Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[andyj] 18/4/2020 07:53

Hope and Caution The hope... https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20200418/vietnam-reports-no-new-covid19-case-for-two-days-straight/54095.htmlThere is growing optimism that Vietnam can incredibly avoid a widespread outbreak. Plans are being made to return to normal gradually and that normality will be fully resumed by June. The caution...https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/business/20200418/over-1500-ho-chi-minh-city-firms-dissolved-in-q1-2020/54089.htmlThere can be little doubt that this has had a devastating affect on the spending power of many. There might be a surge of euphoria to celebrate reopening, but what then? It is hard to see the holdings in Phu Nhuan jewellery or Vinamilk being a priority in people's spending plans.Closing the borders has undoubtedly been significant in preventing the virus, but how and when will those vital tourists return? It is possible that they reopen with a quarantine period, but a 14 day quarantine in a Vietnamese army camp will deter tourists. The alternative of letting them in, risks a surge of the virus into a country with zero immunity. The investment in Vietnam airports could suffer for many months. We are not out of the woods yet.

[andyj] 18/4/2020 07:40

Yes I think they meant a nine dollar fine rather than a nine month jail sentence!

[hydrogen economy] 17/4/2020 06:41

Andy

Interesting article, but even articles of praise can't resist the myths,

"Those who break the rules in this one-party communist state are treated harshly. One man was jailed on a nine-month sentence for failing to wear a mask."

Very harsh, but why as the law only specifies a 200k ($8.60) fine?

In the link and it gets clearer:-

Tran Van Manh, 24, received a nine-month jail term in the northern province of Thai Binh six days after he beat officers in charge of health control when they asked him to wear a face mask.


Meanwhile VOF continues its recovery despite last week's 5.5c dividend payout.

[andyj] 17/4/2020 01:25

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/16/835748673/in-vietnam-there-have-been-fewer-than-300-covid-19-cases-and-no-deaths-heres-why

[shaker44] 16/4/2020 09:00

I agree Andy. Naturally everyone is suspicious of the numbers but when you are on the spot you have a much better feel for it. If govt was covering up mass deaths the stories of body bags etc would spread around social media like wildfire. Very similar in Thailand.
Covid doesn't like heat above 65c. Temps in the sun often reach 55 in Vietnam/ Thailand. Surfaces in the sun get far hotter than 55 of course.
The climate has more to do with the low numbers, and as a study of this in Indonesia recently observed, people's immunity is lower in countries with cold winters/spring.
But as you say, folk must make up their own minds about the numbers. But try to make informed decisions.

[hydrogen economy] 16/4/2020 08:13

cfro

Should the fire brigade go for lunch when they've finally got the forest fire is down to a small one?

[andyj] 15/4/2020 16:05

As far as I am concerned the more people that distrust the figures the better. It is not in my personal or financial interest to convince anyone, so feel free to read the links I have posted and trust them or not as you wish.

[cfro] 15/4/2020 15:38

Sorry to be argumentative but "if" the general consensus is that the Vietnamese gov is not lying about the official figures and the number of cases is indeed micro low plus they have a fix on who is currently infected, then why do they need to extend social distancing?

[andyj] 15/4/2020 14:22

Very well said hydrogen economy. I think there is a general and growing distrust in the numbers emanating from Vietnam and the advantage of living here is that we see the transparency of the authorities, which engenders trust. I think that could create a situation that we and those who trust, can take advantage of. Btw enhanced social distancing has been extended by one week http://news.chinhphu.vn/Home/Govt-extends-social-distancing-for-at-least-one-week-in-highrisk-localities/20204/39735.vgp

[cfro] 15/4/2020 14:20

Contact tracing cannot be 100% effective. It is now proven that anyone (mainly the young) can be a carrier and not even know it. Therefore in theory the virus is already spreading fast before it shows itself.

VN News is, i believe, government controlled. In fact every piece of news that goes out is and that is why i dont believe any of it.

Re the point made about Vietnam shutting borders in early Feb: Certainly earlier than Europe or the US yes but we know now that as China was lying the virus has been around much longer than they stated. Some as saying as early as last August. No way did the Virus stay out of Vietnam in that time.

What we have here now is lack of trust. That said im very sceptical that business between East and West will return to anything like normal when this crisis is over. There will be a total rethink by the West imo.

[steve73] 15/4/2020 12:33

I was working in HCMC in 2009 during the H1N1 outbreak. The young son of one of my work colleagues was at a school where one pupil was diagnosed positive. Result was the school was shutdown, ALL pupils and their immediate families were subjected to 14 -day home quarantine, and all THEIR contacts (i.e. including me) were advised accordingly and told to watch for any signs of infection. Fortunately my colleague's family were all OK, and there was no further problems where I worked. But I was impressed with the contact tracing and the subsequent quarantine/monitoring of 2nd & 3rd level potentials at risk.

I realise that this Coronavirus is much more infectious than H1N1, but the VN health systems, and the general population were well prepared for this latest outbreak, and I'm sure this will have helped limit the numbers. Obviously as the country opens back up there will be additional risks, but I would expect to see them aggressively controlling their borders, arrivals, and general population as and when this occurs.

Because of the current low rate of infections, it may take much longer for the so-called "herd-immunity" and this might lead to international restrictions for much longer than other countries, but it shouldn't affect either domestic or international trade too much.

I'm happy to remain invested here, and please keep the up-to-date local reports coming....

[cfro] 15/4/2020 07:38

It's great to get reports from the ground, so thanks to Hydrogen Economy and andyj. I really am appreciative.

Im sorry though because i simply do not believe the figures coming out of Vietnam nor China for that instance.

At the current count they allegedly have less than 300 cases and no deaths yet they sit right next door to China and trade with them. Some questions then:
How come the virus initially spread like wild fire to Europe but allegedly then didnt to Vietnam? To potentially stop the virus in its tracks would have meant some kind of heads up from the Chinese government and an immediate closing of its borders which would have meant Christmas or early new year at the latest.

Contact tracing? A bit too good to be true. If someones got the virus how do the authorities really know? Is it possible to trace every single individual they made contact with? The virus is highly infectious so by the time you have contacted everyone (if thats at all possible) they would in turn continue to infect others.
A low figure of less than 300 would mean, in theory, that only initially 30 or 40 were infected that infected say 6 others each. With it ending there. Really hard to believe imo

[cfro] 14/4/2020 10:47

Appreciate your reports too Andyj.

Problem i have is i simply do not believe that their cases and deaths are so low... China's stats need to be taken with a large pinch of salt..

The other problem is that with China/Vietnam being the workshop of the world it is impossible to open their economies back up again which at this rate could be many more months..

[martindjzz] 14/4/2020 10:02

Andy, I too am appreciative. I have been holding VOF since 2016 and whilst I culled plenty of other holdings in Feb and March, VOF was one of several where I added to my position.

[ashbox] 12/4/2020 18:51

Yes, thanks for the updates Andy. Always read them with interest.

[robsy2] 12/4/2020 12:23

Likewise . I read your ‘ man in nam’ posts with great interest. The Vietnamese are an impressive bunch, on the side at the mo but ready to get back in.
Best

[kenmitch] 12/4/2020 10:30

Hi Andy

I also find your updates very useful, so please keep doing them.

I switched from VOF to VNH a few months ago as a bit concerned at VOF increasing unlisted Companies. But since switching VOF has done better.

So perhaps wrong to be concerned about that VOF tactic, with my decision too influenced by Woodford shambles? After all as with quoted shares there is unlisted quality and unlisted rubbish, and Woodford was a genius at finding the rubbish!!

[tournesol] 12/4/2020 08:57

Hi Andy

well there is at least one person here reading your reports and finding them very informative too.

I appreciate and am grateful for you taking time and trouble to keep the rest of us in the loop.

I visited VN for the first time a few years ago and was very impressed by the energy, grit and work ethic of the people. That was why I invested here. I'm presently 100% in cash and waiting for the right time to re-enter the market, so your reports are very helpful.


Thank you.

T

[andyj] 12/4/2020 08:32

Not sure anyone is still reading these updates, but anyway if anyone is...We are now approaching the end (Wednesday) of our enforced social distancing period and due to the hard work of the authorities (as listed below) new cases have fallen to a trickle, with no new cases in Saigon for over a week. During this period the government has agreed to pump money into the economy and Vietnam has signed a free trade deal with Europe. They might extend the social distancing period, but as yet there is no evidence of community spread. This is a position that the rest of the world will envy and I doubt that it is widely known or trusted by the west yet. My opinion is that restrictions will be lifted gradually and with the borders completely closed the economy could well be the first to fully resume in the region if not the world. I suspect that after the rallies over the last weeks the markets will take profits or head lower, possibly much lower as they realise how difficult it is to get rid of the virus. And I suspect the VNI will track lower in sympathy. However, Vietnam could find itself in a very good position to take businesses from across the region, as the factsheet from VOF points out. I suspect this combination will offer an excellent opportunity to buy in here at a current 20% discount. VEIL who's companies I prefer are at a 10% discount. Preparing to buy...

[andyj] 05/4/2020 10:31

And more. There have been several cases recently that authorities were unable trace the source of. As a result we are five days into a fifteen day lockdown and from what I can see...no one is moving. The aim is to flush out any cases and so far so good...http://news.chinhphu.vn/Home/VN-has-no-new-COVID19-infections-for-first-time-in-a-month/20204/39557.vgp

[andyj] 28/3/2020 14:46

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietnam-certain-covid-19-cases-will-not-rise-to-1-000-4075849.htmlEncouraging news.