Versarien Share Discussion Threads

[ellissj] 09/3/2019 16:05

10 sectors most relevant to 'made in china 2025' below. Best ellis

'Made in China 2025 (MIC 2025) plan and opportunities for UK companies.'

"...China’s cheap labour and the competitive advantage of its infrastructure will not be sufficient in the long run to drive sustainable growth. In May 2015, China’s State Council announced a national strategy called Made in China (MIC 2025), which is led by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). The initiative involves turning China into a global manufacturing power, with emphasis on innovation and sustainable manufacturing.

MIC 2025 has set objectives up to 2025 and further long-term ones up to 2049. The MIC 2025 plan details nine strategic tasks: to encourage innovation; to promote the use of integrated, digital, technology-focused manufacturing; to restructure industries to improve efficiency and output; to focus on enforcing green manufacturing methods; to strengthen the overall industrial base; to improve product quality and build global Chinese brand names; to make innovative technological breakthroughs in the ten priority sectors; to improve service-oriented manufacturing and manufacturing-service industries; and to globalise Chinese manufacturing industries.

There is a wide spectrum of opportunities in China for British suppliers, ranging from the management of information to process optimization and monitoring. China also relies heavily on imported new and smart materials to supply its aerospace, rail, automotive, packaging and healthcare sectors. The ten priority sectors identified by MIC 2020 provide further opportunities for plastics companies and these are:

· New and advanced materials

· High-end manufacturing control machinery and robotics

· High-end electronic equipment

· Low and new-energy vehicles

· Aviation and aerospace equipment

· Integrated circuits and new IT technology

· Advanced marine equipment and high-tech vessels

· Biopharmaceuticals and high-end medical equipment

· Advanced rail and equipment

· Agricultural machinery and technology

With the scope of MIC 2025 including high-end manufacturing and smart manufacturing, there are gaps for British exporters that supply solutions to improve efficiencies in energy, labour and materials. China needs suppliers of high-end equipment, robotics and automation, and 3D printing technologies — but also supporting services and training...." 

[1teepee] 09/3/2019 15:46

All the great stuff he has done does not erase what he did. He has great info and we praise him for that but even good children can do wrong and are punished. If a person has donated money to charity and then beats his wife, do we say he has done so much good so it doesn't matter?

[festario] 09/3/2019 15:22

Ridicule, that is a very simplistic but necessary piece of work.The figures are identical to those you told me over those enjoyable beers in Lanzarote the other week. I liked them then, and I like them now, as they make sense.In terms of repatriating the revenue from China, as and when it comes on stream, that too is straightforward.The only 3 companies I worked for over my career all had a Hong Kong or Far East office.If they are set up as a wholly owned subsidiary, as Neill has no doubt done, then they exist as administrative offices, whereby they can handle invoicing and contractual matters on behalf of the parent company, in this case Versarien U.K., Any costs or taxes payable in the Far East, will be handled as a recharge (or claimback) basis by the parent company.

[haz101] 09/3/2019 14:13

Fair play rid, I checked out the hype graph the other day and it made a lot of sense

[clint fleecewood] 09/3/2019 14:05

SG1 may have upset the apple cart by posting the link on here but he removed as soon as he was asked and the real blunder is on the part of whoever put it on the net without putting a secure firewall in front of it. All too common in design studios where the designer may have no real concept of the sensitivity of the material he or she is handling.

[ridicule] 09/3/2019 13:56

haz101 Thanks for your response. It was this analysis that stopped me buying above the PB fund raise @ 1.45, although I did buy then as part of that offer, primarily for the point raised by Alchemy. A p/e of 20 could prove conservative.

[haz101] 09/3/2019 13:46

Fantastic post ridicule! It’s posts like that gets my head around the share price movements this past few months

[alchemy] 09/3/2019 13:42

P/E 60 then as per your last line! Not implausible .

[alchemy] 09/3/2019 13:39

Ridicule , that's great work and none says it's irrelevant even though we're aiming at being 'disruptive,'.An you see plausible combinations leading to Unicorn Status?

[alchemy] 09/3/2019 13:37

Neil's holding is so large cold hit his satisficing targets before I've started!

[ellissj] 09/3/2019 13:25

Superb post rid. The bigger picture indeed. My view is there are multiple opportunities here and so to treat the share precisely like that ie i refuse to make it a binary choice. (Btw that is what detractors want). my strategy is simply to wait patiently for irons to come out of the fire when they are ready - ie at the best price the company can get. And neills shareholding means he acts in long term holders interests in this regard. I've held through the highs and lows here. Each to their own. Aimo. Best ellis

[ridicule] 09/3/2019 12:56

Good question Compoundup. I am not sure. I do get good responses from NR when I email him. I am sure they have that base covered, but it should not be unacceptable in Nomad terms for NR to answer your point.I suggest you email him. I would do it, but it was your question and it is a good one.

[compoundup] 09/3/2019 12:51

Nice analysis Rid. I don't think you are being at all optimistic about the margin assumption either. Margin will inevitably reduce as other suppliers work out how to produce true FLG in quantity in the future but at least initially I think Neill will be able to do better than 20%.

One thing I would like to know more about - and I hope there are some here who can speak from experience - is on the subject of repatriation of profits. When VRS complete the paperwork and enter into a JV in China and start generating revenue there under a subsidiary business vehicle, are there going to be obstacles in realising profits for VRS shareholders outside China?

[ridicule] 09/3/2019 12:49

johnveals Sorry that it is a bit long, but detailed analysis is difficult to do superficially. I do take your point though!

[johnveals] 09/3/2019 12:45

Rid - can you give me the 10 sec summary ;-)

[ridicule] 09/3/2019 12:37

There have been some interesting posts on the Hype curve, raised by NR at the luncheon and the 'S' curve articulated by Tony Seba. I would like to try and put some metrics on these curves as they apply to VRS. First it is necessary to make 4 assumptions:

1. VRS will not be involved in Capital Infrastructure (Factories etc)
expenditure, they will rely on partners for those, although they could be used
as an offset as part of the partnership package. i.e. Jinan Province in the
case of the Chinese.

2. Both the Hype curves and the 'S' curves are not static. They move through
calendar time and will vary as they move through that time.

3. Both the Hype and the 'S' curve effects will interact with each other as
their juxtaposition changes through the emergence of different events. RNSs,
Aqcuisitions etc. These interactions will be manifested in what the market
deems to be an acceptable p/e for VRS. When the Hype curve is quiescent the
acceptable p/e will be lower, when the 'S' curve becomes dynamic, even though
hype curve is in a stable state the influence of the 'S' curve will ensure a
higher acceptable p/e. When both curves are peaking together, the p/e will move beyond
a reasonable figure.

4. The unique characteristic of VRS is that it will generate multiple Hype and
'S' curves. There will be a pair for each vertical as breakthroughs occur. A
pair for each Eureka through association with Academe and the Catapults ie.
batteries, smart solar, lighweighting, super capacitors etc. There will be a
pair for each acquisition, particulary if it is disruptive in technology
terms, as is likely to be the case. Each acquisition of this type is likely to
generate multiple pairs of Hype and 'S'curves in its own right. The potential for this is
already evident in Gnanomat. There will also be multiple pairs of curves for
each launch of a new 2D material of which there are several thousand.

The 4 assumptions that I posit above is what makes VRS such an exciting company to invest in and there are very very few companies that display these characteristics. Tern is possibly one other although less defined than VRS at this stage.

Against the foregoing, the prediction for a take-off ('S' curve) type point becomes
quite complex to predict. Even NR, while having much more visibility than us, will not be able to control the timing, order, or the way these multiple influences unfold. What I think we can all say is that this great spetacle will start to unfold during 2019. This is why I am invested here and this is why. not even a small portion of my core holding will be sold until the share price is at least higher than £2. The other reason for my position, is that VRS have a strong cash position.

Let me now take a slightly different approach. Let's assume for demonstration purposes, that an acceptable p/e for a quiescient period is 16 and a more dynamic period ('S'curve) is 20. These numbers of course can be varied depending on one's view. There are 154m shares in issue and let us assume a margin of 20% so:

p/e 16 shareprice 95p: eps needs to be 5.9375p:@154m shares, profit 9.14m:t/o 45.7m
p/e 20 shareprice 95p: eps needs to be 4.75p: @154m shares, profit 7.32m: t/o 36.6m

p/e 16 shareprice £2: eps needs to be 12.5p: @154m shares, profit 19.25m:t/o 96.25m
p/e 20 shareprice £2: eps needs to be 10p: @154m shares, profit 15.4m: t/o 77m

I must stress these firgures are illustrative and the metrics that drive them are: the p/e number, the number of shares in issue and the assumed margin of 20%.

The Company is turming over £10m at present which is why the gap between the fundamental trading value and the enterprise(hope) value is so large.Given the foregoing analysis, however, moving from £10 to circa £100m within 12 months is certainly possible. I'me in!!

[chimpandy1] 09/3/2019 11:46

Well said woody, as a novice investor super has helped me out massively. I'm sure most people on this board have benefited from supers fine research.

[alchemy] 09/3/2019 11:33

There's no way Super should be able to tell us stuff we shouldn't know , he shouldn't know it.

[ellissj] 09/3/2019 11:03

Neill Ricketts Retweeted.

Suze@SuziesiwsuZe

"Had bit of shock reminder this am that life is short. Live your life, love your friends & family, do good deeds, pass it on. Smile, be happy, don’t hold grudges, if life throws you lemons make lemonade. Say I love you often. Be positive where you can be. All that stuff. #onelife"

9:25 am · 7 Mar 2019

[ellissj] 09/3/2019 10:56

Agreed woody. And Best to keep eyes upon the bigger picture here. We all want the company to do well. Best ellis

[woodpeckers] 09/3/2019 10:38

Totally unnecessary comment teepee! superg has done more to support the company than the rest of us put together. I for one, am very grateful for his input.

[1teepee] 09/3/2019 10:05

So it's superg1 's fault for the delay as he told everyone about the Aecom arch page! On his high horse for everyone else and he screwed up our timeline.