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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan African Resources Plc | LSE:PAF | London | Ordinary Share | GB0004300496 | ORD 1P |
| Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.90 | -5.81% | 47.00 | 6,949,859 | 16:29:59 |
| Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.80 | 47.00 | 49.20 | 46.15 | 48.55 | |
| Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Ores | USD 373.8M | USD 79.38M | USD 0.0414 | 11.35 | 956.34M |
| Last Trade Time | Trade Type | Trade Size | Trade Price | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:35:12 | O | 4,725 | 23.00 | GBX |
| Date | Time | Source | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/6/2025 | 11:31 | ALNC |  Pan African Resources revises down annual production guidance |
| 11/6/2025 | 08:45 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Operational Update, Record Half-Year Gold.. |
| 09/6/2025 | 12:00 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Holding(s) in Company |
| 03/6/2025 | 13:30 | ALNC | IN THE KNOW: Pan African Resources' Tennant takeover oozes potential |
| 08/5/2025 | 13:15 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Holding(s) in Company |
| 30/4/2025 | 11:10 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Holding(s) in Company |
| 16/4/2025 | 09:33 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Holding(s) in Company |
| 11/4/2025 | 17:01 | ALNC | IN THE KNOW: More upside possible in Pan African Resources - Peel Hunt |
| 25/3/2025 | 12:15 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Holding(s) in Company |
| 25/3/2025 | 08:30 | UKREG | Pan African Resources Plc - Holding(s) in Company |
Pan African Resources (PAF) Share Charts1 Year Pan African Resources Chart |
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1 Month Pan African Resources Chart |
Intraday Pan African Resources Chart |
| Date | Time | Title | Posts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/6/2025 | 22:14 | Pan African Resources a sleeping giant | 2,409 |
| 16/6/2025 | 15:39 | Pan African Resources for 2006 (PAF) Moderated | 13,180 |
| 27/5/2025 | 09:12 | Pan African Resources - Ripe for Takeover ? | 283 |
| 12/2/2025 | 16:56 | tuscan | - |
| 19/8/2024 | 10:35 | tuscan | - |
| Trade Time | Trade Price | Trade Size | Trade Value | Trade Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00:11 | 23.00 | 4,725 | 1,086.75 | O |
| 16:20:03 | 23.00 | 4,725 | 1,086.75 | O |
| 15:35:12 | 47.00 | 2,366,830 | 1,112,410.10 | UT |
| 15:29:56 | 47.00 | 10 | 4.70 | AT |
| 15:29:52 | 46.85 | 1,460 | 684.01 | AT |
| Top Posts |
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Posted at 24/6/2025 09:20 by Pan African Resources Daily Update Pan African Resources Plc is listed in the Gold Ores sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker PAF. The last closing price for Pan African Resources was 49.90p.Pan African Resources currently has 1,916,503,988 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Pan African Resources is £900,756,874. Pan African Resources has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 11.35. This morning PAF shares opened at 48.55p |
Posted at 16/6/2025 12:25 by stonedyou Myrmikan ResearchJune 12, 2025 Markets Already Crashing Until this cycle, the gold price followed general asset prices in nominal terms: when the Fed added liquidity, the gold price increased along with stocks; when the Fed decreased liquidity, the gold price and other asset prices fell. Only those who accepted gold’s role as free market money understood that gold was, in fact, trading against asset markets on a real basis. From 1999 to 2008, for example, gold rose roughly fourfold. Pretty impressive performance, until one remembers that oil ran more than tenfold: gold’s real price was actually plunging, and properly so: in a credit bubble, such as in the 2000s, asset prices go up in terms of money, so those holding money (gold) should have losses. Those losses were not obvious because they were only relative—gold& The panic of 2008 saw oil crash 80% from peak to trough. Gold fell only 30%. Nominal losses made it feel like holding gold was the wrong trade, even though gold’s purchasing power rose substantially. Gold mining margins exploded, but gold mining stocks crashed anyway: debt in nominal terms stressed balance sheets, and overlevered, overexposed equity investors sent some juniors down 90% or more. Then the Fed started printing, gold’s nominal price tripled off the bottom, and did so well before oil and other industrial commodities reacted, boosting real gold mining margins further. There was a brief moment when the stars aligned: dollar liquidity, the nominal gold price, and the real gold price were all rising simultaneously. Gold mining stocks loved it, came tearing off the 2008 bottom, and produced a spike high into Autumn 2011. It was not to last. Gold (in real terms) does not like a credit bubble, and Bernanke managed to save the banks and pump credit back into the system, more credit than before, in fact. Gold’s nominal price was sliced in half from the peak; the real price fell even more; the miners were slaughtered. Gold’s nominal price may have traded against the stock market in this episode, but only because gold’s price had run too far too fast in the previous. At its nadir, the gold price remained above its 2008 spike top—a lot better than oil’s performance. It still took some insight to look through nominal prices and see what was happening on a real basis. NOTE: This material is for discussion purposes only. This is not an offer to buy or sell or subscribe or invest in se curities. The information contained herein has been prepared for informational purposes using sources considered reliable and accurate, however, it is subject to change and we cannot guarantee the accurateness of the information. Myrmikan Research June 12, 2025 Page 2 Similar dynamics to the above played out in 2018. Long before COVID hit, the credit cycle was rolling over: In September 2018, the Federal Reserve signaled it was going to raise interest rates three times in 2019. In December, it reduced its projected rate hikes for 2019 to twice. Four weeks later, the number of forecasted hikes was down to zero. In March 2019, the Federal Reserve announced it would end the reduction of its balance sheet by that September. In August, the FOMC reduced the fed funds rate by 0.25 percent. In September, the repo market imploded and the Fed began printing (they called it LE, Liquidity Enhancement, instead of QE, Quantitative Easing). Gold was rising this whole time, having bottomed at $1,183/oz in September of 2018, and reached $1,682 right before the COVID panic, up 42%. Gold did not rise all alone; the stock market rose 34% from the nadir of it 2018 swoon to the interim top in February 2020. The market judged that Powell was ahead of the deflationary curve: the Fed was adding liquidity faster than the market was removing it, and so asset prices must rise; but, this time, not as fast as gold: despite Powell’s efforts, stocks were actually falling in real terms. Once again, since gold and markets were heading in the same direction, it was not obvious to those looking at nominal prices what was happening, especially heading into March of 2020 when the stock market, commodities, gold, and gold stocks collapsed together—gold looked like just another asset bobbing up and down on the Fed’s liquidity. Powell’s COVID printing shock made the summer of 2020 revisit the happy confluence of 2009: liquidity, the nominal gold price, and the real gold price all rose simultaneously. Gold miners spiked just like in 2011. Then credit came roaring back: ommodities rallied, the stock market surged in nominal and real terms, and gold mining equity prices began a lengthy retreat (though nothing like the 2013 disaster). Perhaps this state of affairs could have continued for some time: gold moving in the same direction as other assets in nominal terms, real prices perceptible only in relative pricing; but then the Biden administration confiscated Russia’s dollar reserves in February 2022, and the long-term relationship between real interest rates and the gold price ended abruptly, heralding the dollar’s demise as the primary international reserve asset. Biden Confiscates Russia’s Foreign Reserves-3.0% 0.0% 3.0% $0 oz $1,800 oz $3,600 oz 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Gold Price NOTE: This material is for discussion purposes only. This is not an offer to buy or sell or subscribe or invest in se curities. The information contained herein has been prepared for informational purposes using sources considered reliable and accurate, however, it is subject to change and we cannot guarantee the accurateness of the information. Myrmikan Research June 12, 2025 Page 3 As discussed in more detail in previous letters, the gold price was positively correlated with nominal rates in the 1970s: rising interest rates devalued the Fed’s assets (bonds fall in price when interest rates rise), devaluing its liability (i.e., the dollar), sending the gold price higher. This relationship flipped beginning in the 1980s. As the Eurodollar system put the whole planet on a U.S. dollar debt standard, lower rates meant added liquidity to global financial markets, not high domestic inflation, whereas higher rates created a short-squeeze on dollars, especially abroad: gold’s relationship to nominal interest rates became anti-correlated. We have been writing for years that the end of the U.S. international dollar standard would be preceded by the price of gold reestablishing its positive correlation to nominal rates, reverting to a state in which the gold price cares more about the value of the Fed’s bond portfolio than about external demand for dollars to service non-U.S., dollardenominated debt. The chart above shows that this flip occurred in dramatic fashion when Biden and Blinken confiscated Russia’s foreign reserves. It would be too much to say that Biden caused the problem—the root cause being unsustainable deficits—but he certainly accelerated it. Gold’s reestablished role as the best reserve asset means that its nominal price no longer must travel in the same direction as other asset prices. Gold completely ignored the stock market when it went into its swoon earlier this year, nor did gold soften when the market came roaring back in May. 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2022 2023 2024 2025 Gold Price Viewed in the abstract, gold and the S&P500 are just two markets bouncing around: from the beginning of 2025 to the market bottom on April 8, the S&P500 fell 15%, whereas the gold price rose 17%, hardly headline material. An appreciation of gold’s role as market-based, de facto money, however, reveals that in real terms the S&P500 had crashed by 26.4%! The May bounce in the stock market, which is now flat year-to-date in nominal terms, is mostly erased in real terms: the S&P500 remains down 21.5% for the year in terms of gold. These bounces are typical for a top. NOTE: This material is for discussion purposes only. This is not an offer to buy or sell or subscribe or invest in se curities. The information contained herein has been prepared for informational purposes using sources considered reliable and accurate, however, it is subject to change and we cannot guarantee the accurateness of the information. Myrmikan Research June 12, 2025 Page 4 After the great 1920s credit debauchery, for example, the stock market fell 47.9% from September 3, 1929 to November 13, 1929. It then recovered and was down only 23.0% as late as April 12, 1930, before rolling over and sinking 89.2% in nominal terms. Roosevelt had devalued the dollar from $20.67/oz to $35/oz, meaning the stock market actually fell 93.6% in real terms. The decline after the 1960s credit excess was even worse. The first break of the stock market, from the peak in 1967 to May 1970 saw a 35% decline in real terms before bouncing to be down only 10% by April 1971. Then the market plunged to make a false bottom, down 89% in December 1974. A swift recovery through August 1976 put the market down 65% from the top, before it made a final bottom on January 21, 1980, down 96.2% in real terms. The chart below shows that these two great credit orgies were pathetic compared to what Alan Greenspan wrought in the 1990s. That debauchery was such that even though Greenspan then Bernanke kept financial conditions lose after the 2000 peak, the bubble deflated in real terms anyway. It was only in 2008 that Bernanke panicked with his QE-blitz. The stock market sprang off the bottom but with much less vigor than before. It peaked in mid-2018, long before COVID; and the $5 trillion COVID QE barely got the market past its 2018 peak. The QE drug is wearing thin. What will prompt the next dose? How big will it have to be? With how much less effect? 2000 Internet Bubble Top Greenspan Keynesian “New Economics” 1929 Crash 0 3 6 1900 1939 1979 2019 1970s Inflationary Debt Collapse Biden/Blinken take Russia’s Reserves Bernanke QE 2018 2008 Panic 2025 crash COVID The Austrian school of economics holds that credit levels must rise at an accelerating pace in order to maintain a credit bubble. The bubble is induced because artificially low rates deceive businessmen into thinking that more capital exists than really does. Guided by the low rates, they design and then implement a flurry of projects to exploit this capital: this is the boom, which politicians and the public crave. When it transpires that the capital was only imaginary—that the interest rate signal was defective—ther It has been a curious feature of the past three years—and a challenge to the Austrian model—that rates have been able to move higher without crashing markets. These pages have opined that various financial structures have merely delayed the crash: in NOTE: This material is for discussion purposes only. This is not an offer to buy or sell or subscribe or invest in se curities. The information contained herein has been prepared for informational purposes using sources considered reliable and accurate, however, it is subject to change and we cannot guarantee the accurateness of the information. Myrmikan Research June 12, 2025 Page 5 the mid-2000s, around 35% of mortgage applications were adjustable rate, whereas currently 92% of mortgages are fixed rate, insulating consumers. Ever more of the economy has been swallowed by private equity and private credit funds which, unlike hedge funds, lock up their investors for at least a decade, suppressing the mechanism for sudden panic. Corporate executives figured out that they could use the easy money not to overinvest in capital—the typical rent-seeking response—but to buy back shares of their companies instead, juicing the value of their options. And then the large jump in retail prices has had the effect of reducing the debt loads on large companies in real terms, making default less likely. But perhaps the main reason why asset markets have failed to crash in nominal terms is because they are already crashing in real terms. This is the trick that policy makers figured out in the 1970s: stocks went down in real terms even more than they did after the 1929 crash, but there were no jarring stories of sudden poverty, no bodies flying out of Wall Street towers—from beginning to end, the nominal stock market decline was only 11%. Over fourteen years, wealth was slowly and stealthy confiscated from the former class of asset holders. This does not mean that stocks will not or cannot crash. Recall the Asia crisis of the late 1990s during which stocks plunged in nominal price while currencies also crashed, a great way to get poor fast. Americans cannot imagine such an outcome. For over a century, global financial instability has sent capital into the U.S., meaning market declines were softened by a rising currency. But the criminal mismanagement of the American Empire in general and the Federal Reserve in particular has degraded the mighty dollar as financial ballast. Gold is still cheap. At $3,300/oz, gold comprises just 13% of the Fed’s assets, the same level as in 1971. As discussed in previous letters, the market demands one-third backing in normal times, assuming that the bank’s other assets are sound. These are not normal times, and the Fed’s other assets are not sound. Gold is cheap, and the gold miners are cheaper still. As yet we have only two of the three conditions necessary for a mania: a rising nominal gold price and a rising real gold price. If the Fed panics and increases dollar liquidity, we should see at least a redux of 2016 and 2020 gold mining stock returns; now that nominal prices are starting to reveal real values, and the ongoing devaluation of the dollar is obvious to everyone, the performance will likely be better. The information transmitted is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this in error, please contact the sender and delete the material from your computer. The material contained herein is for discussion purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell securities. It has been prepared using sources considered reli able and accurate, however, it is subject to change and the accurateness of the material cannot be guaranteed. NOTE: This material is for discussion purposes only. This is not an offer to buy or sell or subscribe or invest in securities. The information contained herein has been prepared for informational purposes using sources considered r |
Posted at 12/6/2025 02:56 by salisbury3 Whichever way you look at it, PAF has cut full-year production guidance, which is disappointing. I expect the share price to continue to tread water for a bit (hope I am wrong!). However, there seems to be little downside unless there is a collapse in the POG (highly unlikely). |
Posted at 11/6/2025 20:25 by stonedyou Pan African Resources PLC( AIM:PAF OTCQX:PAFRY JSE:PAN ) Pan African Resources confirms debt reduction, launches share buy-backs Published: 09:19 11 Jun 2025 BST Pan African Resources PLC (AIM:PAF, OTCQX:PAFRY, JSE:PAN) reported record gold production of approximately 112,000 ounces for the second half of the 2025 financial year, a 32% increase compared to the first half. Full year output is expected to reach around 197,000 ounces, up 6% on the previous year. Group net debt is expected to be about $155 million by the end of June, representing a reduction of some 32% from the start of this year. Supported by continuing strong gold pricing, Pan African expects to be fully ‘degeared&rsqu At the same time, it is now to proceed with a $11 million (ZAR 200 million) share buyback. “I believe the group has never been better positioned to take advantage of record gold prices, with record second half gold production being testament to that achievement,” chief executive Cobus Loots said in a statement. “Increased cashflow generation and de-gearing is allowing our business to continue to invest and grow, whilst also increasing cash returns to shareholders. “The share buy back programme approved by our board demonstrates our confidence in the group and its prospects.” Operations PAF told investors that surface operations at Elikhulu, MTR and BTRP mines performed consistently despite heavy rainfall earlier in the year. At Tennant Mines in Australia, the gold processing plant was commissioned in May and is expected to reach steady-state production of 50,000 ounces per year in the first quarter of FY26. It now pitches group production guidance for FY26 between 275,000 and 292,000 ounces, a 40% increase from the prior year. The company noted that in the second half of the 2025 financial year, the miner’s all-in-sustaining-co Next year, it forecasts a lowered AISC range between $1,475 and $1,525. “We look forward to reporting our final results for the year ended June 2025 on 10 September 2025, where additional details on progress with our growth projects and sustainability initiatives will be presented,” Loots added. |
Posted at 09/6/2025 14:52 by marben100 barcroft, PAF's year end is 30th June. We'll get a final dividend announced in the final results, in September.Alliance news reported this on 3rd June. Surprised that first gold pour at Nobles hasn't been RNSed: (Alliance News) - Pan African Resources PLC's newly acquired Tennant Consolidated Mining Group Pty Ltd is beginning to show upside potential. The gold junior took full control of the Australian gold company after acquiring an additional 92% in November last year. Berenberg affirmed a share price target of 57 pence, and maintained a 'buy' rating on Pan Africa. Peel Hunt reiterated a 'buy' recommendation, with a share price target of 52p. In London, shares in Pan African were up 0.3% at 47.85p each on Tuesday. They were up 0.1% at ZAR11.48 in Johannesburg. Pan African on Tuesday hosted a site visit of Tennant's mines operations, located in Tennant Creek, in Australia. Tennant Mines has started production from its Nobles Gold Project, with first gold pour occurring early last month. The steady-state production is expected early in the first quarter of the financial year ending June 30, 2026. Berenberg thinks there is scope for additional gold volumes at Tennant mines this decade based on its growth options, offering potential upside to the bank's current estimates. "Management highlighted that it took only four years from concept to first gold pour at the Nobles Gold Project, and the plant was constructed on time and on budget," Berenberg noted. Pan African has refined its mine plan for financial year 2026 and 2027 and expects gold production of 50,000 ounces in both 2026 and 2027, at an all-in sustaining cost of USD1,450 an ounce and USD1,600, respectively. This compares to the previous mine plan of 47,500 ounces and 42,200 ounces. "In our view, with the Nobles plant ramping up, gold growth from Australia is on its way that, in turn, will support group cash flow generation and shareholder returns," Berenberg said. Peel Hunt is also confident in upside potential increasing after the Tennant visit. "It was clear to us when Tennant's Creek was announced in December 2024 that the acquisition was about the potential of the district rather than the initial mine plan," Peel Hunt said. "It is pleasing to see an operational site just six months after deal close, but more so to see that acquisition potential start to emerge." |
Posted at 27/5/2025 10:13 by stonedyou Citi Bullish on Gold, Americans Purchase Hit Record High.Citi, the American multinational lender, reaffirmed its short-term gold price target at $3,500 an ounce. Olumide Adesina•Monday, May 26, 2025. Quick overview Citi has reaffirmed its short-term gold price target at $3,500 an ounce due to rising tariffs and geopolitical risks. The bank raised its gold price estimate to a range of $3,100 to $3,500 per ounce, despite maintaining a cautious long-term outlook. Short-term targets for palladium and platinum are set at $1,050 and $900 per ounce, respectively, with a focus on improving end-use demand. Citi anticipates a period of consolidation for gold prices as trade tensions ease, predicting stabilization in the second half of 2025. Citi, the American multinational lender, reaffirmed its short-term gold price target at $3,500 an ounce, citing the recent increase in tariffs and significant geopolitical risks. According to a note released on Sunday, the bank raised its estimate of gold prices from $3,000 to $3,300 per ounce on May 12 to a range of $3,100 to $3,500 per ounce. The U.S bank maintains its long-term cautious approach to gold despite the upgrade. The bank cites two main explanations: the potential for growth and associated equity risks diminishing as U.S. households now own more gold than they had in fifty years, the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, and the midterm elections draw near. The short-term price targets for palladium and platinum remain $1,050 and $900 per ounce, respectively. Citi believes that a sustained upward trend requires a genuine improvement in end-use demand, and the recent platinum rally is viewed as headline-driven. The palladium rally represents yet another opportunity, according to the bank. Citi has maintained a bullish outlook on gold, initially increasing its target price to $3,500 per ounce in April 2025. On April 22, concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence caused the price of gold to surpass its previous record. Citi called for a period of consolidation for gold prices as trade tensions began to de-escalate and lowered its short-term target to $3,150 per ounce, which was reached on May 15. In the second half of 2025, Citi predicts that gold prices will continue to stabilize at their current levels. |
Posted at 22/4/2025 15:47 by stonedyou Record Gold Prices Driving Chinese Investment DemandInvestors continued to pour into the Chinese gold market in March as prices surged to new records. China ranks as the world’s largest gold market. The price of gold climbed 8.4 percent in yuan terms in March. It was the strongest month for the yellow metal since March 2024. The RMB gold price recorded its strongest Q1 since 2002 when the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) was established. According to the World Gold Council, “Geopolitical tensions and Trump's unpredictable trade policies increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. A weaker dollar and higher gold ETF investments pushed up prices further.” The fact that gold was up 9.9 percent in dollar terms - more than in yuan terms - last month revealed this dollar weakness. The rising gold price has created headwinds for the Chinese wholesale gold market. This largely reflects demand for gold jewelry. Price-sensitive consumers have slowed their purchases. However, there was a rebound in wholesale demand in March as reflected by a 33-tonne month-on-month increase in withdrawals from the SGE. Gold withdrawals from the SGE totaled 120 tonnes last month. According to the World Gold Council, this primarily reflected an increase in seasonal demand, and jewelers and banks restocked after the Chinese New Year holiday. Wholesale demand at 336 tonnes in the first quarter was down 36 percent year-on-year, primarily reflecting soft demand due to higher prices. “The record-shattering gold price hampered gold jewelry demand, a major factor in SGE gold withdrawals, although it did boost gold investment.” Gold investment has primarily shown up in a surge in ETF demand. ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold. Chinese ETFs reported record gold inflows of 23 tonnes totaling ¥16.7 billion ($2.3 billion) in Q1. According to the WGC, “The unprecedented gold price surge, shaky confidence in other domestic assets, as well as growth concerns stemming from escalating trade conflicts with the U.S., all contributed to strong Q1 flows.” Investor demand for gold ramped up even more during the first two weeks of April. Preliminary data indicates another 29 tonnes of gold poured into Chinese gold-backed funds, eclipsing the Q1 total. Assets under management (AUM) exploded by 25 percent in those two weeks. Chinese demand for gold has been so strong over the last few weeks that the government has allocated additional gold import quotas for commercial banks. Up until last month, gold imports have been rather tepid. They virtually came to a halt in January only 17 tonnes reported. That was the lowest monthly level since February 2021, as imports were hampered by COVID restrictions. February imports picked up, rising to 76 tonnes. It will be interesting to see the March numbers when they are reported. Looking ahead, World Gold Council analyst Ray Jia expects gold investment demand to remain strong, primarily driven by the escalating trade war. “The global gold price strength, boosted by a restructuring of the world trade order and world market volatility, will provide further support.” A pilot program that allows insurance funds to invest in gold should also support Chinese demand. To date, four insurance companies have joined the SGE. They executed their first trades of gold contracts the very next day. According to Jia, “Their participation should sustain long-term investment demand for gold in China, especially amid ongoing economic and trade uncertainties.&rdquo High prices will likely continue to put pressure on gold jewelry demand, but Jia suggested safe haven buying could offer a cushion. Mike Maharrey The Author |
Posted at 03/4/2025 14:24 by stonedyou Pan African Resources well-placed for future on extraordinary low PE ratio says fund manager (LON:PAF)Pan African Resources plc (LON:PAF) outperformance is discussed by Gervais Williams, Co-Fund Manager of Diverse Income Trust plc in an exclusive interview on the diversified and successful holdings in DIVI investment trust. DirectorsTalk asked: Pan African Resources plc share price has been on a real upward trend in 2024 and 2025. What do investors need to know about this leading gold producer in Africa? Gervais Williams commented:It’s a gold mining company: it’s got both deep mines and actually, on the surface, it gets its tailings and is refining some of the tailings, bringing a new mine into production called Mintails. But what’s interesting about companies like this is when you do get lucky, and the gold price has done extremely well over the last 12 months, then not only do you find that the profits you generate are very substantial, but as that’s annualised in the following year, then you find actually the upgrades continue. So, what’s been interesting about this company is if you take it from December 2023, the share price is up something like 130%, which is a terrific return, don’t get me wrong, but what’s interesting is even now, having outperformed by that degree, if you take it through to June 2025, it’s on 5.5 times PE ratio, according to Bloomberg. If you look at it through to the following year, June 2026, it’s gone to 3.9 times, extraordinary. So, it just shows that as you get these companies succeeding, they don’t just succeed this year; you get that annualised effect as they get a full year of the new gold price. It’s a terrific company, it’s one of our largest holdings, many of these are pretty much the largest holdings. Now don’t get me wrong, we have to take some profits along the way, we have taken a bit of profit on Pan Africa Resources. Nothing wrong with it, it’s just that its valuation has moved. It’s a big part of the portfolio and we’ve taken some profits. We’ve got some relatively chunky companies in the portfolio, and we’ve got some pretty exciting upside. Again, it’s just the nature of the range of companies. We’re not just looking for companies which happen to be in the manufacturing sector or companies which are in the software sector. It’s the range of companies. And I think the Pan African Resources with its gold mining company also has an opportunity to succeed even at times of uncertainty. It also had an extremely successful period in the portfolio, for example, from March 2020 when we had the pandemic. It’s that range of holdings together with the momentum, this cash surplus, good and growing income, which we think is contrasting with the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) out there and we think that’s what’s going to change. As people take money out of some of those ETFs, as they come into the UK market, we’ve got this long-term trend of UK outperformance. These kinds of portfolios in the Diverse Income Trust we think are tremendously well-placed for the future. |
Posted at 14/1/2025 16:24 by stonedyou If PAF’s average year one price to normalised EPS ratio of 8.2x for the period FY10–24is applied to our normalised earnings forecasts, it implies a share price for PAF of 45.71p in FY25 followed by one of 48.44p in FY26. Stated alternatively, PAF’s current share price of 31.95p, at prevailing foreign exchange rates, appears to be discounting FY25 and/or FY26 normalised HEPS of 4.95c per share (cf our forecasts of 7.09c and 7.51c, respectively). Relative peer group valuation In the meantime, it may be seen that PAF remains cheap relative to its London- and South African-listed gold mining peers on 83% of comparable common valuation measures (29 out of 36 individual measures in the table below) if Edison forecasts are used or 91% of valuation measures (32 out of 36 individual measures) if consensus forecasts are used. |
Posted at 14/1/2025 16:11 by stonedyou Alternatively, applying PAF’s peer average year one P/E ratio of 19.8x to ournormalised HEPS forecast of 7.09c per share for FY25 implies a share price for the company of 110.70p at prevailing foreign exchange rates – albeit this calculates to 58.47p if Sibanye is excluded from the peer group. Applying its peer average year two P/E ratio of 8.4x to our normalised HEPS forecast of 7.51c per share for FY26 implies a share price of 49.52p. |
Posted at 10/12/2024 16:18 by stonedyou Valuation: Still cheap compared to history and peersWe have pared back our core (absolute) valuation of PAF to its pre-May level of 40.93c per share (31.82p) to reflect both the recent, slightly uncharacteristic ‘above trend’ strength of the rand against both the US dollar and sterling and slightly sticky cost inflation in H224. However, this valuation rises by a further 22.30–27.32c if other assets (eg Egoli and the Soweto cluster) are taken into account. Alternatively, if PAF’s historical average price to normalised HEPS ratio of 8.2x for the period FY10–24 is applied to our FY25 and FY26 forecasts, it implies a value of 44.70p in FY25, followed by 41.17p in FY26. As such, PAF’s current share price of 33.65p could be interpreted as discounting normalised HEPS rising to only 5.48c per share in FY25 and/or FY26 (cf our forecasts of 7.28c and 6.71c, respectively). In the meantime, PAF remains cheaper than its principal London- and South African-listed gold mining peers on at least 80% of commonly used valuation measures, regardless of whether they are based on Edison or consensus forecasts. Performing a relative valuation analysis, its peers imply a comparable valuation for PAF of 61.03p based on our year one EPS estimate and 43.33p based on our year two EPS estimate. Finally, we calculate that PAF is trading at an enterprise value of just US$23.33 per resource ounce of gold. |
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