Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[amt] 29/4/2024 17:34

Thanks Aleman some interesting articles on that website

[aleman] 29/4/2024 14:38

Sorry. Here - it was less than 10% for a while in early 2021, spiking briefly to around 4%. (Something like 450p v 470p somewhere around January 21st.)

h ttp://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/T/I161/vinacapital-vietnam-opportunity-ord-$001

[amt] 29/4/2024 12:21

The market only rise .38% on Friday by the way so I think 19% is accurate

[amt] 29/4/2024 12:20

You didn't send the link to the discount history. I don't ever recall the discount being at 15% since I first invested 5 or 6 years ago. Some IT can trade at a premium but those are the ones invested in quality markets rather than a very risky one where transparency is poor like Vietnam.
If the marker gets Emerging market status that would help

[aleman] 29/4/2024 10:17

That's on Thursday's NAV, reported Friday. The market rose on Friday which should see a rise in NAV reportedtoday. (That's if they report it today. It's Labour Day holiday which lasts all week in Vietnam, I think, so Friday's likely rise might not get reported until next Monday.)

Discount history can be found here. -20% or more only tends to occur in bear markets. Nearer 15% is more typical and less than that in bull markets. Recent economic numbers suggest we should be moving more toward a bull market, the the Vietnam stock index has not quite conviced yet but locals have been buying in increasing volume as foreign institutions sell. This has been going on for months. The market should move up when foreigners start stop selling and/or start buying again.

Edit - wrong link see my next post.

[amt] 29/4/2024 09:57

After this mornings fall the discount at 467p is 19%.
That's at the low end of the discount over the last few years. I remember it being 22% and around 25% for a longtime

[aleman] 29/4/2024 08:14

It's been edging up again. With Friday's market rise and this morning's small dip in the share price, the discount might have gone over 20% again, rather more than the historic average of around 15%.



Economy booming again thanks to near record low interest rates?



Total revenue of the top five platforms, including Shopee, TikTok Shop, Lazada, Tiki and Sendo, reached more than VND71 trillion ($2.79 billion), an increase of 79% over the same period last year.

According to a recent report by Metric, more than 766 million items were sold on these platforms in the first quarter, up 83%...


...The report pointed out that Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City took the lead in revenue and volume, accounting for 70%. However, e-commerce is no longer the playground of sellers in major cities but is spreading to localities.

[amt] 29/4/2024 07:35

To be fair, VOF have closed the discount a few % points recently.

[aleman] 29/4/2024 07:25

VEIL outlook sounds cautiously positive, helped by low rating:

We anticipate mid teens profit growth for the Top-80 listed
companies in 2024, which currently trade at an attractive
2024F PER valuation of 9.6x. This compares favourably with
other regional peers such as Thailand (14.4x), Indonesia
(13.9x), Philippines (11.1x) and Malaysia (13.0x).

[aleman] 26/4/2024 16:46

Some of my investment trusts have seen a significant reduction in discounts to NAV in recent weeks. VOF are lagging a bit in this regard to the point it is starting to look a bit anomalous.

[amt] 25/4/2024 16:09

The market has been up and down over the last 5 or 6 years or so but is at about an average level now for that period. Over that period I would have expected earnings to have risen by well over 50% and the market to look very cheap on an historic pe ratio but from what we are told its more or less in line with normal historic levels. That's what frustrated me in the last few years of investment. Great news on growth, investment, companies moving their manufacturing there etc etc. Very little mention of major banking crises and massive frauds until recently and yet my investment didn't make that much progress despite good timing compared to other stock markets. Having said that VOF has done a great job at outperforming the market. All a bit odd and this is why I have become sceptical. I still hold about 25% of what I once had but will be out at the first sign of further banking problems. The problem is I can't find anywhere to invest at the moment with most stock markets on high valuations.

[aleman] 25/4/2024 12:07

Given growth has been beating forecasts, is being predicted at over 6% in 2024, and higher in 2025 if rates stay low, and that manufacturing, industrial output, exports, foreign direct investment, tourism and electricity output have all started the year at record levels for Q1, and FY2023 earnings reports are off to a good start, I suggest Vietnam is not being hindered much at all - though I suppose it could all have been even higher without the 2022 banking fraud crisis.

[amt] 25/4/2024 11:49

They need to make a film about this, you couldn't make it up

[aleman] 24/4/2024 15:40

Vietnamese average wage is up 26% from Q4/2019 to Q4/2023 according to this source.

[shaker45] 24/4/2024 13:10

Yes still a shortage in Hanoi but prices up 13% since 2019 while wages only up 6%. Clearly that trend line can't continue for ever

[dickbush] 24/4/2024 10:37

New apartments in Hanoi sell out despite rising prices - VnExpress International

[shaker45] 24/4/2024 09:38

Property values through s e asia are infected by the mega Chinese property crash (as Chinese are big buyers in other countries), and by over developnent, with demand reduced by over borrowed customers. Each of the properties I own there is worth less than pre covid and I don't anticipate early pick up. But vietnam will recover before other S. E. countries in my view

[amt] 24/4/2024 09:17

Yes property prices are high but interest is picking up.
I notice VOF seems to predict the following days market trend. Market up a lot today but VOF already moved up yesterday. The discount has closed a few % points.

[aleman] 24/4/2024 08:23

Big rises in Vietnam's stock index, though not closed yet. +2.5%. (Edit +2.4% close.)


Whilst HCMC property is only starting to pick up, Hanoi is starting to look a bit frothy already.

[amt] 23/4/2024 08:00

I wasn't aware there had been a property bust. I thought that prices remained very high but the number of transactions had fallen and new projects suspended causing turmoil in the market.

[aleman] 22/4/2024 19:18

Property bust is clearly over.

[aleman] 22/4/2024 12:42

VNI +1.3% today.

From the positive March update:

The earnings season has started, and many Vietnamese companies are in the throes of reporting their first quarter results, which should wrap up by the end of April. Early indications from our Research team show that show we may be in for a strong level of core earnings growth for the first quarter, driven by a robust recovery in cyclical sectors such as Aviation, Construction Materials, and Consumers. The Banking sector, which is a key pillar of economic activity and the largest constituent of the index, is showing a potential for approximately 10% year-on-year earnings growth, but potentially compressed by lower net interest margins after coming off a high base in 2023 when the domestic interest rate environment was much higher. As such, our Research team expect robust earnings growth over the next two years, ranging from 15% to 20% year-on-year for 2024 and 2025. The stock market’s valuations are creeping up, at a 11x forward price-to-earnings ratio and now slightly within one standard deviation from the historical average PER of 14x. That being said, the market is still at a 20% discount to regional peer averages, and with a prospect of robust compounding earnings growth over the next two years, the Vietnam market today presents an attractive opportunity for investors to consider allocating beyond India and Japan.

[amt] 19/4/2024 18:50

Spangle93.
I do still hold a position. I sold about 80% of my holdings. The point of the BB is to have a discussion. I have also been civil and polite in my responses.
I appreciate posts that contain useful information and discussion so that I can decide what to do with my remaining holding. There have been some great posts today. I have taken on board what people have written while challenging some of the posts.
I posted that I had read that corruption was endemic in Vietnam. So I was interested to hear what others had to say about it. Perhaps you could enlighten me if you have a view about it. It might be that corruption is not such a big deal so any info would be appreciated.

Certainly if what I had read was in isolation I would have formed the view that Vietnam is uninvestable at the moment and sold everything. However I see from what people have posted here that the situation might be OK and the markets will put this behind them quickiy and move onwards and upwards. So on that basis I will maintain an interest and may buy back in at some stage when things have settled down. However the events of the last week have cast a large shadow over my previous conviction that Vietnam was a safe place to invest with great opportunities ahead. Now I see it as high risk but with the potential to give good returns over the longterm.
I also conclude that this recent news explains some of the recent falls in the market as the extent of the issue has been revealed. At the same time the issue of corruption in general has probably been one of the reasons for the market being held back in the last couple of years which had baffled me before. The rumours surrounding the banking sector would not have helped and very few people would have known about the extent of the problem and certainly I have seen no evidence from my reading in general and from the posts on this board that the enormity of this issue was known to investors in general and therefore already discounted in share prices.
The replies to my posts have helped me reach this conclusion.