Victoria Share Discussion Threads

[drk1] 24/6/2022 16:24

Possibly, but I'd say it's a repeating pattern of the shorters (who have increased yet again to a crazy 3.31%) waiting for the rise (and buys) before opening up their salvos in the knowledge that directors are now closed out from supporting the share price due to results next month. These aren't holders selling, this is text book hedge fund shorting.

[my retirement fund] 24/6/2022 15:26

well that bounce was quickly sold into, looked like deliberate AT manipulation to take advantage of pushing price up in low volume in order to sell some larger manually executed orders into to me.

[drk1] 21/6/2022 11:04

Unusual (but welcome) share price movement today bearing in mind that Coltrane upped their short position yet again on the 17th (now a staggering 2.85% of stock being shorted). News coming??????

[drk1] 17/6/2022 07:55

Agree. Only thing on our side is that one of the shorters (Coltrane) is opportunist - they opened their initial position on the 9th June when we were already 60% down and since then, they've topped up twice, once on the 14th & then again on the 15th! This looks to me to be more greed on the part of Coltrane as opposed to any serious analysis, meaning that any good news now from VCP should send them tumbling into hell!

[rotrader] 16/6/2022 17:11

Been this way before with the shorters Perhaps not quite as bad as this but I still believe the Vultures will have to close their position before long. A tactical bid might be on the cards which will be refuted by VCP ,then in the new year when the recovery begins the group are well set to make substantial profit .Just my opinion as usual ;-)

[topvest] 13/6/2022 18:04

Agreed. Token director buying won’t make much difference. A risk off environment.

[spectoacc] 13/6/2022 14:38

Shorters are winning, despite a small (token?) director buy.

[drk1] 11/6/2022 16:29

And to add to our misery - Coltrane asset management opened a 0.7% short on Thursday, making a total of 2.3% of stock out on loan and short. The highest figure yet recorded for VCP since 2019. Management need to respond.

[drk1] 09/6/2022 16:25

This is wicked shorting from Boldhaven (who upped their short to 1% on Monday). Sincerely hope they get roasted by news.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 05/6/2022 10:01

My understanding of the Koch investment is that VCP owe them £225m, but only £75m of this is convertible into equity. Like you I think borrowing money at over 8% to buy a mature manufacturing company which will probably never make margins as big as this in the long term was a step too far. Wilding seems to be chasing scale at any cost and because the banks aren't keen to lend VCP money he is forced to use non standard financing. The bond price has fallen a fair bit recently, probably the most sensible thing Wilding could do is buy back the debt now it is trading significantly below par rather than continually trying to ramp up the price of the ords.

[topvest] 05/6/2022 09:36

I agree that LfL sales on the consumer side are highly likely to deteriorate, as with most other sectors that benefited from a lockdown tailwaind - now a massive headwind and we are seeing this in trading updates all the time. On the other hand, they will be doing better on the corporate side I suspect. Overall, I suspect sales to be fairly resilient - flooring is quite a resilient category. On the profitability and debt side, I am inclined to agree that VCP are over-indebted. They have done a good job on the long-term debt to lock in low rates. Profitability does need adjusting for the c£30m of intangibles amortisation every year, but there are lots off add-back's in addition to this. The Koch preferred equity financing looks a step too far. It's typical "greedy private equity" financing. On balance, I think they will be hard pressed to afford it and it was an unwise move. It could lead to substantial dilution for ordinary shareholders at some point.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 04/6/2022 17:55

One last point, net debt is probably close to £800m by now, totally unsustainable imo.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 04/6/2022 16:56

Try reading this: hTTps://uk.news.yahoo.com/property-coronavirus-housing-market-boom-home-improvements-stamp-duty-holiday-rishi-sunak-160026078.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFwu3Wsc5lghgBzA0zMygCWZU8y7xml0iqF-hVN48Lt4WQNZ5EUWbg-ZXq6cUbIt1FostNEvVlAs_tMVgeaaGnBVURrIXeSC_f_swsBmf_VVA7LEKK-LfXRWRAgsq-zi01Pgf3attLqMg7z4UqfK06MQwaavPSBtdgHK1h2QRn-f

[arthur_lame_stocks] 04/6/2022 16:49

Sorry I should have said prefs to Koch.

[topvest] 04/6/2022 12:42

It will certainly be very interesting to see how this turns out. I sold out at break-even because of: 1. Too highly geared; 2. Uncertainty as to whether Wilding was the genuine article or not; and 3. No proposect of dividends. That being said, Wilding has certainly delivered to date and, provided the numbers can be trusted, I don't expect them to go bust. His record has been great. The numbers never look great for acquisition buy and build group's, because of the intangibles amortsiation and I'm not a fan of acquisitiive growth in general. I always had the feeling that I had been suckered into the stock by the Warren Buffett style talking. Is it genuine or a cover was the question that I kept asking myself? Call me cynical if you like. If it's genuine this is a great business in the making. If he's not, then the future might not be great and it might all unravel. Any thoughts?

[arthur_lame_stocks] 01/6/2022 18:10

Fantasy Island.

[alotto] 01/6/2022 16:44

Why on earth brokers give such a high price target to this one? £10 and over? where are these numbers coming from?

[drk1] 01/6/2022 16:36

Shorts closing? (so glad I opened that spread-bet). ;-)

[quottot] 01/6/2022 16:31

bye bye arthur

[william127] 30/5/2022 10:56

Where have you seen this? It doesn't fit the usual well invested and well managed, standalone company. Armstrong had made strange decisions for the past five years before getting rid of uk division. It doesn't make sense.

[bda3490] 30/5/2022 07:21

Up today Presumably they are buying Armstrong Flooring out of chapter 11

[aburyu] 27/5/2022 15:31

I took some at 495 only to see it fall further. Glad it has bounced since.