Victoria Share Discussion Threads

[shanklin] 12/4/2017 08:00

Blimey, is Eyeore too optimistic to be allowed to post here? :-)

You guys will certainly ensure nobody gets too positive re VCP.

[rotrader] 12/4/2017 06:59

We will have a better idea when the results are out.
Enjoy the ride - don't get bogged down in negativity ;-)

[bones] 11/4/2017 20:56

Bestace, I agree with your comments but I have a marker in my notes on the bank/debt issue now. An eye should be kept open IMO. Debt is all very well until your customers go on strike. Inflation is now affecting discretionary spending over here in U.K. but I cannot speak for Australia, etc.VCP is on my watchlist. I sold at 475 a few weeks ago after a good run but I am unsure about reinvesting despite the positive update.

[bestace] 11/4/2017 17:41

In last year's pre-close trading statement they said "due to the continued focus on improved cash generation there will be a material reduction in Group net debt and the net debt to EBITDA ratio since the interim results."

I presume the lack of a similar statement this year, together with the references to debt facilities and the bank, simply means net debt has gone up this year. But due to the cash paid for the various acquisitions, net debt would have been going up anyway even with a blow out operating performance.

The ratio of net debt to EBITDA was 1.85 last year (and 1.93 at the half year point), with interest cover over 7x. We were told in the last acquisition RNS on 13 February that the ratio remains at less than 2x, so unless cash conversion has dropped off a cliff in the last 2 months (which may have required its own RNS) it would appear the net debt position has deteriorated, but only slightly.

It's a £200m facility, so plenty enough to fund a M&A splurge and leave lots of headroom.

[bones] 11/4/2017 17:01

"The Group's banks continue to be very supportive and there remains considerable headroom in existing facilities."Hmmm. Not sure how to interpret this. Not what they said but why they felt the need to say it at all in a trading update. It's not often you see companies emphasising their banks' support in a trading update.Maybe they are putting to bed suggestions that they are over stretching themselves while on the acquisition trail.

[bestace] 11/4/2017 16:30

Yes, the company says "underlying profits before tax will be comfortably ahead of current consensus market expectations" and Cantor Fitzgerald says no change to their PBT estimates... something doesn't compute.

edit - finncap are talking of a 5% upgrade, which seems reasonable. This time last year the company was saying "materially ahead" which I think sounds better than the "comfortably ahead" wording used this year.

[rotrader] 11/4/2017 14:59

bestace
Too low?

[bestace] 11/4/2017 12:52

"In a note to clients on Victoria, analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald said they would leave their estimates unchanged at this stage, forecasting full-year pretax profits of £28.0mln, representing 54% year-on-year growth."

Why would you leave your estimates unchanged when the company has just told you they are too low?

[rotrader] 11/4/2017 07:56

Looking Good

[bestace] 09/3/2017 23:00

Unlikely perhaps, but not necessarily unrealistic IMO. I seem to recall the chain of events that led to GW owning 30% of the company had a whiff of dodginess about them.

carpetbagger - do you have a specific problem with the exceptionals presented in the accounts? I'm always interested in hearing reasoned negatives about a company but your double post just looks like insinuation.

[carpetbagger12345] 09/3/2017 21:46

Problems can arise, however, when non-GAAP financial measures are presented
inconsistently, defined inadequately, or obscure financial results determined in accordance with GAAP.




Exceptional Items from continuing operations
52 weeks ended 28 March . 2015 of (9,920)




Exceptional Items from continuing operations
52 weeks ended 28 March . 2016 TOGETHER with non underlying items of (xxxxxxxxx)

[carpetbagger12345] 09/3/2017 21:44

wendydc

wingspan

1boston


ALL THREE OF THESE POSTERS ONLY POST ON VCP. ALWAYS POSITIVELY.
ARE THEY THE SAME POSTER? CONNECTED TO THE COMPANY? MR GW?

[wingspan] 09/3/2017 21:09

unrealistic...

[bestace] 09/3/2017 20:43

It wouldn't necessarily be shooting himself in the foot if he was looking to walk the price down so he could buy the 70% he doesn't own on the cheap.

[wingspan] 09/3/2017 19:30

Having met the management on numerous occasions I will sleep well at night knowing that what you are saying is very unlikely.

GW's trust owns 30X % and seeing as he can only offload at a sale event it would be shooting himself properly in the foot to pi ss around with the numbers.

[carpetbagger12345] 04/3/2017 06:56

Problems can arise, however, when non-GAAP financial measures are presented
inconsistently, defined inadequately, or obscure financial results determined in accordance with GAAP.




Exceptional Items from continuing operations
52 weeks ended 28 March . 2015 of (9,920)




Exceptional Items from continuing operations
52 weeks ended 28 March . 2016 TOGETHER with non underlying items of (xxxxxxxxx)

[wendydc] 03/3/2017 18:40

Even more important than accounting profits is cash generation. And these guys have been stellar at turning profits into cash. Ever since the new team took over cash generation has exceeded reported earnings, which has allowed them to grow the company enormously while keeping debt under 2x ebitda

[rotrader] 02/3/2017 17:22

I don't think its a big worry - not many AIM listed company's would want the added expense.
Bring on the next acquisition and we will carry on the upward trend.

[carpetbagger12345] 28/2/2017 18:10

The big worry is that this company is presenting Non GAAP accounting

[1boston] 24/2/2017 00:33

I have been a long term advocate and see a company that beats market forecasts every year, a track record of making successful acquisitions, and a stated plan to continue growing. I continue to think there is material upside and cannot see any reason why the company will not create more shareholder value.

[ksharlandjiev] 23/2/2017 16:07

Does anyone have an idea what is causing the recent weakness?This is down 6+% the last couple of days with no news or anything hmmm

[wendydc] 14/2/2017 12:10

The problem with Tempus is that it excludes the possibility of further deals, which VCP has stated repeatedly it is going to do and has the funding to do. Another half-decent acquisition that increases eps by 20% (and note VCP has achieved more than double this every year for the last four years!), then the shares are less than 12x and cheap.

[1boston] 14/2/2017 11:16

Times article doesn't follow in my mind. Essentially a positive report from a journalist who has been negative about VCP historically and then an avoid. Also, doesn't the historic success of VCP in undertaking accretive acquisitions make it more likely than not they will do so in future?