Wey Education Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 02/9/2019 09:19

& if Miton are getting some customers cashing in

as you claim

then top slicing & bagging some profit seems very logical to me; rather than try to sell any losers

(& who knows, if the Miton fund mngr is getting any criticism about any losing investments

there is nothing like bagging some hard profit to answer your critics & say 'some up some down, that's normal; you cant replace me !'

who knows the reality inside Miton....we can only guess)

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we also know that big holders can only slice when there is demand

at some micro cap AIM shares there is often no demand....where big holders cannot sell more than say 5000pnds/day for a few days in a row or they see the price fall

[smithie6] 02/9/2019 09:12

bones
"Miton were never as low as 7.6% in WEY."

I disagree.

if you look at the 2 RNS in the 3 for holdings issued just after the Nov 2017 placing (to raise ~5M, partly to fund the acq. made 1 month later of Acad. 21; 1.6M)

you will see it states
Miton holding reduced as a % due to the the new shares (~20% dilution)
7.6% from 9.x %

the data is there to see/read

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& in recent months Miton have reduced from 12.X % to 10.X %

hence me stating that Miton must have bought at some time in between

& I wondered if it was at ~6p

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your info that Miton took 20% in the IPO at 3.5p is useful info
thanks

& if correct then I see Miton being very happy to reduce & bag some profit
but at 3.5p & sell at ~11p...
..it's a good % gain for them

& then look for another IPO where they can invest again at 3.5p !!

but I dont see it as a negative sign for WEY, Miton stake is worth ~ 1.5M...a big chunk....phps Miton see it as a bit big, too much of a portfolio in 1 share...& want to reduce risk a bit & spread the cash around more holdings...

[bones] 01/9/2019 23:01

Smithie6, I don’t follow that. Miton (two different funds in the Miton group) opened up on flotation with 20% of WEY acquired at the float price of, I think, 3.5p. They got slightly diluted with the 2017 placing and the shares issued to Mr Massie in lieu of salary but they only started selling down in 2018 and still hold 14.3M shares today compared to the 18.8M they got on flotation in 2015. Miton were never as low as 7.6% in WEY.

Given their cost base of 3.5p, selling is easy now for them especially as they have a redemption problem (a bit like Woodford on a smaller scale). Miton are selling down a lot of their illiquid stocks through necessity right now and it is a pain in the rear for all of us holding their stocks.

If Miton still have 14M+ to sell, there will be headwinds in the WEY share price but the potential upside is winning the argument right now!

[smithie6] 01/9/2019 22:29

Mito

had 7.6% after the placing to raise about 5M in nov. 2017
they didnt take part

recently reduced from 13% to 10.x %

"if' they went from 7.6% to 13% when the share price was 6-7p
then they are taking/banking a nice % profit

which is part of the game

(& maybe someone at Miton bags a bonus !; we can only try to make educated guesses....
the reality might be very different

slicing holdings to create cash to take in a new fund raise for some share ?
generate cash to pay wages ?!

[smithie6] 01/9/2019 22:08

..interesting imo how the WEY MD said that a lot of the growth was due to children from families where the children were 'disengaged' from the school system, that the school system (of 30 kids learning at essentially, imo, the same unified speed) wasnt working for some children (& nationally even a small % equates to a lot of children)

& that was where the growth in WEY customers was coming from

interesting, I had thought that child actors etc , who have problems with normal school hours at their local town school were a large part of the customers base

maybe its a result of the acquisition of Acad. 21 in Dec 2017.....its a diff. sector than the child actors ...

mention made of co-operating/working with Govt.
interesting times...

[napoleon 14th] 01/9/2019 19:07

Nice comments on JW's chat - from 18:00

[cyberbub] 31/8/2019 14:58

Yes I wonder if they are trying to reduce below 10% say, or sell out completely?

[mfhmfh] 30/8/2019 16:24

need Miton to finish selling and then share price may really take off. IMHO.

[abergele] 30/8/2019 16:09

Nearly a 30% rise since 2.45pm on Wednesday,,good enough for me to be happy.gla lth's

[glennrcharles] 30/8/2019 14:10

Just tipped again by Sean. Now not Agora but actually still Agora. Still Sean is a great guy.

[cyberbub] 30/8/2019 12:09

Well fair enough I may stand corrected... I do wonder if the numbers will start rising again though, in these times we live in. Nevertheless there is still plenty of market for WEY to target...

[netcurtains] 30/8/2019 12:06

cyberbub: Wiki says only 37% gave that reason in USA in 2007 and its falling fast but numbers of home schooling rising. You're remembering old sterotypes that no longer apply anywhere near the same level.

[netcurtains] 30/8/2019 09:08

Hi Smithie6: I'm not an expert I just looked at first couple of reports in both countries.
This report says 3.4% in USA but its not 2019 so assume a bit higher.
In UK there are about 8M school kids but only about 50K homeschooled



So just to catch up to current USA percentage its a ten bag growth rate (at least)

[smithie6] 30/8/2019 09:07

chart is looking good imo

trending upwards & hopefully it can get up & out of the range of 10-13p of lasr X weeks....over time

[smithie6] 30/8/2019 09:05

"In USA home school market is about 3.5% of kids"

if it's such a high % then can/shouldn't WEY try to be present there ?

or very expensive to set up, & create new course material ?

(& the co. has retreated from its attempts to expand in Nigeria & Asia)

(surely some material should be re-useable ?

- learn French
- learn maths
etc

[smithie6] 30/8/2019 09:00

seeing the rush of smallish buys from 08:00:00

I assume this has been tipped/mentioned somewhere

[smithie6] 29/8/2019 21:00

"In USA home school market is about 3.5% of kids
In UK home school market is about 0.35% of kids"

really !!

thanks for the info....I didnt know that...

but yes it is a growing sector...and more ppl work from home, more ppl travel as part of their life/work, use of IT and the net keep growing...

and more people are getting their income via oneline work, be it having a youtube channel, promoting clothes, promoting food, promoting tourist places,....or freelance IT workers
who have difficulty to turn up at fixed hours at a physical venue to learn about X
and hence are a market for education/learning via the net or IT
---------


(in 20 years I think the use of IT in educating all people will amaze us all...
3D....better interaction....use of AI to adapt the training to the person....
...to think...when I went to school teachers were allowed to use physical punishment...

(and maybe a lot of modern kids would benefit from some of that to help them understand the difference between right and wrong !; & maybe fewer people would be getting knifed in modern Britain :-( or so many dying from balconing)

[netcurtains] 29/8/2019 15:43

We know the directors think the company is doing very well (they bought shares at around about this price).

We know the trading update says they are doing well right now

We know that internet schooling has only just scratched the surface.

In USA home school market is about 3.5% of kids
In UK home school market is about 0.35% of kids
There is huge growth potential here (assuming we're lagging behind the USA figure but on same trajectory - we're a 10 bagger just to get to USA figures).

[smithie6] 29/8/2019 09:09

turnover growth

4.2M to >6M
= + 1.8M

and in my calc. yesterday I gave ~330k as the extra due to the acq. in Dec 2017 of Acad. 21

so

nett increase or LFL increase
looks imo to be
4.2M + 1.8 - 0.33
=~ 5.7 M (+1.5M)

1.5/4.2 = 36%

if Im right its very good

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can the poster who p/yesterday wrote 17% for the lfl growth
please comment ?
since surely only 1 of us can be right

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(Im not impressed with the quality of the RNS

since ot is intentional spin and is not fair truthful financial reporting since it talks of growth and states a high figure

but
a part of that is due to 4 months of extra turnover because of an acquisition

but that fact is not mentioned

slap on the wrist to the FD/MD imo)

[smithie6] 29/8/2019 08:56

"adj. discretional costs"

advertising is 1

what others are you thinking of ?

[leoinvestoruk] 29/8/2019 08:53

I wrote about WEY on my blog yesterday here:
hxxps://leoinvestoruk.home.blog/2019/08/28/wey-education-full-year-update/

To specifically address comments on here (in reverse order):

cyberbub: I think Wey could choose to significantly beat the FY2020 0.3p EPS forecast (although probably not up to 1p), but that they will instead increase expenditure on advertising and on further improving the quality of their offering.

smithie6: FY2021 turnover forecasts did previously look very challenging to me, but using the new FY2019 they now look achievable (although by in means "in the bag"). I don't think an acquisition is likely but this would be down to the institutional shareholders and estate of David Massie.

netcurtains: WH Ireland have said they won't update FY2020 / 21 forecasts until they have more information which they expect to have "when the company reports its full year results in November, if not before". I don't think the radio advertising can have any effect on FY2019 revenue since 2019/20 fees are not due until after their year end.

General note regarding the FY2021 EPS forecast: This is a profit forecast specified to 2 significant figures, that was issued over 30 months ahead, for a company around breakeven, that had consistently missed all targets, and that had previously declared large and controversial exceptionals. It is essentially completely meaningless. However, it was made with Wey's blessing and I would like to think Wey will therefore aim to slightly beat it, and I believe they will find themselves in a situation to do so simply by adjusting their discretionary costs.

[cyberbub] 28/8/2019 21:06

Looks to me like an EPS of approaching 1p for FY20 may well be 'on' here (ie. 1 year early) At a growth p/e of 20 that could be 20p plus 5p for their cash pile. I've bought a few and am quite happy to wait a year for 100% in a relatively safe, UK based, seemingly well-run company in a growth market, and a potential takeover target to boot! Given the prospects and targets for the next couple of years, surely a takeover price would have to be 30p+ to tempt the board to recommend it?

NAI

[smithie6] 28/8/2019 14:48

we'll see but turnover from 6M to 9M in financial years a,b,c

& PBT of 1.5M & EPS 0.82p in fin. yr to 31 Aug 2021

looks a tough ask
but would produce for all shareholders if achieved...

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& if growth keeps being produced in next 2 years (showing they have good products & that demand exists) then the value of the co. as an acquisition must surely rise.....to then market the products via a bigger network..
..but I'd prefer that not bt by anyone & left to keep growing/compounding