woodford was a value investor before he got over confident and changed his strategy to investing in blue sky stocks, otherwise known as sucker stocks using Stockopedia jargon. In fact I think he still says he’s a value investor. Planet Woodford!

[p1nkfish] 27/1/2018 13:00

You've done it again topvest.
It's not a fund for value investors, muppet.

Now get your history homework done so you can get to bed early Sunday.

[jonwig] 27/1/2018 12:22

Citywire yesterday:

Neil Woodford has attacked Kerrisdale Capital, the US hedge fund seeking to undermine one of the top holdings in the Woodford Patient Capital Trust (WPCT), saying its claims about Irish biotech company Prothena are ‘totally inaccurate and unsubstantiated,’ Citywire'sInvestment Trust Insider reports.



He shouldn't rail against short sellers. They are taking huge risks and only the facts will ultimately decide. He can put his side of the argument (and has done) without getting personal.

Personally I've no interest in WPCT nor his other funds.

[pugugly] 27/1/2018 09:57

Now maybe Woodford should have invested here - Up over 100% (at peak $0.54) since I posted earlier - Did anyone follow ? However could easily retrace all gain and more if next update unfavourable or multibag from here if further successes - (No investment advice intended - just an illustration of the volatility in early stage biotech)


PUGUGLY - 10 Jan 2018 - 18:11:54 - 1523 of 1562 ::: WOODFORD PATIENT CAPITAL TRUST ::: - WPCT
Have a look at this company - Very early stages but an interesting and differentiated route




Precis of reseach Mackie Reseach - "ProMIS Neurosciences has a leading drug in development to address Alzheimer Disease. The drug, PMN310, is based on a new Alzheimer’s theory, and it has the potential to become the best-in-class Alzheimer’s drug.
This drug probably has a lower risk profile compared to Biogen’s aducanumab and Pfizer/J&Jâ;€™s bapineuzumab, which could give a partnering deal sooner rather than later for PMN310. Based on currently available data it is beliweved by Mackie Research Canada that PMN310 should be better than Biogen’s aducanumab, and should have the best-in-class potential to treat Alzheimer’s."

At $0.245 closing price last Friday, ProMIS has a $54 million market cap.
Mackie Research has a Speculative BUY with a $0.50 target. e&oe - note - All cautions apply - So DYOR - This is not investment advice - but (imo) worth further investigation. Certainly (imo) potentially a more interesting proposition than some of the investments in Patient Capital.

If anyone follows up I would be most interested in your views.

Declaration - I have a small position.

Quote;

[topvest] 27/1/2018 09:53

Not really. It’s a 100% speculative portfolio. There is not one underlying holding that I would buy as a value investor. So 100% bad from my perspective!

EDIT apologies, probably 90% speculative is closer to the mark. AJ Bell at 1.5% is very good, for example. I would hold that company if it was listed.

I do not invest in heavily loss making companies. Most value investors don't and I'm not sure that Woodford has a good record in this domain. Very different from large pharmaceuticals and tobacco companies.

Anyway, I've said enough for now. Be interested to see what happens.

[p1nkfish] 27/1/2018 09:44

Close to 100% bad?
Any credibility topvest had has gone.
Dipstick.

[ttg100] 27/1/2018 09:09

>> timnet
this one is free
hxxp://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/woodford-blasts-us-hedge-fund-selling-prothena-short/a1086881?re=51897&ea=291972&;utm_source=BulkEmail_Money_Daily_Summary&utm_medium=BulkEmail_Money_Daily_Summary&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_Money_Daily_Summary

[topvest] 27/1/2018 08:46

kpo115 I did not say 70% of WPCT's investments were good and 30% were bad. They are close to 100% bad in my view. The 70:30 was referring to the Woodford Equity Income Fund and was my view as a value investor.

[topvest] 27/1/2018 08:26

Exactly. Prothena is LOSS MAKING with a valuation of US$ 1.7BN. The drug may work or it may not as it hasn't gone through the phase III process. Woodford argues we are in a BEAR market for such stocks. You have to laugh. Value investors would be buying this at something close to zero!

"Fueled by deep scientific understanding developed over decades of research in protein misfolding and cell adhesion disorders — the root causes of many serious and currently untreatable diseases — Prothena is establishing a fully integrated research, development and commercial biotechnology company and has advanced several drug candidates into clinical studies while pursuing discovery of additional novel therapies.

Our antibody-based therapeutic candidates are in development for the potential treatment of a number of indications, including AL amyloidosis (NEOD001), Parkinson’s disease (PRX002/RG7935), and ATTR amyloidosis (PRX004).

Our lead program, NEOD001, is in two global clinical studies in patients with AL amyloidosis. This includes a Phase 3 registrational study in patients with AL amyloidosis and cardiac dysfunction who are newly-diagnosed and treatment-naïve, and a Phase 2b registration-directed study in patients with AL amyloidosis and persistent cardiac dysfunction who have been previously treated with plasma cell directed therapy. PRX002/RG7935 is currently in a Phase 2 study in patients with early Parkinson’s disease. Prothena continues to generate additional novel antibodies and has recently entered PRX004 into preclinical development for the potential treatment of ATTR amyloidosis."

[netnut] 27/1/2018 08:20

@solonic if I could moderate your post I would. You fill up threads with comments aimed at other users.

[dr biotech] 27/1/2018 07:58

About 2000 cases of Amyloidosis in the US per year. Enough to make a decent amount, not a blockbuster....if successful.

No position here, but interested observer.

[p1nkfish] 27/1/2018 01:35

Keep a close eye on Benevolent AI.
Positive.

[p1nkfish] 27/1/2018 01:17

Expect good things out of Benevolent AI.
😊

[p1nkfish] 27/1/2018 00:19

Reads like peak sell-out is at hand (or happened) with so many exited already.
Is this bottom then?
Who has been hoovering them up?
Then What?
Interesting times.

[chinahere] 27/1/2018 00:00

Compelling writing Topvest - thanks.

Woodford's had a great track record hasn't he. But like you, I fear that his new found independence has resulted in some imprudent investments.

Reading the recent WPCT update didn't give me much confidence (fund raising and 'jam tomorrow' were my thoughts) so I decided to sell my holding. Thankfully I'm out of WPCT completely now (although at a loss).

You've now made me think that I should sell my remaining Equity Income holding too.

[topvest] 26/1/2018 21:45

That's all for now!

[topvest] 26/1/2018 21:45

Benevolent AI is the company that has been flipped between the two at a valuation something like 5 times different to a few months earlier. Read Tom's very interesting story.

[topvest] 26/1/2018 21:39

Prothena - think Woodford is moaning about this being shorted.

Prothena
Prothena shares weakened after a Research & Development (R&D) day, in which investors were given an update on the company’s pipeline progress. Despite a lot of positive reassuring information across a range of the company’s late-stage and earlier-stage assets, the market appears to have focused on a delay in its Vital phase III trial for NEOD001, the company’s potential treatment for AL amyloidosis. We have reached a very different conclusion from the market.

Isn't Amyloidosis a VERY RARE CONDITION...that's going to be a big money spinner then!

[topvest] 26/1/2018 21:36

A nice way of saying I've lost most of shareholders money...sorry might be more appropriate!

RM2 International
The company announced in December that it had been unsuccessful in securing funding for the year ahead. RM2 has had its fair share of challenges in recent years and in many respects, it epitomises how difficult it can be for early-stage businesses to develop and scale-up. We continue to see value in the disruptive pallet technology that RM2 International has been progressing towards commercialisation, overcoming many production challenges and enhancing the product offering along the way. The position is now small in the context of the patient capital portfolio but we will continue to work with the company to find an appropriate solution for its capital requirements and to give it the best chance of fulfilling its potential.

[pugugly] 26/1/2018 21:34

topvest: You are I am afraid talking to the deaf and blind who believe the sun shines out of Woodfords nether region -

I much enjoy you analysis which is virtually spot on - OK I will not at this stage highlight the niggle points save only to suggest that if possibly 3 or 4 of the unlisted had a breakthrough then the trust might meet its objective. But general experience suggests that maybe only between 1 in 20 or 1 in 25 greenfield start-ups multi-mega bag - eg: 15-20 fold + and the rest fold or struggle on burning good money after bad - Odds are not in Woodford's favour - OK If went to a 25% plus discount I might gamble some spare cash only as the Trust is relativly liquid so could bail out without getting locked it - which one would be with a private company and as woodford is with his unlisted coys.

[topvest] 26/1/2018 21:28

I'm afraid it is relevant if they are flipping investments between the two vehicles which is not what they should be doing in my view. There is nothing dishonest in my post. You just don't like my assessment.
My post covers WPCT firstly and then the Equity Income Fund. If you don't think they are connected that is your view. Its not mine.
Rather than getting emotional, point out a rational argument.
I must admit to not liking Shareprophets until recently. He has been proven spot on a number of times though and so I think he is worth listening to.

[solonic] 26/1/2018 21:23

We are talking about WPCT not the Equity fund! You guys do not seem to make the hugely important distinction between the two. Dishonest and wrong argument, don't you see? Unintelligent also.

What is more disturbing is that you and your buggyboo comrades keep on quoting Shareprophets which, (and I have to be careful here) although it's the darling of relatively inexperienced small investors, has a definite 'agenda' with certain investments. Are you and your mates in cahoots with them? It certainly looks like it.....