Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 06/2/2024 07:45

NAV jumped from 574p to 585p yesterday, taking the discount to over 22%, and the Vietnamese market was up again this morning. Discount has risen to over 22% - extreme by historic standards. Meanwhile VNH are flying on a discount of only 9%. It's time this one caught up. It looks to have broken its 2-year downtrend.


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[robow] 05/2/2024 10:53

ifShaker-if you read on down the email you get sent there is a place to click to remove the alerts

[aleman] 05/2/2024 09:14

VOF looks to be trying to break out of its 2-year downtrend today?

Another timely and useful indicator is electricity consumption. It's always growing in Vietnam but the rate of annual growth has been notably quicker in the last 5 months. There will be a little fluctuation with weather but it fits in well with GDP growth where the last 4 quarters have been on a strongly rising trend of 3.4%, 4.3%, 5.5% and 6.7%.

[aleman] 02/2/2024 11:45

Ho Chi Min City economy booming?



According to the people’s committee, retail sales of consumer goods and services surged by 24.4% year-on-year in January.


Property prices rose strongly in Hanoi in Q4 but not yet in HCMC.



The average primary prices of apartments in Hanoi have increased for 20 consecutive quarters amid scant supply while those in Ho Chi Minh City have cooled down, according to the latest Savills Vietnam report.

Primary asking prices of VND58 million ($2,363)/m2 net sellable area (NSA) in the fourth quarter of last year increased 7% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-on-year.

[tournesol] 01/2/2024 15:58

There must be. I don't get such emails. Check your a/c settings

[shaker45] 01/2/2024 11:41

Although I filter aleman and his flow of comments, irritatingly I still get emails notifying a new VOF post. Is there a way of stopping that?

[aleman] 01/2/2024 10:52

Vietnamese stocks up and £ down today could (should?) see NAV jump and VOF shares break out of the 1-year wedge and 2-year downtrend. Or will the discount just keep getting bigger?

[aleman] 01/2/2024 10:09

Vietnam Manufacturing PMI rose from 48.9 to 50.3 in January, with modest rises in import and export orders driving a slight rise in production. Lack of confidence in future prospects saw staffing flat and backlogs continue to build.

[aleman] 31/1/2024 10:04

Testing all three moving averages now. Would be 482p and a 15-month high if it had its historical average discount of 15%.

[aleman] 31/1/2024 08:59

NAV of 566p is highest since mid-November, I think. Shares are about 15p lower than then, though. If the shares had kept up with NAV, the downtrend would have broken.

Where will local investment money go this year? (Probably gold and stockmarket rather than cash as rates fall.)

[milesy] 29/1/2024 11:36

The chart suggests a breakout may be imminent. As to direction....

[aleman] 29/1/2024 11:33

Continuing large tourism increases see Vietnam expect normal levels in 2024 after 70% of pre-Covid in 2023.

[aleman] 25/1/2024 15:37

Nguyen Duc Lenh, deputy director of the State Bank of Vietnam’s HCMC office said the booming labor market, services and tourism in Asia and its political and economic stability helped increase remittances.





+84%

[aleman] 23/1/2024 11:17

Earnings growth in Q4 accelerated to 7.7% from Q3's 6.7%, and 5.2% in Q2.

Maufacturing output rose to an annual +7.6% in December from 6.3% last month, 4.5% in October and some negative numbers in the Spring.

Car registrations in December were about 20% up on last year and highest for 19 months.

Foreign direct investment was slightly up to a new record Of $23bn last year with the increase in H2 being slightly larger than the H1 rise.


The latest figures to come out in December seem to suggest Vietnam is booming.

[aleman] 22/1/2024 12:08

NAV 561p. Discount still just over 20% despite the recent slight rise in share price. It's not keeping up, but reversion to the mean occurs eventually.

[aleman] 19/1/2024 13:41

Looking forward to 2024, we expect that interest rates will remain stable and domestic investors will be likely to continue diverting money away from bank deposits (owing to much lower deposit rates compared to 12 months ago) and back into the stock and real estate markets. Earnings growth and valuations will be an area of focus for investors, given the flat earnings growth for 2023, while valuations remain very attractive and below historical averages. This should be supportive for the stock market. Specifically, our Research team expect the earnings growth of Vietnam’s stock market to recover from no growth in 2023 to 10-15% earnings growth in 2024, although our team’s forecast tends to be slightly more conservative than market consensus. Furthermore, public equity valuations are at a 30% discount to regional peers, and with a PEG ratio of 0.7x, Vietnam continues to offer valuation appeal while delivering reasonable growth.

In addition, it is widely anticipated that implementation of the stock exchange’s new KRX trading system in 2024 will help solve certain technical problems, which in turn could lead to Vietnam being upgraded from a Frontier Market to an Emerging
Market by the FTSE-Russell Index later in the year. Expectations of an imminent market upgrade tends to attract more foreign inflows and will push daily liquidity past the current ~USD800 million daily level.

The SBV has set a 15% credit growth target for 2024 and announced its allocation of full-year credit quotas to banks right at the beginning of the year rather than staggered quarterly as in the past. A key factor in the Real Estate sector’s recovery will be how fast regulatory approvals for projects are obtained and the effectiveness of new laws to give clarity on real estate regulations. Hopes are high that a special session of the National Assembly in January will help solve some of the issues that have impeded real estate development, and we will report further on this once we have more clarity.

[aleman] 19/1/2024 08:15

Here we go. Yesterday's NAV was up again, the stockmarket was up over 1% overnight, and Ho Chi Min townhouse prices just hit a record high. The economic recovery in Vienam seems to be gaining momentum and VOF could be in the sweet spot with its property exposure.



A breakout of that channel I posted yesterday looks more likely today.


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[riskvsreward] 18/1/2024 19:39

vnh used to be on a higher discount compared to both veil and vof. It has then offered several tender offer at close to NAV which have since led to its rerating to much lower discount. I first bought VNH because it was offering a bigger discount but sold out on its first tender offer and then when its share price went above its tender offer price. I think now vof is better value as vnh is too small and the fee is relatively more expensive to run, unless its fund manager outperform significantly in their stock selection.

Also to add when compare performance, one needs to account for the dividend payments by vof, but not by vnh and veil. This can add up on a longer time span, say 3 years,it can add up a difference of close to 10%.

[hpcg] 18/1/2024 19:24

31337 COD3R - potentially, but holding strength is not usually a losing strategy. There is quite a bit of overlap between the holdings of VEIL and VOF, but much less to for VNH. Nevertheless it is discount compression that has driven the recent out-performance of VNH, rather than portfolio performance (I have not done the exact calcs, so don't take my word for that).

[aleman] 18/1/2024 18:46

I'm mainly suggesting Vietnam is looking better poised than most economies, shares there are modestly valued by historical standards, and trust discounts tend to revert to the mean eventually. I'm not sure why VOF's discount has expanded but wonder if it's the higher property exposure since there was lots of bad property news last year but that seems to be abating thanks to rate cuts and some government interventions to try improve the situation. I don't think I've ever advised anyone to buy or sell anything.

I did consider putting VEIL in the comparison charts but it's quite similar to VOF and makes it look a bit cluttered. Anyone considering switching from VNH to VOF might equally consider switching to VEIL. Of course, VOF might be expected to underperform them both in capital perfomance because it pays out 1% dividend twice per year, but I'd still expect discounts to revert to the mean over a period of time but while not suggesting when. It could be a year, or less, or more. :-)

[31337 c0d3r] 18/1/2024 18:33

Would you suggest I sell my VNH holding and buy more VOF?

Are you sure the VNH price won't continue outperforming VOF?

[aleman] 18/1/2024 17:53

5, 3, 2, 1 years


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[aleman] 18/1/2024 17:34

I thought I'd run a little channel analysis on this one, as I occasionally do, despite being a buy and hold investor. It's never a prediction so much as an indicator of where you might expect some "action" - and that can be down as well as up. The arrows are not targets but have a different significance - the lower is where a historical average 15% discount on current NAV would be, and the higher is an arbitrary 10% discount would be, if it fell almost into line with VNH, but also similar to typical historic lows in its range, too. It had a brief spike under 5% at the start of 2021. You can put an imaginary arrow won that if you like. :-)


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The trouble at the moment seems to be investors not choosing a lower idcount as Vietnam is picking up but choosing a higher discount as the UK seems to be doing worse! Som eof the differential with VNH coul dbe the higher property exposure with VOF, but there are early signs that slightly lower interest rates are beginning to help property so that might not be justifiable any longer.

[hpcg] 18/1/2024 16:01

Aleman - A few years ago VNH used to be on a larger discount then was put on the bargain share portfolio of Simon Thompson of Investors' Chronicle. I imagine it has a more significant PI following than the other instruments, but that is a guess. He may also promote it in their additional paid for product called Alpha, but as I don't subscribe I couldn't tell you. The smart thing for VNH holders would be to arbitrage the discount IMO.

Chart wise higher lows are being printed, but that overhead resistance at approx 475 needs to break.