Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[dickbush] 16/11/2020 09:59

I checked seven Far East markets today, including Australia as one of the participants in the massive trade deal. The average rise was 1.5%. Vietnam FELL 1.6% and I can't find any news to explain it. VOF up as I write despite this. I can only assume that someone is using VOF as a vehicle to get their weighting up in the rebased Frontier Market Index.

One for the patient as we await its transfer to the Emerging Markets Index.

[amt] 13/11/2020 07:54

Good spot. The discount is still 18% vs Veil 8%. Given the paucity of trusts investing in Vietnam I would expect both to be at premiums.
Vietnam stock market and economy performing very well despite the Pandemic and looking very cheap. Plenty of upside in my opinion. DYOR

[dickbush] 12/11/2020 10:06

I think I’ve found the reason for the big move in VOF:

[dickbush] 10/11/2020 20:40

Great day today but why?

[andyj] 30/10/2020 08:24

You are right that my scepticism about VOF being the best way to invest here has not changed. Exactly a year ago I posted my concerns about their investments. Neither has my views changed over the long term potential here. What has changed is an awareness of the growing height of hurdles between here and there.

[shaker44] 30/10/2020 01:55

I thought the same from what I saw until I travelled many hours to the many places where tourists were uncommon. And spoke with local business people. Unaffected.
The small amount of any ecoomy any of us can actually see is not an accurate sample or indicatir. But I realise your views won't change.
Glass half empty as ever

[andyj] 30/10/2020 00:04

In a country where all news is very carefully managed I prefer to trust what I see rather than what I read. You believe what you want. There is no conflict of opinion in what I said.

[shaker44] 29/10/2020 14:17

No one is denying the potential?? 'do not underestimate the impact of the absence of tourism here' really?!
Glass half empty again Andy?

[andyj] 29/10/2020 12:27

No one is denying the potential of Vietnam, but it is only the potential of the businesses chosen by VOF that matter. The combined value of which is marginally higher than it was 13 years ago.

[shaker44] 29/10/2020 10:49

Tourism in VN was only about 8% of gdp. Rather higher in Thailand but there, many have adjusted. Left the tourist cities to return to subsistence living in villages. Thailand new car sales last month only down 4% y-on-y surprisingly. Outside tourist sector, vietnam benefits from sino-trump spat, and its more educated workforce and more business friendly environment wins inward investment against Thailand hands down. Markets are relative and relative to very many other countries VN is and will be in a sweet spot. No worries here

[andyj] 29/10/2020 10:18

I will wait for an ETF that captures the potential of the Vietnamese market. I have to admit that I agree with the concerns of Caradog below.The recent eye catching announcements of great potential growth next year assume that Vietnam avoids a resurgence of the virus whilst reopening the borders. That requires a significant leap of faith. From my standpoint here I see a country suddenly wondering if the dreams of prosperity that provided the engine for growth will ever come true, when all around unemployment and violent crime is surging and businesses are failing. Do not underestimate the impact of the absence of tourism here.

[hiddendepths] 28/10/2020 16:27

Caradog - what would you suggest instead?

[lageraemia] 27/10/2020 08:46

I suspect they are postioning for Vietnam's new 'Emerging Market' status next year.

VOF is in pole position as the oldest trust on the market to attract the more conservative money when 'emerging market funds' look to include an exposure to Vietnam. A good steady dividend, share price growth and a history of buy backs will catch the eye of the cautious.

I do however, completely get your point Caradog and can't fault your logic.

[caradog] 27/10/2020 07:52

I sold my holding for exactly the same reason! An emerging market trust, especially one with “opportunity” in its name should, in my view, be looking for early growth companies. I don’t see much point in risking investment in an emerging market for yield. I could get this with less risk elsewhere. There must be huge potential in Vietnam, and giving cash to shareholders doesn’t seem the best way to exploit that potential.

[lageraemia] 26/10/2020 17:31

I like the policy of maintaining the divdend AND guying back hatfuls of shares.

[digitaria] 26/10/2020 16:39

Dividend declaration
- 5.5 US cents per share (same as last year)
- Payment date 25 November 2020
- ex-dividend date 5th November 2020

[dickbush] 23/10/2020 11:49

The Vietnam market hit a new rally high today. I think this, which came out on Wednesday has improved sentiment:

The sentiment of foreign investors, not global providers of financial services such as FTSE Russell and MSCI, is the key factor to decide whether Vietnam’s stock market can be upgraded to Emerging Market status, according to Ta Thanh Binh, head of the market Development Department at the State Securities Commission (SSC). Even when Vietnam completes finalizing the legal framework and meets nine out of nine criteria, it does not mean the country’s stockmarket is automatically upgraded, said Mrs. Binh at a conference held by the Securities Economic Magazine on October 21 to discuss the potential of Vietnam’s stock market in the post-Covid-19 period.

Vietnam is currently in the Frontier Market group, and was added to the FTSE Russell’s watchlist for possible upgrade to Secondary Emerging Market in September 2018. However, after one year of review, Vietnam only met seven out of the nine criteria of FTSE. It takes time for foreign investors to study the new regulations and change their perception of the Vietnam’s stock market, while none of the information that FTSE Russell and MSCI obtain from the Vietnamese market is accurate or updated, she added. From her own personal view, Mrs. Binh suggested all major concerns of foreign investors for the local stock market would be addressed in the upcoming laws and regulations, including the revised Securities Law, scheduled to take effect in early 2021.

On the prospect of Vietnam’s stock market in the short term, Le Duc Khanh, director of the Investment Department under VPS Securities Company, said the benchmark VN-Index has been recovering strongly since its March bottom that marked a 25% slump. Since April, liquidity in the market has surged 35 – 40% against last year, Mr. Khanh noted, adding this would be a major factor that helps the stock market go upward in the coming time. In addition to a number of industries and sectors that are expected to record positive performance, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s decision to keep low policy rates would lead to more cash into the stock market, asserted Mr. Khanh. According to Mr. Khanh, the VN-Index could return to 980 – 1000 points by the end of 2020 and continue to pick up in 2021.

[amt] 15/10/2020 12:26

Vietnam stock market making good progress. It seems to go up when rest of the World is falling. Looking good in the months ahead

[digitaria] 13/10/2020 12:46

September report available at hxxps://vof.vinacapital.com/monthly-factsheets/.

"With over a month of zero community infections and no further COVID-related deaths recorded, the Vietnam Index (VNI) brushed off concerns of the second wave of COVID-19 communal infection that appeared in Danang in late July."

[dickbush] 11/10/2020 12:46

Vietnam is expected to be the best-performing economy in the Southeast Asian region, driven by its economic strength and resilience, QNB has said in its weekly economic commentary.

Early and efficient border closures and rigorous contact tracing allowed Vietnam to weather the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic better than most, QNB noted. However, an outbreak in Danang city during the summer caused a second wave of infections.
Fortunately, the Vietnamese focus on contract tracing has enabled the authorities to bring the virus back under control with minimal disruption to the economy.
Official data for Q3, 2020 shows GDP growing 2.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), which is even stronger than QNB expected earlier in the year.

Vietnam’s strong recovery has been driven by three key factors: successfully containing the spread of Covid-19, resilient exports and support from fiscal and to a greater extent monetary policy.

[hydrogen economy] 04/10/2020 07:49

FT reporting that US is launching an investigation of Vietnamese currency manipulation. Lighthizer said "unfair currency practices can harm US workers and businesses that may be artificially lower priced because of currency undervaluation. A rule introduced this year enables duties to be imposed if Vietnam is found to be manipulating its currency, something it has already done with China.

US launched a separate investigation into us of illegal timber timber in wood products exported to the US which "harms the environment and is unfair to US workers and businesses" This rather suggests the US furniture industry lobby has been pushing on both counts. I hardly think Fx is the only factor making US manufacturers uncompetitive.

Vn does manage the Dong to moderate change against the dollar, and has been one of the least volatile of late, something the many US Companies who have invested here no doubt appreciate.

The Dong has indeed devalued around 9% against the USD since 2015, but then again the GBP is down 16.5% so UK had better watch out.

I expect an inexplicable rise in VND until after the investigation is complete, worth buying some, the deposit rate is a heck of a lot higher than USD

[andyj] 03/10/2020 10:21

Better news ahead?https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/business/20201003/vietnam-economy-poised-to-expand-81-in-2021-hsbc/57078.html?fbclid=IwAR0d5rDc3SzC97XsKmDuWw5Kp_kq7jt3smNhI45a1fU6YyvAg5aCW-Ua4Gc