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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan African Resources Plc | LSE:PAF | London | Ordinary Share | GB0004300496 | ORD 1P |
| Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.30 | -3.05% | 41.35 | 39,518,896 | 16:35:29 |
| Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.20 | 41.25 | 42.35 | 39.75 | 42.10 | |
| Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Ores | USD 373.8M | USD 79.38M | USD 0.0414 | 9.95 | 817.39M |
| Last Trade Time | Trade Type | Trade Size | Trade Price | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:07:16 | O | 628,000 | 41.10 | GBX |
| Date | Time | Source | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/3/2025 | 10:44 | ALNC |  IN BRIEF: Tembo sells GBP23 million stake in Pan African Resources |
| 19/3/2025 | 07:00 | UK RNS | Berenberg Result of placing in Pan African Resources PLC |
| 18/3/2025 | 16:40 | UK RNS | Berenberg Secondary placing in Pan African Resources PLC |
| 05/3/2025 | 08:11 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Holding(s) in Company |
| 12/2/2025 | 14:58 | ALNC | IN THE KNOW: Pan African Resources ratings mixed after interim results |
| 12/2/2025 | 10:19 | ALNC | Pan African Resources interim profit slightly down as production falls |
| 12/2/2025 | 07:00 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Unaudited Interim Financial Results for the six.. |
| 10/2/2025 | 10:43 | ALNC | Pan African Resources shares fall amid lower earnings expectations |
| 10/2/2025 | 09:30 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Group Trading Statement for the six months.. |
| 03/2/2025 | 16:20 | ALNC | IN THE KNOW: Berenberg upbeat on Pan African Resources' Mogale plant |
Pan African Resources (PAF) Share Charts1 Year Pan African Resources Chart |
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1 Month Pan African Resources Chart |
Intraday Pan African Resources Chart |
| Date | Time | Title | Posts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/3/2025 | 17:04 | Pan African Resources for 2006 (PAF) Moderated | 13,156 |
| 19/3/2025 | 11:00 | Pan African Resources a sleeping giant | 2,149 |
| 23/2/2025 | 18:15 | Pan African Resources - Ripe for Takeover ? | 269 |
| 12/2/2025 | 16:56 | tuscan | - |
| 19/8/2024 | 09:35 | tuscan | - |
| Trade Time | Trade Price | Trade Size | Trade Value | Trade Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:15:00 | 41.10 | 628,000 | 258,108.00 | O |
| 17:15:00 | 41.05 | 505,001 | 207,302.91 | O |
| 17:07:17 | 41.35 | 15,000 | 6,202.50 | O |
| 16:44:23 | 41.05 | 235,811 | 96,800.42 | O |
| 16:35:29 | 41.35 | 1,035,442 | 428,155.27 | UT |
| Top Posts |
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Posted at 19/3/2025 08:20 by Pan African Resources Daily Update Pan African Resources Plc is listed in the Gold Ores sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker PAF. The last closing price for Pan African Resources was 42.65p.Pan African Resources currently has 1,916,503,988 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Pan African Resources is £789,599,643. Pan African Resources has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 9.95. This morning PAF shares opened at 42.10p |
Posted at 18/2/2025 13:31 by stonedyou LBMA’s Gold Shortage Exposed: Spreads Widen as Paper Market CrumblesDate 17 Feb 2025 22:54 "But with the U.S. increasingly pulling physical supply off the market, the paper-based system is facing mounting pressure. If just a small amount of paper metal holders start demanding physical delivery, the entire structure of the paper markets will collapse" Unprecedented Spreads Between Spot and Futures Prices in Gold and Silver Over the past few weeks, financial markets have experienced an unprecedented widening of spreads between spot and futures prices for both gold and silver. Traditionally narrow, these spreads have expanded to as much as USD $60 for gold and over USD $1 for silver. This significant discrepancy has created unique arbitrage opportunities, prompting substantial flows of physical metals from London to New York, as traders capitalize on lower spot prices in London and higher futures prices in New York. As of the time of writing, the spread has narrowed slightly, with a USD 18.615 difference (0.65%) between spot gold (“GOLD") and gold futures (“GC1!"). For silver, the spread stands at USD 0.745, equivalent to 2.27%. Despite clear arbitrage potential, these spreads have not normalized as quickly as would be anticipated by an efficient market, suggesting underlying market failures beyond simple arbitrage opportunities. LBMA Bullion Bank Cartel The has historically controlled the London OTC spot price for gold, operating within a system that prioritizes the interests of bullion banks over the actual physical gold and silver market. Opacity is the name of the game here. The LBMA lacks transparency, providing no public access to order book volumes or trading data. As a result, trading practices remain hidden from scrutiny. In essence, so-called spot gold is treated more like a currency, with little to no physical metal backing. Notably, the LBMA itself holds no gold reserves, instead relying on its member banks to maintain stockpiles. BullionStar has been a where we repeatedly have been highlighting the lack of transparency, misleading data, and prioritization of paper trading over physical bullion. The LBMA has for a long time creating a false sense of security about available metals. Furthermore, LBMA enables the proliferation of unallocated synthetic paper gold, allowing bullion banks to trade so-called gold and silver without actual physical backing, which distorts true price discovery. Controlled by bullion banks, the LBMA prioritizes their interests over individual savers and physical metal investors, favoring financial institutions while undermining the integrity of the bullion market. Paper Metal vs. Physical Metal As many are aware, there is a significant disconnect between paper and physical gold and silver markets. Estimates suggest that for every ounce of physical metal, between 100 and 600 times more paper gold and silver are traded. from 2021 estimate paper silver to physical silver at 243:1. A analysis even places this ratio at 408:1, highlighting the sheer scale of this imbalance. For years, the LBMA and COMEX have maintained the illusion that paper metal could be redeemed for physical metal. But with the U.S. increasingly pulling physical supply off the market, the paper-based system is facing mounting pressure. If just a small amount of paper metal holders start demanding physical delivery, the entire structure of the paper markets will collapse. LBMA Collusion Coming to an End The LBMA has historically to help manage any issues. For gold liquidity, swaps and leasing arrangements have been used to prevent vault runs. However, with the U.S. institutions now prioritizing gold repatriation and hoarding over supporting international markets, the LBMA has lost a key backstop. This shift leaves LBMA bullion banks more vulnerable to physical shortages, increasing counterparty risk and undermining confidence in unallocated gold. Without U.S. support, bullion banks may resort to delaying settlements, widening spreads, or restricting redemptions—fu LBMA is Simply Out of Gold London’s gold clearing banks—JP Morgan, HSBC, UBS, and ICBC Standard—have depleted their available physical gold for delivery and are now heavily relying on gold lending at the Bank of England. However, these borrowing avenues also appear exhausted. As a result, these banks face a liquidity crunch in their loco London gold holdings, increasing counterparty risk among LBMA bullion banks that trade unallocated “gold credit.” The inability to access sufficient physical gold has led to paper gold claims trading at a discount, reflecting the growing difficulty in converting them into actual metal. “Gold is Heavy" & Shortage of “Guys with Vans" & “Ocean of Silver" The LBMA has, as they always do, downplayed these developments, attributing the high spread and delivery delays to potential new tariffs rather than to any structural issues or shortages. They’ve stated that the 4-8 weeks lag times for gold deliveries fron London vaults are due to logistical challenges. LBMA appears to recently have discovered that gold is heavy and that it needs “guys with vans" i.e. manpower and transportation resources to move gold. Perhaps they never realised before that gold was heavy as the vaults were empty anyway? But there’s certainly no lack of supply if you are to trust the LBMA (). Regarding silver, the LBMA claims there’s an with no shortage whatsoever. However, the reality on the ground tells a different story. This is all happening against a backdrop of highly elevated and sustained demand by Eastern countries including China, India and Eastern European countries which have quietly been vaccuming up all physical gold available yet stopping short of causing acute shortages. Convicted Gold Manipulators Run LBMA The LBMA positions itself as the global authority on precious metals, but its actions suggest it primarily serves the interests of its bullion bank members. While it claims to promote transparency, its reporting is delayed, aggregated, and carefully controlled—off Far from being an impartial regulator, the LBMA is dominated by major bullion banks like JP Morgan, which, despite being a continues to hold influence. The appointment of JP Morgan’s former head of precious metals, Michael Nowak, to the LBMA board while he was under investigation for market rigging exemplifies the association’s deep-rooted conflicts of interest. Rather than upholding integrity, the LBMA appears to function as a protective shield for the very institutions that distort and manipulate the gold market. BullionStar’s Perspective on Physical vs. Paper Markets At BullionStar, we observe that most market participants for now continue to base their pricing on spot prices, albeit with surcharges in some cases. If the LBMA is exposed as being out of metal and ultimately defaults – something we are already witnessing in a minor form through delivery lags – we anticipate that price discovery will shift from London spot to the futures market, provided that COMEX can facilitate actual physical deliveries rather than just warehouse receipts. This remains uncertain. COMEX is not designed for large-scale physical withdrawals, as . Whether unencumbered physical metal can be extracted from COMEX in significant quantities is uncertain. COMEX Gold Futures 99.96% of COMEX gold contracts are cash settled As market participants come to realize that these markets are largely paper-based or semi-paper-based with minimal physical backing, there could be a scramble to secure physical metal. If that happens, the price of gold and silver would likely be determined by true physical markets. In such a scenario, it is reasonable to expect that the equilibrium price would be multiple times higher, given the preposterous ratio of paper metals to physical metals. The trend is clear. Physical liquidity of real gold and silver is rapidly draining from London and the LBMA. As a result, Singapore, being the world’s , is emerging as a leading hub for wealthy savers and investors to hold their physical bullion holdings. Price Discovery Shifting from Paper to Physical Markets With London’s vaults running dry and COMEX struggling to fulfill physical deliveries, the question arises: who will step in to fill the void? The answer is that a major physical gold exchange has already emerged, building substantial infrastructure and trading volumes over the past decade – the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). In 2024 alone, the SGE saw an impressive 67.25% of traded gold, or 1,455 metric tons, delivered. However, since access to the SGE is largely restricted for non-Chinese entities, a significant gap remains for a physical gold market in the West. This shift in price discovery underscores the urgent need for more physically settled markets outside of China. |
Posted at 14/1/2025 16:24 by stonedyou If PAF’s average year one price to normalised EPS ratio of 8.2x for the period FY10–24is applied to our normalised earnings forecasts, it implies a share price for PAF of 45.71p in FY25 followed by one of 48.44p in FY26. Stated alternatively, PAF’s current share price of 31.95p, at prevailing foreign exchange rates, appears to be discounting FY25 and/or FY26 normalised HEPS of 4.95c per share (cf our forecasts of 7.09c and 7.51c, respectively). Relative peer group valuation In the meantime, it may be seen that PAF remains cheap relative to its London- and South African-listed gold mining peers on 83% of comparable common valuation measures (29 out of 36 individual measures in the table below) if Edison forecasts are used or 91% of valuation measures (32 out of 36 individual measures) if consensus forecasts are used. |
Posted at 14/1/2025 16:11 by stonedyou Alternatively, applying PAF’s peer average year one P/E ratio of 19.8x to ournormalised HEPS forecast of 7.09c per share for FY25 implies a share price for the company of 110.70p at prevailing foreign exchange rates – albeit this calculates to 58.47p if Sibanye is excluded from the peer group. Applying its peer average year two P/E ratio of 8.4x to our normalised HEPS forecast of 7.51c per share for FY26 implies a share price of 49.52p. |
Posted at 10/12/2024 16:18 by stonedyou Valuation: Still cheap compared to history and peersWe have pared back our core (absolute) valuation of PAF to its pre-May level of 40.93c per share (31.82p) to reflect both the recent, slightly uncharacteristic ‘above trend’ strength of the rand against both the US dollar and sterling and slightly sticky cost inflation in H224. However, this valuation rises by a further 22.30–27.32c if other assets (eg Egoli and the Soweto cluster) are taken into account. Alternatively, if PAF’s historical average price to normalised HEPS ratio of 8.2x for the period FY10–24 is applied to our FY25 and FY26 forecasts, it implies a value of 44.70p in FY25, followed by 41.17p in FY26. As such, PAF’s current share price of 33.65p could be interpreted as discounting normalised HEPS rising to only 5.48c per share in FY25 and/or FY26 (cf our forecasts of 7.28c and 6.71c, respectively). In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its principal London- and South African-listed gold mining peers on at least 80% of commonly used valuation measures, regardless of whether they are based on Edison or consensus forecasts. Performing a relative valuation analysis, its peers imply a comparable valuation for PAF of 61.03p based on our year one EPS estimate and 43.33p based on our year two EPS estimate. Finally, we calculate that PAF is trading at an enterprise value of just US$23.33 per resource ounce of gold. |
Posted at 10/12/2024 11:47 by stonedyou Source: Edison Investment Research, LSEG Data & Analytics. Note: Consensus and peers priced at 14 November 2024.Alternatively, applying PAF’s peer average year one P/E ratio of 19.8x to our normalised HEPS forecast of 7.09c per share for FY25 implies a share price for the company of 110.70p at prevailing foreign exchange rates – albeit this calculates to 58.47p if Sibanye is excluded from the peer group. Applying its peer average year two P/E ratio of 8.4x to our normalised HEPS forecast of 7.51c per share for FY26 implies a share price of 49.52p. |
Posted at 10/12/2024 08:32 by stonedyou Valuation: Steady but inclined upwardsOur overall valuation of Pan African has risen by 3.1% in the aftermath of the TCMG acquisition, to 42.21c per share (33.32p), albeit this reflects the recent ‘above trend’ strength of the rand against both the US dollar and sterling, as much as anything else. However, this valuation rises by a further 22.42–27.44c (17.70–21.66p) if other assets, such as Egoli and the Soweto cluster, are taken into account. It also reflects Edison’s relatively conservative gold price assumptions (US$2,124/oz nominal on average for the period CY25–30). At the current gold price, all other things being equal, our valuation almost doubles to 83.52c (65.92p). Alternatively, if PAF’s historical average price to normalised HEPS ratio of 8.2x for the period FY10–24 is applied to our FY25 and FY26 forecasts, it implies a value of 45.71p in FY25, followed by 48.44p in FY26. As such, PAF’s current share price of 31.95p could be interpreted as discounting normalised HEPS rising to only 4.95c per share in FY25 and/or FY26 (cf 5.27c ‘adjusted̵ |
Posted at 25/10/2024 13:29 by stonedyou Valuation: Still cheap compared to history and peersWe have pared back our core (absolute) valuation of PAF to its pre-May level of 40.93c per share (31.82p) to reflect both the recent, slightly uncharacteristic ‘above trend’ strength of the rand against both the US dollar and sterling and slightly sticky cost inflation in H224. However, this valuation rises by a further 22.30–27.32c if other assets (eg Egoli and the Soweto cluster) are taken into account. Alternatively, if PAF’s historical average price to normalised HEPS ratio of 8.2x for the period FY10–24 is applied to our FY25 and FY26 forecasts, it implies a value of 44.70p in FY25, followed by 41.17p in FY26. As such, PAF’s current share price of 33.65p could be interpreted as discounting normalised HEPS rising to only 5.48c per share in FY25 and/or FY26 (cf our forecasts of 7.28c and 6.71c, respectively). In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its principal London- and South African-listed gold mining peers on at least 80% of commonly used valuation measures, regardless of whether they are based on Edison or consensus forecasts. Performing a relative valuation analysis, its peers imply a comparable valuation for PAF of 61.03p based on our year one EPS estimate and 43.33p based on our year two EPS estimate. Finally, we calculate that PAF is trading at an enterprise value of just US$23.33 per resource ounce of gold. |
Posted at 24/9/2024 12:28 by stonedyou Valuation: Nosing in towards 40pGiven our revised forecasts, our core (absolute) valuation of Pan African has increased by a material 16.8% to 48.08c/share (38.30p), based on projects either sanctioned or already in production. This valuation rises by a further 22.17–27.19c if other assets (eg Egoli and the Soweto cluster) are also taken into account. Alternatively, if PAF’s historical average price to normalised headline earnings per share (HEPS) ratio of 8.4x in the period FY10–23 is applied to our FY24 and FY25 forecasts, it implies a value of 38.30p in FY24, followed by 41.94p in FY25. As such, PAF’s current share price of 26.70p could be interpreted as discounting normalised HEPS falling to 4.00c per share (cf our forecasts of 5.73c/share for FY24 and 6.28c/share for FY25), which is barely above FY23’s level. In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its principal London- and South African-listed gold mining peers on at least 66% of commonly used valuation measures regardless of whether Edison or consensus forecasts are used. Performing a relative valuation analysis, its peers imply a comparable valuation for PAF of 63.21p based on our year one EPS estimate and one of 48.06p based on our year two EPS estimate. Separately, we estimate that PAF has the 18th highest dividend yield of the 62 precious metals mining companies expected to pay dividends to shareholders in the next 12 months (globally). Finally, we calculate that it is trading at an enterprise value that equates to just US$17.39 per resource ounce of gold. |
Posted at 13/9/2024 13:23 by stonedyou Pan African Resources PLC (OTCQX:PAFRF) Q4 2024 Results Conference Call September 11, 2024 5:00 AM ETCompany Participants Cobus Loots - Chief Executive Officer Deon Louw - Financial Director Hethen Hira - Investor Relations Conference Call Participants Cody Hayden - Berenberg Cobus Loots Good morning to all of you, and a warm welcome to our 2024 Final Results Presentation. Thank you very much for taking time of your schedules to join us today. We will keep the presentation fairly brief with an opportunity for questions afterwards. Joining me and presenting today will be Deon Louw, our Financial Director. You're welcome to refer to our SENS or in Ace announcement and to the supplementary information available on the Pan African website, should you require detail not dealt with in today's presentation. Please note the disclaimers and information on forward-looking statements on Slide 2 and Slide 3. Pan Africanstrategy is to position ourselves as a safe and sustainable, high-margin and long-life gold producer. I believe the last year, again, demonstrated Pan African's resilience our ability to generate attractive returns on our assets to grow in a responsible and value-accretive manner and to continue to pay a sector-leading dividend to our shareholders. In terms of dividends, we have paid almost $200 million to shareholders in the last 10 years. Today also marks the 10th instance that I am presenting the year-end results as Pan African CEO. Reflecting on the last decade, it wouldbe fair to say, the group, on occasion experienced tumultuous times. We don't get everything right all of the time. I think that is not possible in business, and certainly not in mining. What is, however critical, is to demonstrate tangible value creation for all stakeholders over the long term. And I believe Pan African can be proud of our record in this regard. Today, we have the added tailwind of a gold price pretty much at record highs in U.S. dollar and rand terms and also a generally bullish view in the market on the metal short- and medium-term prospects. Let me assureyou that the gold price windfall will not be wasted on Pan African. We are using the opportunity to invest into our assets for the long term to deliver on production growth that will benefit the group for many years to come and to continue to provide excellent returns for our shareholders. We are incredibly excited about our prospects for the next years, and I look forward to sharing some thoughts and further detail on many of our initiatives and plans in the following slides. On slide number 4, an overview of the presentation. We'll start with Pan-African Health and Safety performance, which is obviously critical in our business, and then provide an overview of the group and our operating environment, some key features from the past year, including our new exciting operation at MTR and detail on asset performance as well as our cost and capital outlook. We will then spend a couple of minutes on ESG before allowing Dion the opportunity to highlight elements of the group's financial performance for the 2024 financial year. The presentation will then conclude by outlining focus areas for the year ahead. If we then proceed to Slide number 6, our safety performance and our journey to Zero Harm. We continue to focus on safety initiatives and interventions and on maintaining an industry-leading record. We can also celebrate a number of safety milestones achieved during the last year. During our interim results, we report on the tragic fatal accident at Elikhulu earlier in the year. We are doing our utmost to ensure that the group has a safe year ahead. Slide number 8, a high-level representation of our unique portfolio of surface re-mining and underground assets. The addition of MTR or Elikhulu Mintails means that we now have three large mining complexes in South Africa, surface operations, reduce unit costs and turn legacy liabilities into profits, whilst the underground provides long life of mines, solid returns on investment as a result of a large sunk capital base and also attractive optionality, which we are bringing to account in a circumspect and considered manner, as demonstrated by our progress on the Evander underground. If there is one takeaway from this slide, is that we are growing profitable production very materially in the years ahead. We expect to be well north of 200,000 ounces of annual production in 2025 with MTR coming online. Pan African might not be the biggest gold miner, but -- and that is also opportunity. None of the majors can grow their production by 25% or more in a short space of time. This is what we will do in the next year. Slide 9, the coming year will also see us moving towards an even more balanced portfolio of low-cost and stable surface re-mining and high-grade, long-life underground assets. This asset mix should also reduce our group all-in sustaining cost profile, with both Elikhulu and Mintails, producing at an all-in sustaining cost of approximately $1,000 per ounce and the BTRP even lower. Slide 10, a bit more detail on our current asset mix. I think what is very helpful is that all of our assets now have extended lives, with the shortest life being a BTRP at 7 years, which is still quite a while. If we compare ourselves with the rest of the sector, many producers are running out of life on their assets or have to spend massive capital for future production, not the case for Pan African. We do not have to go and acquire more assets to maintain and grow production. Slide 12, our operating environment. We continuously seek ways of making our business less susceptible to adverse external impacts in South Africa. Some matters to highlight in terms of our operating environment over the year include the following: I think before the fact, there was significant concern around the South African general elections, which were held in May this year. Following the free and fair elections and the successful formation of a government of National Unity, we are definitely seeing some green shoots, so to speak, and quite a bit of optimism in terms of the South African economy. South Africa enjoyed strong foreign investment inflows over the last months. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange saw an over 5% uptick over the last 2 months,and SO bonds have also surged. The rand has been the best performer amongst the group of leading emerging market currencies against the U.S. dollar over the last month. And this trend can improve further, should we see positive reforms coming from government. Pan African is reducing our reliance on Eskom, South African electricity utility. So, more information on this in the ESG section of this presentation. Also, positively, South Africa has now experienced more than 100 days without any load shedding. In terms of title, Pan African assets have long lives with extended mining rights. The Evander's complex rights are valid until 2038 and those at Barberton until 2051. MTR's new auto-mining right is currently valid until 2029, we will obviously seek extension in due course. As far as stakeholder interaction is concerned, we invest heavily in our social license to operate. Pan African mines make a meaningful positive impact in the areas where we operate. We also announced a 5-year wage deal at Barberton this year, which will provide stability and the ability to further optimize this operation whilst limiting cost increases. Finally, from a security perspective, our efforts to safeguard our people and operations and minimize the impact of illegal mining and criminality are ongoing. I'm pleased to report that the people of [indiscernible] and Krugersdorp can already see a marked improvement in their area since we started our work at MTR. To conclude on this slide, Pan African's track record demonstrates that we can operate and grow in South Africa and do so very successfully. If we then proceed to key production costs and financial features from the year past on Slide 14, some of the highlights from 2024 include the following: we reported an improvement in overall safety rates. We produced just over 186,000 ounces of gold, an increase of more than 6% when compared with the previous year. Our team did well in terms of managing costs with a globally competitive all-in sustaining cost for the group. We are reporting an increase in profits of more than 30% with very manageable net debt levels and healthy liquidity. It is worth our noting that the U.S. dollar gold price only really started surging late in the financial year, and therefore, the full impact of the higher price should only come through in the year ahead. Gold in U.S. dollar terms is currently at approximately $2,500 per ounce versus the circa $2,080 we received in the financial year. And despite all the growth and capital reinvestment, we are able to maintain our sector-leading dividend to shareholders. Slide 15 should be an interesting one for our investors, demonstrating how nicely we have expanded margins in recent years, and this excludes any contribution from MTR. We believe that if we deliver our share price should take care of itself, and the recent while has reaffirmed this view. That being said, I think we are still in a strong position to benefit from the current gold price environment and from our own growth plans in the time ahead. If we then move on to more detail on the performance per operation, starting with Elikhulu on Slide 17. This really is a flagship asset for the group, 9 years of production remaining, producing at just over $1,000 per ounce. Our team managed to increase both production tonnes and recoveries through the mining of the Lazy Bracken tailings facility, with gold production increasing by some 9%. We look forward to another year of more than 50,000 ounces of production and clearly excellent cash flow generation and the current gold price environment. The asset generated $57 million of EBITDA in the last year. We are currently completing Phase 3 and Phase 4 of the Kinross tailings facility, the final expansion. These will be delivered on budget and on schedule in the next months. As we've said before, we are also carrying all of the learnings on building and operating Elikhulu over to MTR as we ramp up operations there. Slide number 18, BTRP, another sterling performance from our first gold tailings retreatment plant commissioned in 2013 and the lowest cost producer in the group. The BTRP management team also again deserves special mention, managing to reduce unit costs of production. I think very exciting news for the BTRP is that we have now managed to extend the life of this operation from surface re-mining only to 7 years. We will be reprocessing the Bramber tailings storage facility and other sources, again. The capital requirements for this new initiative is also relatively modest, around ZAR100 million or some $5 million for a new pump station and then a new tailing storage facility for all of the Barberton complex in due course. So, the bottom line, BTRP will continue to form an integral part of Pan African tailings retreatment story for many more years, and also allow us to develop Royal Sheba at a much slower pace. NTR on Slide number 19. Large-scale construction on site is now nearing completion, and we will be pouring first gold at this operation on the 3rd of October. Yes, the 3rd of October of this year, the project will be delivered under budget and ahead of schedule, which you will appreciate is not a common in the mining industry. We have built all of the plant and infrastructure in a little over 14 months, a testament to Pan African's ability to secure, conceptualize, fund and then execute world-class mining projects. In the current gold price environment, the payback on this $135 million initial investment should be under 3 years with a project life of more than 20 years, when we include the Soweto reserves. In terms of the Mogale cluster metals, the life is 13 years with total gold recovered more than 600,000 ounces. Additionally, the Soweto cluster consists of more than 130 million tonnes of tailings currently containing a mineral reserve of more than 0.5 million ounces of recoverable gold. This mineral reserve will extend MTR's life from 13 years to 21 years. Total gold recovered will increase to 1.1 million ounces. It's also important to note that we believe that we have enough gold reserves at the Soweto cluster to sustain a stand-alone operation, treating 1 million tonnes per month over an approximate 10-year life of mine. On Slide number 20, a picture of construction progress on site. And you can see that we are currently firmly on track in terms of the project execution time lines. Slide 21. We cannot say enough about the socioeconomic and environmental benefits of this project. Concurrent rehabilitation is in progress. We are uplifting local communities, providing much-needed economic and employment opportunities, and working with law enforcement to eradicate illegal mining. There were some skeptics on Mintails' MTR when we announced our intention to proceed with the project. I'm so pleased and we are about to prove them wrong. Slide 22. I think it's fair to say that Pan African has a record second to none, in terms of construction and operation of tailings retreatment projects. These long-life assets now form the cornerstone of our business. And I believe we have further room to grow in this space, which should be very attractive for our investors. Slide 23, the Evander underground team delivered in line with expectations, producing some 38,000 ounces for the year at an all-in sustaining cost of just over $1,300 per ounce. Now the delay in commissioning of the sub-vertical shaft for wasting has impacted us somewhat. This project will now be completed by the end of this month. We are pretty much been doubling our wasting capacity, which should allow us to play a bit of catch-up in the months ahead. I really believe this shaft with a western capacity of 40,000 tonnes per month will be a game changer for Evander. No more cumbersome conveyors, lower costs with a higher mine core factor. If we then proceed to Slide 24, dealing with Fairview, our flagship underground operation at the Barberton Mines complex. At Fairview mine, the Rossiter ore body enhanced production during the reporting period. Exploration drilling has identified a second high-grade structure, which intersects the Rossiter ore body and doubled the mineralized with, thereby increasing the volumes that can be extracted. This ore body average over 30 grams per tonne throughout the year. Additionally, downdip development at the MRC ore body on a deeper level at Fairview progressed according to plan, with top access to the high-grade 261 platform completed during May 2024. This platform grade averages 27 grams per tonne. The downdip development is being extended deeper towards a lower access of 261 as well as to the 262 platform, where exploration drilling successfully intersected the down-drop extension of the MRC. Rehabilitation of the existing ramp infrastructure from 38 level downwards is progressing according to schedule. This decline will be used to transport personnel and material to the working phases on the 3-shaft section and will further alleviate logistic pressures on 3-shaft, which will then mainly be used for rock wasting and improving logistics. Continuous operations at Fairview implemented in February 2023 resulted in a significant improvement in terms of tonnage output of tonnes increasing by 11% year-on-year from underground. Additionally, the processed grade improved from 11.7 grams to over 12 grams per tonne, a circa 4% increase year-on-year. The all-in sustaining costs for Fairview also improved from $1,546 in FY '23 to $1,434 mainly as a result of the 14% increase in gold production. The smaller underground operation at Barberton on Slide 25. At Sheba, development towards additional mineral reserve blocks on both the high-grade MRC and ZK ore bodies are progressing according to plan, with production improvements noted during the year. Development in the Sheba Fault project, Western Cross ore body is ongoing with initial mineralized intersection being exposed on a crosscut. This project is planned to eventually supplement feed sources to the BTRP plant, as well as to offsetting the treatment of low-grade surface sources at the Consort and Sheba plants. The continuous operating cycle at an even greater impact at Sheba Mine was tuned increasing by 18% year-on-year. The processed grade also improved from 4.9 grams per tonne to over 5 grams per tonne. A circa 6% increase year-over-year. In terms of Consort, following some due technical and mining difficulties, the group replaced the contract miner in order to improve production at the mine. The rehabilitation of the PC Shaft has been completed and now enables the contractor to recommence mining on the high-grade 41 to 45 level mining sections. Additional development is ongoing on the MMR shaft and the PC shaft to access reserve blocks, which will give us access to more ground to mine. On Slide number 27, section dealing with all-in sustaining cost. Almost 85% of our portfolio produced an all-in sustaining cost of $1,170 per ounce. Now Slide 28 illustrates that our cost performance continues to be very much in line and better than the average for a global sector, with most producers having experienced significant cost pressures in the last couple of years. Despite inflation, we should be able to maintain an all-in sustaining cost at between $1,350 and $1,400 per ounce in the coming financial year in U.S. dollar terms. On Slide number 30, group capital projects. We continue to invest into our assets and into growth with most of MTR's comfort capital now spent. For Evander, we expect CapEx to reduce in the next year as most of the large capital for '24 to '26 levels would have been spent. The accrued CapEx will also be fair addition in the year ahead of profiting spend fairly stable. ESG, Slide 32. I'm very proud of our achievements on this front, particularly on progress with renewable energy, water treatment and social projects. We really do make a positive difference where we operate. To elaborate further on our renewable energy road map on Slide number 33. We've completed construction of our Barberton solar facility, and we are currently ramping up generation from this plant, which should be fully ramped up in the next month. We further anticipate first power from our 40-megawatt 30-ag power purchase agreement during 2026. You can also expect other announcements on renewables from Pan African in the months ahead. Hopefully, we can add even more capacity. In terms of our student needs exploration venture, we are continuing activities on a scale-back basis. We are hoping that the wording parties can come to a resolution soon. I will now hand over to Deon, who will provide an overview of the financial results for the year. Deon Louw Thank you, Cobus. From Slide 36, you will notice the positive impact of the increased gold production and gold price of a full financial year's revenue, which increased by 17% to $374 million relative to the prior financial year. Production costs were well contained with all-in sustaining cost increases by only 3.4% in dollar terms, assisted by the average random exchange rate depreciation of 5.3% year-on-year. The tailwinds of an increasing U.S. dollar gold price and depreciating rand during the year delivered EBITDA by 23% to $141 million relative to the prior year. Attributable earnings increased by 30% to $79 million and earnings per share commensurately as no new shares were issued in the year. The 9% decline in operating cash flow to $91 million is due to an increase in income tax and royalties paid of $8 million and finance costs of $5 million. It also needs to be born in mind that the prior U.S. cash flows were also boosted by the upfront receipt of ZAR400 million, approximately $22 million from the sophistic gold forward sale transaction. We spent ZAR166 million in capital during the year, the bulk of it on the MTR project, and grew $71 million on our debt facilities, resulting in a predictable increase in net debt by $84 million to $106 million. Slide 37 demonstrates the extent to the group's available single debt facilities and funding of the MTR project. As mentioned in the past, our funding approach to projects of Elikhulu and MTR [indiscernible] in nature, is to fully fund the projects upfront capital with the debt redemption profile opted to its cash flow profile, leaving the rest of the group's cash flows largely unencumbered for other capital expenditure programs and returning cash to shareholders. Our core facilities comprised the RCF of $54 million and GBF of $8 million. The bar chart on the right of this slide shows the composition of the two senior debt facilities of $113 million dedicated to MTR's construction, which together with the $22 million received from the simplistic gold forward sale transaction fully funded the project's development costs without having to raise equity. Dividend also is a growing loan of $90 million dedicated to the funding of our renewable energy plants. This facility, which we can effectively June also provides for an embedded equipment option of $40 million for future funding requirements of this nature. On 15th June 2024, the senior facilities were fully drawn as expenditure of MTR peaks and to reduce the risk of a severe dip line in the rand gold price, will edit into a number of gold price hedges that will lock in the rand proceeds on 49% of the lower end of the group's 2025 financial year's guided ounces. The effect of these edges is that 18% of the 2025 financial year's production is locked in at a fixed price of $1,942 an ounce in terms of the Synthetic gold forward sale transaction and 31% locked in at a floor price of $2,147 an ounce and a cap price of $2,995 an ounce assuming an exchange rate of ZAR18.19 to the dollar. The synthetic gold forward sale transaction expires in February 2025 and a zero cost collars by 15th June 2025 were after the group is unhedged. It is however, likely that we'll continue to make use of short-term ranges on this nature, especially zero-cost collars to lock in cash margins and reduce short-term financial risk while participating in the upside to the level of the capital price. Slide 38 illustrates the magnitude of the quarterly principal and interest redemptions of the group's similar debt to June 2029, when all existing senior debt is extinguished. Until June 2025, [indiscernible] with only quarterly principal storms of a renewable energy facility being payable. But from September 2025, the early facilities redemptions commenced. And in December 2025, the 3-year bond with a nominal value of ZAR585 million, approximately $32 million which is the large spike in debt reductions in June 2026 comprises the $54 million bullet reduction on the RCF. Mintail's updated cash flow projections markup lets a buyback period of approximately 2 years post commissioning of the original electronic at [indiscernible]. What's astounding, it is likely that the RCF will again be extended as has been the case in the past as it constitutes a key component of our core financing facilities. We also have numerous approaches from financial institutions to anticipate to refinance of the in term of bond issue should further capital expenditure funding required in due course. Signal debt is expected to pick at approximately ZAR3.5 billion approximately $190 million towards the end of this calendar year, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 52%, still well within the senior debt covenant of one to one. Slide 39 tracks the group's historical dividend yields and yield of the proposed dividend of ZAR489 million or approximately $26.8 million for the 2024 financial year. The proposed 2024 financial year dividend is a payout ratio of approximately 53% of cash flow, as defined by the dividend policy and is an increase of 22% in rand terms and 26.5% in dollar terms relative to the prior year. With the share price doubling year-on-year, the dividend yield has declined to 3.6% relative to the 5.9% of the prior year when the closing share price was ZAR3.3 or 12.5p per share. On the basis that the proposed 2024 financial year dividend is approved by shareholders and paid in December with total dividends paid to shareholders during the first decades is $193 million. Finally, Slide 40 shows a return on the group's shareholder funds for the 2024 financial year, relative to a gold mining peer group. Return on equity and cash flow per share are two of the key parameters for measuring the success of our value grade and try and to inform our circumspect approach to capital allocation decisions and M&A. After a decline in the group's return on equity in the prior financial year, it has now increased to 25% for this financial year and post the imminent commissioning of MTR, we should again see it enter the aspirational range of 25% to 30% as MTR contributes higher margin answers to the group. Thank you. Cobus Loots Thank you very much, Deon. If we conclude on Slide 41, Pan African continues to be focused on delivery and execution. Key areas for us in the next year include the following: we will continue our proactive journey to zero-harm. We will successfully execute into our capital projects, including a very exciting MTR development, that will increase and sustain our future gold production profile at approximately 250,000 ounces per year. We will continue optimization and improvement initiatives to increase gold production as per our guidance and to further reduce costs. We look forward to progressing our ESG initiatives and our focus on maintaining our social license to operate, while also expanding our renewable energy footprint and rehabilitating old areas for the benefit of our communities. We will maintain our focus on generating sustainable shareholder returns, creating value for all stakeholders. And finally, we will continue to explore value-accretive options for further growth in a very circumspect manner as always. I would like to end my presentation by extending my thanks and appreciation to Deon Louw, who is retiring for some very well-deserved R&R. Deon will, however, remain available as a consultant to the group. Deon and I have known each other for more than 20 years and have worked together Pan African for more than a decade, is acumen, experience and advice greatly assisted and position Pan African where we find ourselves today. Deon, you are a fantastic colleague and a friend, and we wish you all the best for the future. Question-and-Answer Session |
Posted at 11/9/2024 10:36 by stonedyou Pan African Resources PLCAIM:PAF OTCQX:PAFRY JSE:PAN OTCQX:PAFRF Pan African confirms earnings soared in latest financial year Published: 13:24 05 Sep 2024 BST Pan African Resources PLC (AIM:PAF, OTCQX:PAFRY, JSE:PAN, OTCQX:PAFRF) said earnings for the twelve months to end June 2024 will be more than 25% higher than the year previously. A trading statement is a requirement of the Johannesburg stock exchange if earnings change by 20% from the year before and the South African gold miner said headline earnings per share (HEPS) are expected to be between US3.99c per share and US4.31c per share. That compares to US3.15c per share for the 202-23 or an increase of between 27% and 37%. Basic earnings per share (EPS) for the current reporting period would be between US3.98c per share and US4.30c cents per share respectively, an increase of 25% - 35%. Pan African added that revenue during the year increased by 16.8%, mainly due to an increase in gold sold of 4.9% combined with an increase in the average US$ gold price of 11.3%. Results for the year ended 30 June 2024 will be released on 11 September 2024. Shares rose 0.3% to 29.5p. |
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