Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[shaker44] 29/7/2020 12:01

Vn down 2.8% today but I have seen a year end forecast of +15%. The 8 new covid today were all clusters around the same hospital.
If you are a trader you might sweat the daily moves bus as an investor, I only want to assess if the upside is greater than the downside over time. So I am a buyer at these levels.

[digitaria] 29/7/2020 11:19

And the announced NAV has bounced up a little today. Discount to NAV now about 18%.

[shaker44] 29/7/2020 02:10

Nice bounce in VN index yesterday +3.6%

[andyj] 29/7/2020 01:28

Now a further 22 cases, currently all in the Danang area. The country is waiting anxiously to see if it spreads outside the region. If it does you will get greater 'bargains' ahead. Personally I would not add at this point.

[shaker44] 28/7/2020 12:00

No intention of selling! More likely to buy at these bargain prices!!

[digitaria] 28/7/2020 11:26

Big drop in the NAV today. I have sold half of my holding, but with a view to buying back in later.

[steve73] 27/7/2020 14:29

Seems a bit OTT, but then this is how they have managed the numbers..

[shaker44] 27/7/2020 12:16

4 cases, 700+ contacts tested-all negative. Vn govt all over this far more so than any other country except China. Of course locals are nervous and of course it affects sentiment, but a drop of almost 10% in VN index looks a tad overdone. Buying opportunity imo, but we will see what emerges over the coming days. False negative tests are common...

[shaker44] 26/7/2020 17:12

We should be grateful the second ripple is only 4 cases. Need to await results of their contacts tests. In Thailand recently one infected egyptian airman in quarantine went rogue, visiting Malls with his party. 7000 possible contacts tested. So far, ALL negative

[royaloak] 24/7/2020 19:54

hydrogen economy

Many thanks for that excellent round up, the information is very useful, I will examine it in more detail over the weekend, it's very much appreciated.

[hydrogen economy] 24/7/2020 17:18

royaloak
VND is interesting, historically it was seen as very weak, but over last 20+ years Government has had a managed exchange targeted to limit the change against USD (I think to below about 3.5% per year). Since Jan 2000, average devaluation is 2.5%, but much of that occurred during the GFC. VN needs to balance the benefits of low VND for exports against inflation effect for imported goods and risk US calls it out as a currency manipulator.

VN has been reducing interest rates like most countries, which would normally cause currency to weaken but many countries have cut further, retail bank term deposits are around 6.5% down from over 7% in Q1.

VND dipped Vs USD at start of COVID but has dipped back to Q1 level, currently 23180, that was probably more about a USD safe haven effect. Vinacapital put out an excellent note on Fx during the crisis.

www.vinacapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Economist-Note-on-VND-Depreciation-23-March-2020.pdf

GBP has been much more volatile than VND, especially since Brexit. Many commentators are predicting USD to weaken having distributed several trillion in stimulus and bail-outs, so VND may if anything strengthen but I doubt Govt would allow that to go too far too fast.

[andyj] 24/7/2020 14:18

I am afraid tonight we just had the first case of what appears to be community transmission in 99 days. Tested positive in Danang and they are tracing all contacts, but he recently attended a wedding...

[caradog] 22/7/2020 10:17

With no immunity in the population, Vietnam has to be extremely vigilant about any imported infection.

They have had astounding success when you consider that they have had zero Covid deaths, while the “advanced̶1; UK has probably seen more deaths in 3 months than the number of civilians killed by the Luftwaffe in 6 years of WW2.

Hats off to the Vietnamese!

[shaker44] 21/7/2020 15:06

So what isn't true??? Please be more clear!

[andyj] 21/7/2020 14:52

Not quite true. No community transmission for a couple of months now. All cases since have been quarantined on arrival. After a mandatory two weeks, they home isolate and are checked by officials randomly. Please check facts!

[shaker44] 21/7/2020 08:35

Only 12, all returners in quarantine. Very very very low risk in Vietnam. Less than 400 cases in total and no deaths

[cfro] 21/7/2020 08:15

Infection cases still rising here.

[royaloak] 17/7/2020 12:44

I bought in here after seeing Michael Portillo's Asian railways, I was very impressed with what I saw. Looking at the comments on here you guys have much more expertise about the country than I have. I would be interested to hear your views on the currency also, as I expect the British £ to be at risk because of the situation we are now in, many thanks in anticipation.

[andyj] 13/7/2020 06:12

I can think of worse places to be trapped! The key is how VOF investments are affected by the absence of tourists. Local consumption has recovered somewhat but IMO nowhere near the levels seen in January. Take a look at the link below for the damage being done to consumers spending ability. Longer term, Vietnam could recover more quickly than our neighbour's, but the risks currently outweigh the rewards.

[shaker44] 12/7/2020 04:03

I have a friend who lives in Thailand who 'escaped' to Da Nang in February to avoid annual smokey season in Chiang Mai. Now he is still trapped in Da Nang he thinks until September! No way in to Thailand. But Vietnam is far less dependent on tourism than Thailand.
I think the share price may drift but as a long term holder I am happy to stay invested.
Congratulations to VN government for their tight effective covid management. And I assume exports and local consumption is picking up again now.

[andyj] 12/7/2020 03:30

Just an update from here. The share price remains fairly static and hovering around where it was before the virus became a pandemic. Whilst life in Vietnam has returned to almost normal with shopping centres, restaurants and leisure businesses busy again, wander into a tourist area and you see a near ghost town and the impact is spreading outwards from those businesses directly impacted like airports, hotels and airlines to restaurant chains, taxis and the service industry. https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20200712/vietnam-says-31-million-workers-impacted-by-pandemic-risk-of-rising-unemployment/55544.htmlThere are no plans yet to allow tourists in without quarantine and with few wanting to spend two weeks locked in an army camp, the immediate future is worryingly grim. And that's without the virus returning!My view remains that longer term Vietnam is a fantastic investment, but in the short term the downside risks are mounting. I would not buy at this price.

[shaker44] 10/7/2020 09:10

I was thinking more of businesses exiting HK seeking local safe havens which are business friendly. Unlike Thailand for example

[steve73] 10/7/2020 08:54

Chinese funds have had a pretty good month whilst VN funds have stagnated.

My guess it that China has been seen to respond well (aggressively) to CV 2nd wave threats, whereas VN has still not had need to put such aggressive measures into place So the question are they able to respond has not yet been asked or answered.

bwtfdik...

[shaker44] 10/7/2020 08:44

Any thoughts on whether Hong Kong situation is positive or negative for Vietnam. Or neutral...