Victoria Share Discussion Threads

[nfs] 08/5/2017 15:25

That recent big buy at £4.60 from GW looking like a great decision

[nfs] 08/5/2017 15:24

Sustained rise, anyone like to suggest a reason why?

[rotrader] 02/5/2017 14:41

Stand corrected - be good to know who bought GW's shares

[nfs] 29/4/2017 14:03

I think the BGF sold shares rather than buying

[nfs] 29/4/2017 14:02

I thought the BGF had sold shares because the RNS shows them below 6% so when written that way it's a reduction

[rotrader] 28/4/2017 16:49

BGF was established in 2011 to help Britain’s growing smaller and medium sized businesses. Backed by five of the UK’s main banking groups – Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, RBS and Standard Chartered – BGF is an independent company with up to £2.5bn with which to make long-term equity investments.  BGF also works closely with other key business organisations.
OUR MISSION
Our mission is to unlock the potential of fast-growing UK businesses that need long-term capital to drive their future success.
We are looking for companies that have robust and realistic expansion plans, with the flair, business acumen and desire to reach for new heights. In the current economic climate, Business Growth Fund offers a tremendously exciting opportunity for UK companies. BGF is about more than just financial investment and returns. We are offering a collaborative approach to financing growth, working closely with the companies in which we invest.
Our aim is to recognise businesses that have real potential and the desire to succeed. Our ambition is nothing less than creating the household business names and listed companies of tomorrow. Businesses that are successful not only in the UK, but around the world.

[rotrader] 28/4/2017 16:47

Business Growth Fund PLC increasing there holding - Guess that the next acquisition could be big

[rotrader] 27/4/2017 06:59

Yes, that's normally the way it works.Can't see any more sells by GW, till the big one - An American company buyout ;-)

[wingspan] 25/4/2017 17:18

Bestace, ditto and agree...unless the trades were agreed some time ago...big orders.

[bestace] 25/4/2017 16:18

I'm long on this share but talk of doing it to meet institutional demand sounds like a load of BS to me. If the IIs were really demanding stock, surely the sale wouldn't have required a 6% discount to the prevailing price.

[rotrader] 25/4/2017 12:41

Agree - With the forthcoming profits "comfortably ahead of current consensus market expectations..."
We are still looking good.

[1boston] 25/4/2017 10:28

Good for general corporate governance that he's below 30%. He's still got a very significant share of the business so I for one would not be too concerned. After he sold down in 2015 the company hasn't done too badly

[rotrader] 25/4/2017 10:19

2015
Geoff Wilding, Chairman of Victoria PLC commented:

"I agreed to the Placing in order to improve the liquidity of Victoria's shares and to build the company's shareholder base. These factors will become increasingly important as we continue to grow Victoria into a substantial business. I remain the largest shareholder in Victoria with almost 42 per cent. of the shares and, given this fact, shareholders can be assured I remain committed to Victoria's objective: 'to create wealth for our shareholders'. I will not be selling any further shares in the foreseeable future."

Today

Geoff Wilding, Chairman of Victoria PLC commented:

"I agreed to the share sale in order to meet continuing institutional demand and improve the liquidity of Victoria's shares and to further build the company's shareholder base. I remain the largest shareholder in Victoria with over 29 per cent. of the shares and, given this fact, shareholders can be assured I remain wholly committed to Victoria's objective: 'to create wealth for our shareholders'. I will not be selling any further shares for the foreseeable future."

[rotrader] 25/4/2017 10:12

GW cashing out a few million - don't know if we should be concerned.
Used the same reasoning as last time.

[x54v] 21/4/2017 13:20

Looks ready to break higher here.

The last move up before the consolidation was very strong.

Same to come again after the bullish recent trading statement?

---

"The Board is pleased to announce that the Group's underlying profits before tax will be comfortably ahead of current consensus market expectations..."

"Victoria remains focused on its strategy to create wealth for shareholders."

"The Board is confident it will deliver another year of significant, earnings-accretive acquisition growth in addition to underlying organic growth."

[rotrader] 21/4/2017 12:29

wingspan
Well said

[wingspan] 13/4/2017 17:23

Well done VCP - another year proving the bears wrong.

Victoria is one of those shares that attracts ongoing bearish views that only quieten down when the results shout at them to do so (this happens with regularity)...and to be clear, i for one welcome critical thinking and analysis (Debt ratios and consumer patterns etc).

There was a character on the other board called numberbiter who thought that black was white and recommended everyone sell at 1300 in old money...now one year later 23.50...

He thought he was doing everyone a favour...his problem was that he had sellers remorse (having sold out under 5 quid).

...lucian Miers wrote this blog in Nov 2015:

hxxp://www.shareprophets.com/views/16427/victoria-plc-a-carpet-maker-overdue-for-a-shagging

Quoting:

"Best of all, there is no indication yet as to whether the string of acquisitions will pay off. It’s too early to tell. Either this guy is a complete genius or his fellow shareholders are a bunch of pliant and gullible fools. I suspect the latter is a surefire bet and that the shares are overdue for a good carpeting.

For this reason I have sold them short."

Other than an unforeseen Brexit wobble that carpet bombed the market (pun intended...) and a sensible walk away from Lano...this share barely paused for breath post that article.

Thanks Lucian - how are the pliant and gullible shareholding fools looking thus far?

Over the years these blind bears and others have added little to rational dialogue on these boards. In some cases they (perversely) seem to almost WANT negative things to happen in this country or to a good solid British company / success story to screw up their accounts etc....just so they can be proved right in their views.

And Carpetbagger (or number biter?) for the record I am not Geoff Wilding writing as an alias...I am not nearly clever enough...i only started buying at 750p.

Keep at it - in one of the next few years there may be a slow down in consumer spend but carpets still get replaced on average every 9 years...and the cheapest way to tart your place up is with a lick of paint and a new carpet.

And for another year I feel comfortable saying (as I did to numberbiter last year) let's let the numbers speak for themselves?

[shanklin] 12/4/2017 08:00

Blimey, is Eyeore too optimistic to be allowed to post here? :-)

You guys will certainly ensure nobody gets too positive re VCP.

[rotrader] 12/4/2017 06:59

We will have a better idea when the results are out.
Enjoy the ride - don't get bogged down in negativity ;-)

[bones] 11/4/2017 20:56

Bestace, I agree with your comments but I have a marker in my notes on the bank/debt issue now. An eye should be kept open IMO. Debt is all very well until your customers go on strike. Inflation is now affecting discretionary spending over here in U.K. but I cannot speak for Australia, etc.VCP is on my watchlist. I sold at 475 a few weeks ago after a good run but I am unsure about reinvesting despite the positive update.

[bestace] 11/4/2017 17:41

In last year's pre-close trading statement they said "due to the continued focus on improved cash generation there will be a material reduction in Group net debt and the net debt to EBITDA ratio since the interim results."

I presume the lack of a similar statement this year, together with the references to debt facilities and the bank, simply means net debt has gone up this year. But due to the cash paid for the various acquisitions, net debt would have been going up anyway even with a blow out operating performance.

The ratio of net debt to EBITDA was 1.85 last year (and 1.93 at the half year point), with interest cover over 7x. We were told in the last acquisition RNS on 13 February that the ratio remains at less than 2x, so unless cash conversion has dropped off a cliff in the last 2 months (which may have required its own RNS) it would appear the net debt position has deteriorated, but only slightly.

It's a £200m facility, so plenty enough to fund a M&A splurge and leave lots of headroom.

[bones] 11/4/2017 17:01

"The Group's banks continue to be very supportive and there remains considerable headroom in existing facilities."Hmmm. Not sure how to interpret this. Not what they said but why they felt the need to say it at all in a trading update. It's not often you see companies emphasising their banks' support in a trading update.Maybe they are putting to bed suggestions that they are over stretching themselves while on the acquisition trail.

[bestace] 11/4/2017 16:30

Yes, the company says "underlying profits before tax will be comfortably ahead of current consensus market expectations" and Cantor Fitzgerald says no change to their PBT estimates... something doesn't compute.

edit - finncap are talking of a 5% upgrade, which seems reasonable. This time last year the company was saying "materially ahead" which I think sounds better than the "comfortably ahead" wording used this year.

[rotrader] 11/4/2017 14:59

bestace
Too low?