Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 02/4/2024 23:05

Could be a very interesting year for property exposure.

[aleman] 31/3/2024 13:44

Q1 GDP growth ahead of forecasts in HCMC.



International trade is booming:



Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of US$8.08 billion, up 63.9% year-on-year, in the first quarter of 2024, reported the General Statistics Office (GSO) on Friday. In the period, total export-import turnover hit $178.04 billion, up 15.5% from the same period last year.

[arja] 28/3/2024 14:09

disappointing performance again today after Vietnam indices rose again modestly .
Elbrus55- capitalism is far from perfect especially under the Tory clowns as is democracy but far better than communism which you seem to be a fan of . just look at China and North Korea or are you a fan of Kim Jong Un too:) ?

[aleman] 28/3/2024 09:24

All time high is starting to come into view:

[elbrus55] 27/3/2024 15:41

Yes keep in mind that IN isThe world's most populous countryThe world's third largest economy by GDP PPPAn MSCI EM consistent country VN is none of those things. Mostly known for having a communist government which successfully beat the scourge of Western capitalism in a war when all the odds seemed against them and at terrible human loss . The government nationalized 100% of the land and has still never sold a single square metre.... But great investment potential!

[mancman1] 27/3/2024 14:52

I think the real problem here is the private equity.
RCP has an even higher discount than VOF, and the main factor appears to be market suspicion of the valuations given to private equity. RCP protests that most of its holdings are near coming to market, but so far this has not worked. Ironic that not so long ago RCP always traded at a premium.

Not long ago Scottish Mortgage had a similar discount, but it has narrowed it considerably, partly because of a large share buyback. So far though the share buyback hasn't worked for RCP. Another private equity trust with an even bigger discount is ICGT.

[aleman] 27/3/2024 09:35

Partial tender offers at IGC went extremely well. Perhaps it depends on the individual details. Meanwhile, buybacks continue to fail here in their main objective, with NAV at 602p and the discount nearly 24%.


Another VN Index 19-month high and up again today (just).

[hpcg] 27/3/2024 08:29

elbrus - agreed on all of that. The point of an IT is that there is always a market for the shares semi independent of the liquidity of the underlying. No one in an IT ever got gated.

[elbrus55] 27/3/2024 06:14

Tender offer involves them selling a large quantity of assets over a few days, say $100m worth. This doesn't seem very efficient where assets are illiquid. It is very difficult to do this with unlisted assets. Even listed assets arent all that liquid in VN. It means that they don't get a very good price when they sell in any volume - it will be a lot less than the current so called market price.If they tried to reduce this problem by mainly selling the big-cap stocks then the remainder portfolio becomes concentrated toward small companies and unlisted.Better to do what they doing, gradually realizing assets and using cash inflows and repurchasing their own shares a few $100k each day, or as the opportunity arises. They could maybe start doing this a bit faster as the discount grows.

[hpcg] 26/3/2024 19:55

70% of the companies I own, trading and ITs, are buying back at the moment. They represent a transfer of value to patient holders above and beyond trading results. The ITs buying back are all at big discounts and unfairly so. Trusts with big similar discounts unable to buy back fairly priced. We have the Great British investing public (sarcasm) to thank as they cream themselves over 4% bank account interest. Tenders are a waste of time. Like dividends they cause a point in time support that immediate collapses post rights. If anything moving to 4 dividends a year, completely standard in the US, which still has a stock market, encourages longer term holding and less of a drop in momentum on each ex-date.

[31337 c0d3r] 26/3/2024 18:59

I think it's different rules for institutional traders.

[dpmcq] 26/3/2024 17:07

If the biggest shareholder reduced their exposure, surely as they sold and crossed each 1% (if they sold that many) then a RNS would need to be issued?

[31337 c0d3r] 26/3/2024 09:46

There should be a tender offer directly linked to the discount to NAV, then the company's second excuse would not apply since they have no problems calculating and publishing the NAV daily.

[aleman] 26/3/2024 09:38

It's interesting that the dividend being paid out is just under 2/3rds of the total being received from investments, the latter having risen from $32m to $36m since last year.

[dpmcq] 26/3/2024 09:36

I suspect the seller may be the largest share holder who voted in favour of resolution 14.

The board have laid out the reasons for not tendering -

With Resolution 14 – that the Company should cease to continue as currently constituted – the Company’s
second largest shareholder, representing approximately 23% of the votes cast at the AGM (11% of the total
issued share capital), voted in favour. I had met representatives of the shareholder prior to the AGM who
indicated that they wanted to see the Board introduce a performance conditional tender mechanism (“PCTM”).
I presented arguments why the Board believes that a PCTM would not be in the Company’s or the other
shareholders’ interests but the shareholder was not persuaded and voted against the Board’s
recommendation. In accordance with the AIC Code, the Board has reflected further and its views on a PCTM
are set out below.
The principle underlying a PCTM is that if the performance of an investment company falls below a set level
over a particular period, the Board will allow shareholders to tender a proportion of their shares at or close to
NAV. In the case of VOF (and, indeed, the vast majority of other investment companies) the shares are likely
to be trading at a wider discount than would be offered in the tender so, were this to happen, the tender would
likely be fully subscribed. The reasons that the Board does not think that a PCTM is appropriate for VOF can
be summarised as follows:
• The most relevant benchmark which is available in Vietnam is the VN Index. This is not representative
of all of the opportunities available for investment in Vietnam (for example 10 very large companies
make up 42% of the VN Index). Given the concentration of large companies, the index can show
volatility as a result of specific issues with one or more of its constituents.
• VOF’s portfolio is made up of unquoted investments as well as quoted shares. Consequently, even if
the VN Index was representative of all quoted companies in Vietnam, VOF’s performance would still
differ by virtue of the unquoted elements whose performance would not correlate with the VN Index.
As a result of these two factors, the Board does not generally benchmark the Investment Manager’s
performance against the VN Index.

[mancman1] 26/3/2024 09:30

The only experience I have of tenders is TFG. The result has been underwhelming. Still a massive discount. Much larger than VOF. There may of course be other reasons for that. The favoured route at present seems to be share buybacks. A lot of companies as well as Investment Trusts are doing it, some on a very large scale: BARC, SMT, ITV, RCP, HFEL, HSBA.

[aleman] 26/3/2024 09:08

Interesting defence of NOT introducing a tender mechanism in the results. I do not agree with it. Modest partial tenders have worked well elsewhere. Practice shows that just the threat of offering to buy a few % of shares somewhere near par is enough to dissuade some selling and encourage some buying such that discounts tend to start closing. The upwards momentum then also encourages the same and shares tend to rise. Investors seeing a rising share price then tend NOT to take up the tender and decide to hang on. It might not work everywhere but what harm can there be in offering small partial tender of, say, 5-10%. They are shrinking the investment base with their buy-backs, anyway, and that's not working. That's ok in the short term but can become a problem in the longer run.

On a more positive note for the status quo, a large investor is selling and NAV keeps rising. One would imagine the shares will fly when they finish selling or see the light and change their mind. Which idiotic fund decides to sell out when the underlying investments seem to be picking up strongly? I'd be furious if it was a fund I was invested in.

A better understanding of what is going on might encourage buyers in at this historically very large discount.

The VN index closed up over 1% again - at the day's high.

[dpmcq] 26/3/2024 08:57

So there is the answer on all the selling -
Over the first couple of months of 2024 the discount has come under further pressure as a significant institutional shareholder reduced its exposure to Vietnam following a review of its portfolio

[aleman] 22/3/2024 16:54

Looks to have broken to to me. I suppose it depends how you draw it.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[dpmcq] 22/3/2024 15:45

Larger volume today, also, if there were not sellers in the market then it would not be so easy for VOF to buy back 150000 shares today.
Until the sellers are done this will be held back. Once the balance tips it will hopefully move on at a pace.

[aleman] 22/3/2024 09:34

Since the last stockmarket high two years ago, GDP has grown about 10% or so and it seems to have picked up even more recently. The VN index reached a high of close to 1500, fell back to 1000, and is now just through a resistance point at 1280. Basically, the tailwind of very strong economic news seems to strongly suggest there will be a new assault on the 1500 high, barring any black swans.

Meanwhile, the VOF share price looks like its not read any economic news for 6 months and NAV is at an exceptional discount of 23%+. When will it decide to have a catch-up and return to an average discount of around 15% - or an even smaller discount typical of a bull market? The share price looks to already have probably broken it's downtrend. Maybe it just needs to be a bit clearer and then the discount will revert to something more normal. .

The stockmarket closed up again today, at +0.4%. The £ is down v $ by almost 0.5% and the $ looks to be marginally down versus the VND since the calculation for yesterday's NAV. With the shares at 461p one might guess the discount is closer to 24% with this information. It just feels way too high when the market has risen over 20% in the last 5 months.

[milesy] 22/3/2024 08:21

SP support line appears to go back at least a couple of years if not more, and triangle looks set for a break very soon

[mancman1] 22/3/2024 08:12

You're right. Under the radar.

[spangle93] 22/3/2024 08:11

or under bought :-)

I'm not sure there's relentless selling, just feels like not enough people are buying

[mancman1] 22/3/2024 07:57

NAV now £6.00. This looks way over-sold.