Victoria Share Discussion Threads

[gabrieloak] 31/3/2018 22:13

If you note...I was explaining what a tree shake was...I did not suggest it had happened or that Invesco caused it.

I think a fully intentional tree shake is unlikely but it cannot be ruled out.

This was what came out last year on April 11th (trading update):

11 April 2017

For Immediate Release

Victoria PLC

('Victoria,' the 'Company,' or the 'Group')

Positive Full Year Trading Update

Trading Ahead of Market Expectations

Victoria PLC, (LSE: VCP) the international designers, manufacturers and distributors of innovative flooring, provides the following positive trading update. The Board is pleased to announce that the Group's underlying profits before tax will be comfortably ahead of current consensus market expectations for the financial year ending 1 April 2017.

etc

GO

[bouleversee] 30/3/2018 11:47

Gabrieloak -

Thanks for that. Do you mean by shorting? Are you suggesting that Invesco would tree shake? Are the results out on April 10?

[countryman5] 30/3/2018 11:06

I assume that the two largest shareholders control the company. Are they talking to each other? Do they have an agenda?

[gabrieloak] 29/3/2018 17:25

Tree shake: Pushing the price lower to ignite fear, compound that fear and drive the price lower...which in turn drives the price lower still...the cynic says that this is a classic technique to loose shares from the hands of unwitting investors who sell in a panic to those who know / are betting (normally market participants like market makers) that there is nothing wrong and that the company is round the corner going to be announcing that all is well! (usually on 10th April)...

This does happen (normally on a much smaller basis) though in this case it would take some serious engineering and there was also a buyer out there mopping up.

GO

[bouleversee] 29/3/2018 16:37

OK. I only rec'd the alert this afternoon. Could you please explain exactly what is meant by the expression "tree shake" in this context.

[nivison] 29/3/2018 16:06

Invesco still buying and they reached and or crossed the 15% level yesterday (Wed). There was a very large volume yesterday and now we know who was mopping up all the sells. Almost looked like a tree shake...

[bouleversee] 29/3/2018 15:42

Invesco have just added 0.75% to their holding and now hold l5% which may explain today's rise.

[gabrieloak] 29/3/2018 14:15

So far so good on your call....

[alphabeta4] 27/3/2018 09:42

Just added - this fall is way overblown IMHO and was too good to miss. My thinking is:

1) We've had a trading update on 25/1 saying 'Strong trading in the (important) December quarter', what are people expecting to have happened in two months after?? I would think it's fair to say lots of people buy their carpet in the January sales, most of the UK revenue has been banked already.
2) On the potential Carpetright issue people are forgetting that VCP has been becoming an increasingly non-UK business. Over the last year by my calculations the acquisitions (which are all non-UK) will add c£175m to 2019 revenue which is forecast at £539m. In the 2017 accounts 27% of revenue was already Australia. Comfortably over half the revenue is now non-UK and we know European economic growth has been accelerating of late, with buoyant consumer confidence.
3) As others have touched on CPR's problems have been longstanding and company specific. They have been losing trade to competitors and if they are to go I would expect the business to just go elsewhere.
4) The RSI is down at levels last seen in the days after the EU referendum (which turned out to be the best buying opportunity of the last two years - each situation is different but there price rebounded over 50% within two months)!

[wingspan] 24/3/2018 08:50

Anyone shorting (which I doubt) is in for a bit of a shock..in the last few years Carpetright have articulated their woes as market based. Not market based thus far.

[nivison] 23/3/2018 10:43

I hope so too. I suppose someone is shorting this stock off the back of Carpetright's woes. I think Carpetright are in trouble because of their own business shortcomings - lack of investment in stores, perhaps bad systems, very targeted competition from Tapi rather than a systemic problem in the carpet market. Invesco have taken advantage of the drop to add, which is interesting. I am hoping for good results and a bit of a squeeze on the shorter.

[gabrieloak] 22/3/2018 12:35

Mentioned here:

[...]

[nivison] 21/3/2018 10:29

Invesco have added to their holding. now up to 14.15% from 13.12%

[shanklin] 01/3/2018 10:51

3k Shares currently available online at under the 783p placing price.

[wingspan] 31/1/2018 21:05

B - you are probably right!! I wonder when they are going to stop accumulating because it is certainly taking out the share price volatility. W

[bouleversee] 25/1/2018 20:04

I think the someone is the fund manager(s) who believe in VCP long term and are taking advantage of the lower price in smallish tranches rather than one big one, which would attraction and push up the price, to increase their holding. I don't think they would risk flouting the regulations and not reveal an underlying individual client. But what do I know?

[wingspan] 25/1/2018 19:39

Its just a big coincidence...until recently a British (now) / Aussie / European flooring company that has increasingly grown to the Net Rev size that was always stated as being the prerequisite to attract Mohawak...is now being snapped up by American Invesco at an insistent rate...no doubt the legal structure is just Invesco...it just smells a tad unusual...maybe I am adding a simple 1+1 and getting a number greater than 2 but still...someone in America wants £120+mln of VCP so far...

[bouleversee] 25/1/2018 17:39

Apologies for bombarding you, but FWIW the following, which contains a glowing reference to VCP, has just popped up on my screen.



Pleased to say I hold both.

[bouleversee] 25/1/2018 17:20

Also the name of the shareholder would have had to be shown on the form if different from Invesco. Would VCP be circulating this RNS to shareholders without comment if they thought takeover plans were in the wind?

Also, they sent out a notice today about a capital markets day at Kerabin which included the following:

"The Group experienced very good levels of trading in the important December quarter, which has continued into the New Year, and looks forward to providing its usual trading update in April 2018."

Word gets around and I should have thought that the share price would be going up rather than down if sharebuilding with a view to t/o was going on. I'm more interested to know why if there has been good trading, against the general trend, the share price has gone down.

[bouleversee] 25/1/2018 16:54

I see that Invesco's HQ are in Atlanta so one shouldn't jump to conclusions. Anyway, do they buy individual holdings for clients as opposed to buying for one or other of their funds?

[bouleversee] 25/1/2018 16:50

OMG, mine are not in an ISA or SIPP and I have held for many years (had to remove them when they went on AIM) so there wd be huge cgt to pay though admittedly I could offset Carillion loss and other disasters.

How many offices does Invesco have? Could be just coincidence.

[wingspan] 25/1/2018 16:36

Hey B...

I am merely trying to raise the profile of the fact that someone in the USA (near offices of Mohawk) continues to accumulate shares in VCP...pure speculation on my part. I think it’s mohawk. I think it is a precursor to a bid or a period of pre bid accumulation. Will wait and see.