Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 28/2/2024 09:06

There is a growing gold shortage in Vietnam. This might contribute to investors moving back into shares and property now that they seem to have started rising again?

[aleman] 28/2/2024 08:14

Broken out. Can it hold? And what next? There's quite a lot of catching up to do.

Edit - VN INDEX actually closed up 1.38% this morning.

[aleman] 28/2/2024 07:24

VN Index up 1.19% to a 19-month high this morning. Up 7.5% now just in February.

[aleman] 27/2/2024 14:15

Only got to rise a few pence or stay here a few days and the 3-year downtrend is broken.

[spangle93] 27/2/2024 14:03

interceptor - NAG, DYOR etc, but one of the steadiest investment trust performancers I hold, perversely in terms of mainstream thinking on risk, is BRFI, on a 4% yield at current price.

Only about 5% is in Vietnam, the rest is liberally sprinkled across parts of the world you wouldn't normally consider investing in ;-)


walter - yes, it's been a long time since the days of, was it EEN/GPX? I've made a small fortune from junior oil/gas/miners... sadly I started with a large fortune, sigh

[aleman] 27/2/2024 07:35

VN Index up over 1% for a second day. It's gained 21% from a higher low 4 months ago, during which it's gone up almost in a straight line. (It's now at an interesting technical resistnace point.) You'd have no idea from looking at VOF's price.

[walter walcarpets] 26/2/2024 18:36

A few names I recognise here.....Aleman, Spangle. I added today after a long absence here. GLA

[spangle93] 26/2/2024 17:50

31337 - yep, me too. VNH did me very well, more than doubled money, but closure of discount has led to me selling there and adding here.

[aleman] 26/2/2024 14:59

Must be getting close to breaking the downtrend again. Will have a look at the chart again later.

[martincc] 26/2/2024 13:46

At last buyers outweighing sellers, even though NAV has fallen back a bit. On the move? Added a few more

[aleman] 26/2/2024 13:38

For anyone not paying close attention, the VNH discount is 2%. If we were the same here, we'd be about 27% higher at 565p, and probably even a bit more when today's big market rise hits tomorrow's NAV.

[interceptor2] 26/2/2024 13:18

Same here I also sold out of VNH and switched to VOF, haven't bought VEIL yet but I will.

And for the same reasons as 31337 COD3R, I want to always have exposure to Vietnam.

[31337 c0d3r] 26/2/2024 12:56

I've completely sold out of VNH and with the proceeds added to VOF and VEIL 50/50.

My bet is on Vietnam rather than any particular fund.

Will redistribute back to VNH when discounts are more balanced.

[aleman] 23/2/2024 10:12

There's an interesting graph in CLIG's interim results. Page 9 shows the average discount of constituent funds in The First Trust Municipal Closed-End Fund Total Return Index. Since Aug 2020, the graph has moved from around +2% to around -12.5% as of Dec 2023. There is a slight rise in the last couple of months from -13.5%. Is this a bottom or just a small correction to the downtrend? It look like a possible break out of the downtrend since 2020. A couple of similar breakouts in previous years saw a recovery in one case and a two year sideways movement before a recovery in the other.

There is a possibility that it is suggesting discounts have stopped expanding. It is plumbing the lowest level since 2005, leaving a greater potential for reversion to the mean.

[arja] 23/2/2024 09:19

the late fall in Vietnem indices has had no effect on VOF but logical I guess :) .But XFVT reacts and hence a better trading instrument .

[aleman] 23/2/2024 08:10

VOF could benefit from a predicted 13% rise in total market Vietnamese earnings in 2024 (flat 2023) and a rise in the lowly P/E of around 10 - two standard deviations below normal. This ignores and closure of the near-record (outside of Covid) 25% discount to NAV. This is all beginning to sound very positive. Q4 update:

[arja] 22/2/2024 16:23

PINT is the one which is not a SD stock but not a great looking shart like PIN which sadly attracts SD and hence no good for a quick trade :)

[aleman] 22/2/2024 10:23

India Capital Growth Fund IT fell to a 40%+ discount in March and April 2020. Discussions to solve the problem pushed it back up to more like 20% but it was implementation of a series of tender offers at 6% under par that brought the discount back to normal. I think just the offer being there was enough to restore confidence, without many actually taking it up. It now trades nearly at par and the shares went from a low of 32p to 184p now so a great success story. (The Indian bull market might have done it anyway in time but the first tender offer did genuinely look to be why the gap closed considerably in the short term.) That experience possibly highlights a significant opportunity here for the patient.

Looks like Vietnam is booming now:

Industrial output was up 18.3% in January (from 5.8% in Dec.) - the 8th highest month in a series going back to Jan 2009 and the 9th consecutive rise since April.

As well as tourism and agricultural exports booming, it looks like the tech sector is exploding:

[dpmcq] 22/2/2024 09:58

martincc

Said the same thing myself a few post ago.
Since Jan 22 there has been over 10 million shares bought back by the company.
If there was not enough shares on offer and an appetite for them with the buybacks this would be higher and a tighter NAV.
Can only hope the seller or sellers are done soon.

[hpcg] 22/2/2024 09:44

Many years ago now there was a private equity B series issue that traded 40% below the identically ranked original listing. Primarily it was just illiquid. I'm pretty sure that it was Pantheon PIP and PIPR, though it doesn't matter. I held that for about a year, and then sold out of boredom. Some time after, but not such a long time after that I didn't notice there was a significant corporate action that closed the gap entirely (see RNS below). My thesis was correct, that I would collect both the simple gain from the rising asset price, and also the big alpha upside from the discount closing. My strategy was incorrect though, I assumed the market would solve the inefficiency rapidly as the Pantheon NAV and share price were rising after a correction.
This is a somewhat similar case. It seems likely that after a correction in 2022 the Vietnamese stock market is in a new up-phase, with the next hurdle the late summer 2023 intermediate highs. If that is so then in the medium term VOF investors will capture both the beta and the alpha from the discount closing.


It was indeed Pantheon -

[martincc] 22/2/2024 09:39

Added a few, can buy 5k @441.925p, cheaper than yesterday yet nav up another 4p
NAV slowly rising, share price still dropping, 24.84% dtnav now.
Must be a seller here pinning the price down, or just unloved?

[aleman] 22/2/2024 07:38

588p is a 17-month high for NAV, I think.


VNH's monthly update suggests the economy got off to a good start in 2024.

[arja] 21/2/2024 16:28

you are probably wiser than me Donald and chart does show a bottom of 441 in the tramline pattern . I sold today when it hit 445 seller but can alwaya re-enter if no better opportuniry . I quite like BME short term chart but it has a very high debt/equity ratio !!

[donald pond] 21/2/2024 15:53

I've bought in. Chart shows why, right at bottom of trend and tends to keep moving once it bounces