Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[andyj] 15/12/2020 12:22

It is utterly pointless you reading anything I write as you are apparently incapable of understanding it Mr Shaker, let alone forming a coherent argument. You keep dreaming and keep those rose tinted spectacles safely on!

[shaker44] 15/12/2020 11:56

Hahaha. Some of us are closer than you think Andy. And any dummy can pick a point in time to play down a rise. Some of us have more than doubled our VOF investment in a much shorter period of timr. And enjoyed a significant rise since you advised against a few months back. The ftse was far higher many years ago but who cares? Totally irrelevant today

[andyj] 15/12/2020 11:55

Although debating with people unable to understand that others may have differing opinions is depressingly familiar, here for the record are the summary of my posts here:In Nov 2019 I sold my holding at 3.40 having lost confidence following the Ba Huan debacle and being unnerved by the continuation preferring to pay a high dividend rather than reinvest.In February 2020 I warned that the virus was a serious threat to SE Asian economies.In April 2020 I posted regular updates on the apparent control the authorities had and said in several posts that an opportunity to buy could be forthcoming. I did not buy as my business interests here are more closely aligned with the economy than VOFs and the risk reward ratio of an incestuous investment was unappealing.In August 2020 after a recovery to 330, I indeed cautioned that I would not be buying at that level. At every point I reiterated the Vietnamese economy has tremendous long term growth potential. I would not be here otherwise. Since August it has risen further. So you can pick and choose your timeframe, but until you realise paper profits or losses you cannot claim to have been right or wrong.

[andyj] 15/12/2020 11:00

Hahaha. The massive rise of 20% in 14 years? I will leave it to you armchair experts 9000km away to count your faraway chickens.Good luck and goodbye all.

[amt] 15/12/2020 10:28

Andgj Yes of course there are risks but to put those into context you have to compare some of the risks to what is happening in the rest of the world.
Tourism will return to normal once a high proportion of the population have been vaccinated. That is the same everywhere.
The risk of a serious outbreak will go away again with vaccines.
Your judgement on the fund has been wrong so far and you missed out on a huge increase in nav both short term and longterm.

[shaker44] 15/12/2020 10:13

Lucky to have an expert on so many things-- including the VOF share price - warning us all when the share price was far lower. I for one will ignore

[andyj] 15/12/2020 09:30

FWIW Dung is pronounced similar to Youm and Phuc similar to Fooc. I agree with a lot of the reasons for potential here, but there are caveats. 1. There is no sign of tourism returning in the foreseeable future. Vietnam is in a way a victim of its success in coping so well with the virus. It now cannot risk undoing all of the hard work by reopening the borders. Unemployment is rising, as is the non payment of bad debts and the surge in violent crime continues. 2. As stated before, you are not investing in the Vietnamese economy, you are investing in companies chosen by VOF. A rise in one does not guarantee a rise in the other. 3. So far the authorities have contained the outbreaks, but it remains to be seen if that can continue. A widespread outbreak would have a devastating impact on the country. Before those of you in the West lament or or praise why Vietnam has been more successful than your country, there is one crucial difference. Here, all contacts of a positive case are forcibly incarcerated for however long the authorities deem necessary. That and that alone, is the difference.

[lageraemia] 14/12/2020 13:16

I heard that the chap running the Korean Opportunities Fund is Sum Yung Guy

[johnwig] 14/12/2020 13:02

amt. Hmm... So we have a Mr Phuc and a Mr Dung involved in all this! Be careful that you don't let the cat out of the bag and attract unwelcome attention from the ADVFN trolls. They will run riot when they read that press release.

I've now got some quite large positions in VOF and VEIL and we don't want to be fighting off thick trolls who revel especially in a fresh bit of Dung. Let's keep all this to ourselves shall we? LOL LOL

[amt] 14/12/2020 07:22

Strange the discount on Vof is approx 15% vs 8% on Veil.
I wonder with very few funds already invested in Vietnam if these can go to a lower discount.

[amt] 11/12/2020 11:44

Oh yes and Liz Truss is there today tying up loose ends to a trade deal with virtually zero tariffs with UK. Follows on from the EU trade deal signed a few weeks ago.
The most comprehensive trade deal with any developing country.

[amt] 11/12/2020 08:40

Discount 15%.
Should do well if pound falls Brexit debacle.
Vietnam economy growing strongly despite Pandemic which has been the best controlled of any country other than a few islands.
Politically stable.
On the verge of being classified as emerging markets rather than Frontier, so I understand.
Young population of entrepreneurs and extremely hard working and very nice people
Pe ratio much lower than most countries.
Steadily rising non volatile stock market.
Biden likely to be non confrontational.
Manufacturing moving there from China
Gdp per capita a fraction of W economies so much growth to come in the next decade
Buying its own shares to reduce the discount.
Oil price recovering
Downside tourism has been non existent this year but let's hope it bounces back next year but will depend on vaccines.
DYOR

[steve73] 30/11/2020 15:04

But that's WHY you only get the odd case showing up.. Thailand is similar - not quite as good though.

[andyj] 30/11/2020 14:50

We panic here when we get one case! https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20201130/vietnam-announces-first-community-case-of-covid19-after-nearly-3-months/58041.html?fbclid=IwAR1ApAaHkZ4-U3hryIXSpORa1GZoOJ_O7mAi8BNRJTDd4PNjLiHKA8M-R4I

[dickbush] 25/11/2020 13:05

I make the discount about 11.5%. Thank you Tempus. This is probably the right time to let some go given that level of discount and the Vietnam market knocking at the door of 1,000, but I'm just going to hold for the long, long term development of Vietnam.

[johnwig] 25/11/2020 12:57

This has progressed very nicely since the March nadir, as has VEIL. I hold both in decent quantities and because I am, for my sins, a patient investor I love steady growers like these. It looks as if there is a long way to go again up ahead. Vietnam, for all the known faults of the regime, seems to be much more stable than most frontier/emerging market countries. I can believe that if it is eventually promoted in classification to "emerging" rather than the current "frontier" we would see a pronounced rise in both ITs.

It was interesting that the Tempus article interpreted the current USA/China discord as being favourable to Vietnam's development. I don't think that the article exactly got the Covid effects correctly, though.

[dickbush] 19/11/2020 11:47

Assuming the fund performed in line with the 1% increase in the market today, the discount is 20% at 370p.

The index is less than 2% from 1,000. I assume we are going to see some round number-itis at that level.

[shaker44] 17/11/2020 02:02

I agree. Don't see much downside just yet

[steve73] 17/11/2020 01:46

Getting close to the all time high of 365 from early 2018, which I'd expect to be an easy take-out with all the recent QE, AND the relative lack of effects of Covid on VN.

Now is not the time to sell.... IMHO.

[dickbush] 16/11/2020 22:12

lageraemia, I understand that many of the shares in Vietnam have restrictions on the percentage that can be held by foreign investors, and that this is a major concern of MSCI in the context of its willingness to move Vietnam into the Emerging Markets Index. However,I read a little while ago that the Vietnamese authorities are going to look at easing the restrictions early next year. What exactly "early" means is anyone's guess, but the direction of travel on this key issue is clearly positive.

[lageraemia] 16/11/2020 13:50

Esepcially with the nice discount to NAV providing a risk buffer.....

[shaker44] 16/11/2020 12:10

I am so overweight here now I should top slice but don't really want to. Bought at 144p so they have done me very well. Feel sure there is more to come