Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[amt] 25/5/2020 07:25

Why is VOF at 25% discount. Vietnam stock market seems to be gaining momentum in recent days. Looks a good bet vs China.

[shaker44] 22/5/2020 06:05

Afterthought: considering VEIL as an alternative to adding more VOF. Thoughts?

[shaker44] 22/5/2020 05:44

Looks a good recovery play. Business friendly. Oversold. Panasonic moving some manufacturing to Vietnam from Thailand. Apple from China. High visibility moves likely to be emulated imo.
Alternative views welcome!

[andyj] 15/5/2020 00:50

No need to be alarmed by the recent jump in infections, they are repatriated Vietnamese quarantined on arrival.

[andyj] 05/5/2020 12:14

Interesting rumours https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/business/20200505/apples-job-listings-in-hanoi-saigon-fuel-rumor-of-vietnam-plant/54401.html

[hydrogen economy] 04/5/2020 09:40

Yesterday Telegraph on Vietnam - World’s most successful nation in tackling Covid-19 is cautiously lifting social distancing measures and restrictions on movement

[andyj] 29/4/2020 16:34

Highlights of the first quarter.http://news.chinhphu.vn/Home/Highlights-of-socioeconomic-in-first-four-months/20204/39929.vgpIn the past week Vietnam has sprang out of lockdown with a vengeance. The idea of a gradual reopening has been decidedly dismissed here in Saigon! Everything is open except schools (which return next week) and the streets are busy as ever. Most are wearing masks, but then many always have. There are internal flights, but the borders remain closed. The problem of welcoming tourists back remains a stumbling block. It is possible (just my opinion) that they reopen selectively. Korean and Chinese tourists were the first to be stopped and maybe the first to return. We will see. The fund now sits at a surprising 25% discount to NAV, amongst the highest in the past five years. For reasons previously given I remain on the sidelines here.

[hydrogen economy] 23/4/2020 14:39

Vietnam Banks were being talked up today on CNBC by JP Morgan, preferred to any other banks in region due to strong clean-up of banks, strong profitability and Vietnam's early emergence from COVID lockdown. (That's not something I would have expected to hear a few years back!).

Foreign ownership still holds back valuations but expect this to be relaxed leading to re-rate.

VEIL have 4 Banks in the top 10 holdings and 25.7% of total holding.
VOF Only Eximbank in top 10.



Encouraging to see the COVID relaxation being flagged as a positive for the economy on CNBC, there are few other places for investors to go at present.

[andyj] 23/4/2020 05:05

Vietnam has now finished the lockdown period. With no new infections for 6 days, non essential businesses are reopening today.

[amt] 22/4/2020 08:26

Vietnam seem to be the Exemplar country to quote what Jenny Harris said about UK

[amt] 22/4/2020 08:25

23% discount seems ridiculous

[hydrogen economy] 21/4/2020 09:10

It's 5 days since any COVID cases in Vietnam 10 days in HCMC which will relax some distancing rules from 23rd. April. Schools are currently expected to re-open on 3rd May for the first time since January.

Quarantine remains in place at the borders, the rapid action team remains in place to handle any new infection outside quarantine which would no doubt prompt a new lock-down.

[hydrogen economy] 21/4/2020 09:09

It's 5 days since any COVID cases in Vietnam 10 days in HCMC which will relax some distancing rules from 23rd. April. Schools are currently expected to re-open on 3rd May for the first time since January.

Quarantine remains in place at the borders, the rapid action team remains in place to handle any new infection outside quarantine which would no doubt prompt a new lock-down.

[panshanger1] 18/4/2020 08:25

Thanks andyj@ for the feedback

[andyj] 18/4/2020 07:53

Hope and Caution The hope... https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/20200418/vietnam-reports-no-new-covid19-case-for-two-days-straight/54095.htmlThere is growing optimism that Vietnam can incredibly avoid a widespread outbreak. Plans are being made to return to normal gradually and that normality will be fully resumed by June. The caution...https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/business/20200418/over-1500-ho-chi-minh-city-firms-dissolved-in-q1-2020/54089.htmlThere can be little doubt that this has had a devastating affect on the spending power of many. There might be a surge of euphoria to celebrate reopening, but what then? It is hard to see the holdings in Phu Nhuan jewellery or Vinamilk being a priority in people's spending plans.Closing the borders has undoubtedly been significant in preventing the virus, but how and when will those vital tourists return? It is possible that they reopen with a quarantine period, but a 14 day quarantine in a Vietnamese army camp will deter tourists. The alternative of letting them in, risks a surge of the virus into a country with zero immunity. The investment in Vietnam airports could suffer for many months. We are not out of the woods yet.

[andyj] 18/4/2020 07:40

Yes I think they meant a nine dollar fine rather than a nine month jail sentence!

[hydrogen economy] 17/4/2020 06:41

Andy

Interesting article, but even articles of praise can't resist the myths,

"Those who break the rules in this one-party communist state are treated harshly. One man was jailed on a nine-month sentence for failing to wear a mask."

Very harsh, but why as the law only specifies a 200k ($8.60) fine?

In the link and it gets clearer:-

Tran Van Manh, 24, received a nine-month jail term in the northern province of Thai Binh six days after he beat officers in charge of health control when they asked him to wear a face mask.


Meanwhile VOF continues its recovery despite last week's 5.5c dividend payout.

[andyj] 17/4/2020 01:25

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/16/835748673/in-vietnam-there-have-been-fewer-than-300-covid-19-cases-and-no-deaths-heres-why

[shaker44] 16/4/2020 09:00

I agree Andy. Naturally everyone is suspicious of the numbers but when you are on the spot you have a much better feel for it. If govt was covering up mass deaths the stories of body bags etc would spread around social media like wildfire. Very similar in Thailand.
Covid doesn't like heat above 65c. Temps in the sun often reach 55 in Vietnam/ Thailand. Surfaces in the sun get far hotter than 55 of course.
The climate has more to do with the low numbers, and as a study of this in Indonesia recently observed, people's immunity is lower in countries with cold winters/spring.
But as you say, folk must make up their own minds about the numbers. But try to make informed decisions.

[hydrogen economy] 16/4/2020 08:13

cfro

Should the fire brigade go for lunch when they've finally got the forest fire is down to a small one?

[andyj] 15/4/2020 16:05

As far as I am concerned the more people that distrust the figures the better. It is not in my personal or financial interest to convince anyone, so feel free to read the links I have posted and trust them or not as you wish.

[cfro] 15/4/2020 15:38

Sorry to be argumentative but "if" the general consensus is that the Vietnamese gov is not lying about the official figures and the number of cases is indeed micro low plus they have a fix on who is currently infected, then why do they need to extend social distancing?

[andyj] 15/4/2020 14:22

Very well said hydrogen economy. I think there is a general and growing distrust in the numbers emanating from Vietnam and the advantage of living here is that we see the transparency of the authorities, which engenders trust. I think that could create a situation that we and those who trust, can take advantage of. Btw enhanced social distancing has been extended by one week http://news.chinhphu.vn/Home/Govt-extends-social-distancing-for-at-least-one-week-in-highrisk-localities/20204/39735.vgp

[cfro] 15/4/2020 14:20

Contact tracing cannot be 100% effective. It is now proven that anyone (mainly the young) can be a carrier and not even know it. Therefore in theory the virus is already spreading fast before it shows itself.

VN News is, i believe, government controlled. In fact every piece of news that goes out is and that is why i dont believe any of it.

Re the point made about Vietnam shutting borders in early Feb: Certainly earlier than Europe or the US yes but we know now that as China was lying the virus has been around much longer than they stated. Some as saying as early as last August. No way did the Virus stay out of Vietnam in that time.

What we have here now is lack of trust. That said im very sceptical that business between East and West will return to anything like normal when this crisis is over. There will be a total rethink by the West imo.

[steve73] 15/4/2020 12:33

I was working in HCMC in 2009 during the H1N1 outbreak. The young son of one of my work colleagues was at a school where one pupil was diagnosed positive. Result was the school was shutdown, ALL pupils and their immediate families were subjected to 14 -day home quarantine, and all THEIR contacts (i.e. including me) were advised accordingly and told to watch for any signs of infection. Fortunately my colleague's family were all OK, and there was no further problems where I worked. But I was impressed with the contact tracing and the subsequent quarantine/monitoring of 2nd & 3rd level potentials at risk.

I realise that this Coronavirus is much more infectious than H1N1, but the VN health systems, and the general population were well prepared for this latest outbreak, and I'm sure this will have helped limit the numbers. Obviously as the country opens back up there will be additional risks, but I would expect to see them aggressively controlling their borders, arrivals, and general population as and when this occurs.

Because of the current low rate of infections, it may take much longer for the so-called "herd-immunity" and this might lead to international restrictions for much longer than other countries, but it shouldn't affect either domestic or international trade too much.

I'm happy to remain invested here, and please keep the up-to-date local reports coming....