Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[shaker45] 13/11/2024 03:19

Very good overview of Vietnam on veil site yesterday

[dickbush] 12/11/2024 18:29

I've been both a trader and investor in the two Vietnam funds since early 2009. The normal range of the discount is 10-20%. So, 25% is somewhat high. However, in a bear market it can easily hit 30% or more as locals panic. That tends to not last very long and represents a great buying opportunity.

Unfortunately, right now the US Bond market seems to be weighing on everything except crypto where the high risk punters are playing. In such an environment the good, the bad and the ugly get hit.

Well done,shaker.

[yump] 12/11/2024 14:30

I’ve put a few £ in here - will give it a few years.

[aleman] 12/11/2024 13:52

You say extreme discount, It's large but not out of the ordinary.

Yes it is. It's not a record but rarely touched 25% in recent years if you knock out March 2020. 25% seemed to be the signal for it to bounce back each time. The more usual limit for a bounce was actually 22-23%.

h ttps://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/T/I161/vinacapital-vietnam-opportunity-ord-$001

P/E does look to have fallen a little. This is from the VEIL article:

Consequently, expected returns in Vietnam's equity market may lag earnings growth. While this risk is notable, the valuation of our Top-80 universe of stocks remains at 11.6x based on projected 2024 earnings, compared to the five-year historical average of 13.9x, suggesting limited room for further de-rating due to support from domestic investors seeking value.

[amt] 12/11/2024 12:55

You say extreme discount, It's large but not out of the ordinary.
What I don't understand with Vietnam is that profits of companies are often quoted at growing at 20% per annum and yet the market falls while at the same time the PE ratio for the market doesn't seem to fall.

[aleman] 12/11/2024 08:00

Discount here is now an extreme 25.2%. (434p v 580p)

[aleman] 12/11/2024 07:32

Interesting VEIL Q3 report:

[shaker45] 12/11/2024 03:30

Vnh often buys back at nav not share price Just cashed all mine in at a handsome profit and will reinvest at the next lull

[mike the mechanic] 11/11/2024 17:26

andyj
If both had similar assets but one is on a discount then surely you buy VOF as you have the opportunity to close the discount.

[aleman] 11/11/2024 16:03

Hanoi apartment market prices and volume strengthen further while HCMC apartment market volumes remain very low but prices rise.

[yump] 11/11/2024 10:13

Well if Vietnam does go into consistent growth it may not matter which fund to get looking at say a 5 year period.

[andyj] 11/11/2024 09:58

Yes I see now there's a difference. My claim was based on a meeting with a Vinacapital representative, who told ne they were identical, but that was in January.I assume VESAF trades at NAV whereas VOF has a sizeable discount. Additionally VESAF has exit costs. Difficult to decide which to invest in..

[cheap investor] 11/11/2024 09:11

Thank you for drawing my attention to VESAF.

I just checked the factsheets for VOF and VESAF (September 2024).

They don't have the same holdings. For example, ACB is top of the VOF list at 13.9% and it is at just 4.7% in VESAF.

More interestingly, they also have different metrics reported on their monthly documents.
VESAF give us PE,PB, ROE, yield, portfolio turnover, Sharpe ratio & number of equities. All in a nice table.
VOF hide the PE in the text & I don't see PB, ROE or yield.

I prefer the VESAF format.

[hericsaba] 11/11/2024 08:25

Half of the explanation is GBP vs Vietnamese Dong exchange rate. But still a big difference!

[andyj] 11/11/2024 05:22

Intriguingly VESAF which is the Vietnamese version of this fund for locals and expats, is up 19% since January. Same holdings...

[arja] 09/11/2024 06:49

Foreverbull,
Charting is certainly not an exact science but next best thing to a crystal ball :) . it seems to me that VOF has good support at about 325 level and so quite close to support . I do short stocks using CFDs sometimes but not an investment trust trading at such a steep discount to NAV for obvious reasons as much better opportunities elsewhere, eg BME . good luck with VOF if you hold stock and hope it does turn decisively around for you soon. I must check the charts for Vietnam indices as VOF will follow their trend normally .

[arja] 09/11/2024 06:39

Well 31337, he is a proven liar in mould of Johnson and let's hope it is another one :)

[31337 c0d3r] 08/11/2024 11:53

When it comes to 'the art of the deal' Trump is Van Gogh.

When he declares tariffs on every country, he's just strengthening his hand ahead of negotiations. It's not going to happen.

[shaker45] 08/11/2024 11:47

I agree spangle. And maybe now he has power and doesn't need the rhetoric, he will become aware that Fortress USA is bad for usa. Tariffs are inflationary, and 95%+ of global population live outside usa, representing a great export market- which a trade war will suppress.
Net, I don't see much for vietnam to fear

[spangle93] 08/11/2024 11:29

I think you're a bit broad brush with "trump win is a mini disaster for emerging markets".

The graph of BRFI indicates that it's more country-specific

[foreverbull] 08/11/2024 11:15

Thanks Arja- any further insights from your technical interpretation from charts please? What it takes to break the downtrend? Bottom etc?

[arja] 08/11/2024 11:05

yes , a huge discount to NAV but chart suggests it is warranted as VOF is in a clear downtrend and likely to continue . TRUMP win is a mini disaster for emerging markets i guess !

[amt] 08/11/2024 10:15

and yet the market continues to fall.
Time for a bit of realism

[aleman] 08/11/2024 09:15

Another excellent quarter sees market aggregate earnings beat forecasts from earlier in the year of 15-20%. Next year's forecasts seem to be edging to the top end of 15-20%.



In terms of market cap, the VN30 Index constituents (comprising the 30 largest blue chips on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange) were the earnings leaders, posting a 22% increase in Q3. Earnings by mid-caps and small-caps grew 14.6% and 21%, respectively

[amt] 08/11/2024 08:34

You guys seem to be perpetually optimistic despite the falling share price
On the face of it everything looks rosy and Trumps threats over China should have been a positive for Vietnam.
Foreigners continue to sell.
The continuing fall in the markets indicate to me that the truth is that this is a very high risk market and only a place to have a small holding. Clearly when you dig deeper there are many problems below the surface which are discouraging investment.