Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 28/2/2018 16:28

fozzie's SPSY in the Comparison looks to be a performer:
"SPSY - Spectra Systems manufactures products for industries that include brand authentication, document and mail processing, drug discovery, textile services and digital optical media. I began buying several years ago at sub 20p and have recently bought a lot more in the 80p area. Share price is lower now than in October when company gave an 'ahead' statement. Should be a trading update in early Jan 18. There has been a seller from 108 down to current 80p area. Katie Potts Herald IT took a decent slug at 100p earlier in the year. If last divi payment was maintained we would have a yield of 10% here, wishful thinking perhaps."

Anyone else had a look? I wonder why a US company is on AIM?

I don't look at Beddard's mechanism - just the reports on companies that interest me.

apad😎

[janeann] 28/2/2018 14:56

dotd - would have only btfd on Monday had I thought it was a company worth hanging onto. Surprised at the market reaction but didn't have the courage to buy more yesterday at c85.5p, and think growth will continue. Just hope with 21 vacanices they can get the positions filled - esp the technical ones. Mistake was buying pre results; happy to hold (especially as I don't like selling at a loss, although that can be a costly mistake)

ztf - last chance to buy under £5 perhaps....?

[homebrewruss] 28/2/2018 12:03

Hydrus I think you're right in general but Maplin was always not specialist enough for my liking and overpriced on computer parts etc compared to the net and other locations.

ToysRUS' offering was also outdated plus as a parent of young children, going into any toy shop with kids is a nightmare so best avoided IMV in favour of the net where possible.

MTC, I know they don't seem to be doing so well but they have at least actually made an effort with their stores offering by adding cafe's, softplay and even haircuts for kids and is a preferable destination to somewhere like ToysRUS.

[hydrus] 28/2/2018 11:42

Sounds like he's overcomplicating investing. It can be quite a simple pursuit really.

[hydrus] 28/2/2018 11:13

Devastation on the high street and there is no sign of a recession. Maplin and Toys R Us going down. Concerns over House of Fraser. I expect this is just the start of a permanent change. Town centres might look very different in 15 years due to internet retail. Younger shoppers do much more of their shopping online I suspect, so when older generations are no longer around to prop shops up it will be much much worse. I'd suspect some shops will survive but towns will mainly be food markets, local pop up stores and bars/restaurants (plus charity shops and Poundland!)

[apad] 28/2/2018 09:18

They are "variable", V, I expect because he has to produce words every day.

Beddard is more worth the time as he is not so prolific and follows specific companies.

tlst - AA - couldn't agree more, the problem, for me, is that it can take years before a problem manifests.
Top 5 most shorted:
CARILLION PLC 14.0%
DEBENHAMS PLC 13.8%
PROVIDENT FINANCIAL PLC 13.2%
AA PLC 11.8%
MELROSE INDUSTRIES PLC 11.5%

apad😎

You snowed in at Fawlty Towers, red?

[valhamos] 28/2/2018 08:59

APAD

Scott - In the past I found his comments too variable; I don't really have the time to sift through to find something useful. To some extent the same goes for Beddard.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 28/2/2018 08:49

Huge fall today at SFE.
Im begining to wonder if predicting which shares will go down is more reiliable than predicting which ones will go up.
Is there inherently more optimism in prices. And then when the bad news lands there is an equal over reaction to the down side. Not only reactionary emotions taking grip but also our algo friends selling into a market quicker than buyers can possibly begin to offer a balancing trade.

When i was looking at the AA for example i could not see a reason to own it. If it was the only publicly traded business then maybe... but when there are so many other options out there why have money tied to the AAs mega debt mountain.
The fund managers could choose from hundreds of others companies to invest in and still be within theirs funds remit.

My point is.. are there huge but sort of untapped shorting opportunities that the market doesnt really see because all eyes are looking to closly at the shinning stars.
A bit like apads hand waving lady. I can understand why that little lesson stuck with you BTW.

[apad] 28/2/2018 08:28

Here's an example showing Beddard's worth:

"Victrex (VCT) is so enormously profitable, it's prepared to sacrifice some profit margin to grow. I went to the polymer manufacturer's AGM earlier this month to find out why its medical division seems to be contracting slightly. Three of its products in development, spinal, dental and knee implants, underpin a substantial part of Victrex's strategy to grow revenue by an additional 10% to 20% in the medium term by fashioning products, or semi-finished products.

Though PEEK, the polymer Victrex manufactures is no commodity, like Treatt, Victrex is moving downstream, and supplying industries that have never used PEEK parts before. To do that, it must prove its material is better than metal to customers that, hitherto have used nothing else but metal. That is, I now understand, quite an undertaking. Especially when you are proposing is to put the material in somebody's body.

Growth has stalled because in the US, Victrex's biggest market, 70% of spinal implants already use PEEK, much of which comes from Victrex. Titanium, the alternative, is making something of a comeback too. Victrex has a new product, that counters titanium's advantage, superior bone growth on the implant, and has substantial advantages of its own, it doesn't weaken the spine like titanium and its much cheaper to manufacture. But sales of the new product are largely replacing sales of the older product.

Meanwhile, Victrex must commercialise its dental technologies, and get its knee implants tested and approved. It says it's on the verge of breakthroughs, but even once PEEK devices are routinely being used, it could take quite a while for revenues to grow to levels that would make much difference to a company already bringing in nearly £300 million a year.

One question I failed to ask, is roughly how long the "medium term" is. Investors may need to be patient."

[apad] 28/2/2018 07:59

Tried to watch the Coro launch video. Yuk!

apad😎

[apad] 28/2/2018 07:52

Valhamos,

You don't need to subscribe to read Scott's column.

www.stockopedia.com/columns/paul-scotts-uk-small-cap-value-report-1/

He is one of the few commentators who is honest and also admits to mistakes and lack of understanding.

His early explanation of the finances of online clothes shops opened my eyes in a damascene moment.

Doesn't mean I always agree with him, but he explains his reasoning, so it is much easier to understand his viewpoint.

The other commentator I value is Beddard.

apad😎

ps
janeann, have you decided whether to stick with DOTD?

[apad] 28/2/2018 07:36

WEIR trumpeting orders this morning.
But....
Cash from operations:
-25%

I went to a lecture (nothing to do with investing) where a woman waved one hand high in the air whilst leaving the other down by her side.
She said "whenever someone says look at this, look at this - you should, instead, look at this" and waved the lower hand feebly.

That was over thirty years ago - somethings really stick!

apad😎

[apad] 27/2/2018 18:28

Thanks, Valhamos.
"People(+37peopleinlast12months)"
apad

[apad] 27/2/2018 16:42

Paul Scott a better balance sheet assessment, on DOTD, than mine, but a similar conclusion.
Sleeping on this one for a while.
apad😎

[apad] 27/2/2018 14:28

PTSG FY late March - now might be a good opportunity for a first tranche. Perhaps, maybe.
apad🤔

[apad] 27/2/2018 14:24

Nah, j. ZTF is one of my many missed opportunities that serves to haunt me.
apad😎

[janeann] 27/2/2018 14:07

ZTF - agree mod - Mind I have my position on ztf now; and I have given up trying to trade it - todays leap to a new ath justifies why its a buy and hold and too risky to trade; (did you get any apad or are you the cause of this jump?)

[apad] 27/2/2018 13:42

"it has increased revenue by massively increasing admin cost , and that's very easy to do."

I don't think that's a universal principle, mod.

This is not shabby:
"Group revenue grew 25% to £18.8m from £15.0m in H1 2017
Organic revenue grew 17% to £17.5m (H1 2017: £15.0m)"

.... and companies have increased costs with no discernible result.

Agree with your other points.
I'm thinking of buying some ZTF, just to keep it in view!

apad😎

[modform] 27/2/2018 12:48

The problem with DOTD is that it has increased revenue by massively increasing admin cost , and that's very easy to do. The uniqueness of a company is when it can generate revenue increase by maintaining or slightly increasing admin costs so most revenue increase go to bottom line.Jane, you can't go wrong with ZTF imo, I like it more than VCT, but very illiquid so best build a position on dips.CKN, it's a class act, it has increased its dividend for many many years, and a beautiful looking chart.

[apad] 27/2/2018 12:37

Looks like the price of DOTD might be on the turn. Looks a bit overdone to me.

They have the revenue growth, so they can turn this into profit or use it to grow the business. In this game it's all about getting big enough to be difficult to compete with, so my comparison would be with BOO or FFX, Hydrus, rather than QTX or AMS.
However, nothing is immune from a change in overall sentiment to highly priced puppies.

My own view is that overpaying for really good growth companies is not a problem, because a couple of years down the line it gets lost in the noise.
It is a problem with cyclical, larger companies because it can be like waiting for Godot.
I'm 180% up on DOTD - QED.
However, it is in a highly competitive arena, so any tail-off in revenue growth is the critical metric - for me that will be when the story changes and, if it happens, I will be arching my back and spitting.

apad

[hydrus] 27/2/2018 12:08

.....Due to the spread they are down circa 15% before even started lol. If you like the company and prospects still then no action needed.Having said that I wonder if DOTD is in the same class as QTX, AMS. All good companies but the valuations are simply too high for growth rate? I don't know about DOTD though maybe it has catalysts for higher growth round the corner. Not close enough to it to know.

[hydrus] 27/2/2018 12:05

Jane it's only a small fall. I have s couple of nanocaps and

[janeann] 27/2/2018 11:32

well what a mistake; own fault for buying before results. something I try and avoid. At least daughters happy with her LISA full of ZTF - bought 5 and 6 feb.

[toptrump1] 27/2/2018 10:51

Beware the Head and shoulders chart though, with likely fall to 68p