Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[hydrus] 26/2/2018 09:41

'What's not to like' - the valuation of the business APAD. It's too high and returns from this point will be limited/low.

[apad] 26/2/2018 09:29

CRDA and DOTD news tomorrow.

My last purchase of DOTD was last July at 72.5p, janeann. It then moved sideways until Sept.
It seems to be very low profile.

BTW, I think I wrote that QTX (1.2% of Stairway and 18% gain) is now on its own as far as I am concerned.
However if it does languish as low as 300p I might change that decision. It was always an interesting comparison with TRAK, but I think that story is now over.
QTX is a nice, little, well managed business returning cash to shareholders - what's not to like.
The key figures to watch are fleet growth and customer retention.
I shall be reading the report, when it comes, looking for any details on the way its software feeds into back office procedures as I see this as a key differentiator.

In terms of its insurance business: "During 2017 revenue of £7.0m (2016: £8.4m) was derived from one insurance customer." This is all of its insurance business and compares with total revenue of £24m. So, although low-margin the loss of one customer could hit revenue.

apad😎

[hydrus] 26/2/2018 09:05

APAD I recall we discussed QTX some time ago and my view was it would go nowhere due to high rating and low growth rate. I stand my that view still. I have a small holding still and may well retain it as the Manager is highly competent. I wish he had a better market to demonstrate his skills though. A company like QTX doesn't warrant a PE ratio of over 30 in my view. There are a number of companies like this - relatively low growth yet sky high ratings.

[apad] 26/2/2018 08:57

QTX FY
Good overseas growth and good retention figures.
Still coping with the reduction in low margin insurance business.

Very well managed in a highly competitive area.
"Net cash increased to £7.3m (2016 net cash: £6.2m)
Final dividend payment of 11.1p per share proposed (2016: 9.0p)"

PIs looking for exciting growth opportunities will not like these results. It will drop off the radar and languish. Could be a good buying opportunity down the line. Maybe 300p?

apad😎

[janeann] 26/2/2018 08:57

well in the spirit of the above exchange of messages re fear and dips, I have searched apad quality stocks with btfd opportunities - and bought the dip of DOTD - 2k at 94p; and its looking promising so far.

[apad] 26/2/2018 08:51

DPH interims.
As expected.
"Underlying diluted EPS growth of 19.8% to 37.58 pence. Interim dividend increase by 20.0% to 7.33 pence."
Three acquisitions will feed into the FY results.
apad😎

[apad] 25/2/2018 08:14

Pursuit Dynamics came from a patent bought by a bunch of UK 'entrepreneurs' (Yeah Right)from an australian. It was designed to be a water jet motor engine for small boats.
It went through several different application areas (the last, if memory serves, being as a food mixer) consuming multi-millions of pounds at each stage, before it went foreseeably, and inevitably, bust.
The way the company portrayed the technology was as a perpetual motion machine.
I think the Bulletin Board may still be extant if you want to peer into hell from a safe distance.
apad😎

[janeann] 24/2/2018 20:24

Many thanks for your thoughts apad.

I am going to try and use a good btfd on a share that seems ok and attempt to buy the dips and perhaps also sell the peaks - will see whether the dips are always good buying opportunities. Now find a candidate; at lest it cant be clln!

ps pursuit dynamics; that was the spray to fight fires with I recall - seemed a decent/logical idea at the time!

[apad] 24/2/2018 09:24

The top fierce predators either attack or run away, because a wound can easily be fatal (infection or limiting hunting ability).
Source:
"Why Big Fierce Animals Are Rare An Ecologist's Perspective" Paul A. Colinvaux.

I've, sort of, adopted this as a way of avoiding 'confirmation bias' (the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.)
Look at the Koovs board postings, against the share price graph, to see a pitch perfect example.
Historically, Pursuit Dynamics is a stunning case-study.

As a result I look for whether the story has changed very carefully. If it has I bail out as soon as possible.

Since rationalising this, I've missed some large gains, but I have only one failure (Goodwin - at least not catastrophic) - largely because I didn't follow my 'principles' in this case.

I'm not advocating this approach, simply describing how I like to behave. Writing things down tend to crystallise them, for me.

Back in the day, MCGN was a share I sold because I believed the story had changed, and I was wrong.

I didn't BTFD on QTX, j, but I would have been quite happy to do so - perhaps I was too busy looking after the puppies.
Stairway doesn't have a lot of income this time of year, either.

The yoodles ended the week excited, which bodes well for next week (and should do the Comparison the world of good).

News from DOTD/QTX/DPH/CRDA, so I shall be very alert!

apad😎

[janeann] 23/2/2018 23:13

apad - cant be right ; sometimes fear should be trusted other times its leading one astray. How do you differentiate? Did you buy more qtx on the dip?

and what happened to the bold lion or other high predator (you mentioned in a recent post) when others are timid.

MCGN: massive decline in share price and now recovering. good company, recurring revenues etc; but at present buying the dip was the right thing to do. (I didn't). Its still a dip but I am fearful of the volatility despite my confidence in the co.

[apad] 23/2/2018 16:42

Trust your fear, j.
It'll keep you safe 😊

Paton is excellent, Glaws2 - I particularly like his comments on the meetings. He has an eye for detail that is much better than mine.

apad😎

[janeann] 23/2/2018 15:19

Thanks MJ; I was hoping someone would say something to help overcome that fear; even logic tells me that if its a decent stock and nothing untoward is around then one should add. Take the recent arc dip - I didn't add but the dip clearly didnt worry apad who bought another 5 (oops few) shares!

but on a roll today with ztf and arc striding forward.


.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 23/2/2018 15:09

Well unfortunately some of us have been forced to be a bit more humble than others. :)

Edit: When I win this years comp I'll be very humble in my victory lol

[glaws2] 23/2/2018 14:36

Great blog by Paton on TSTL

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 23/2/2018 12:10

Think that's the key to the worth of the vlg thread.
Very human and humble.
Shared experience and knowledge equals greater results for all.
Commiserations when someone gets it wrong and congratulations when someone gets it right.

[melton john] 23/2/2018 11:31

Morning Janeann, very honest to admit to being human. So many posters if they are to be believed get it right every time and trade every movement and try to encourage others to copy, I tend not to believe a word.

[woodcutter] 23/2/2018 10:14

Is jerry looking at the same balance sheet as me?

hxxp://www.proactive investors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/8793/venture-life-has-sights-set-on-expanding-presence-in-us-market-8793.html

I do wish advfn would stop this silly juvenile attitude towards posting links to other financial websites

woody

[janeann] 23/2/2018 08:30

when dips get too deep I get scared and cant bring myself to add. thinking there must be something driving it down. the mistake is then buying when it gets back to the top. (unless its prsm of course!)

[apad] 23/2/2018 08:08

Significantly higher than the early Feb. BTFD opportunity, j.

apad😎

[janeann] 23/2/2018 07:57

thanks on 2 counts apad; second plus the info on mcgn - although that was a few days ago. it has dipped a long way back - disappointing really

[apad] 23/2/2018 07:47

"We are fully committed to helping insurers manage the incredible complexities of IFRS 17. This is a billion-dollar problem that must be tackled by an industry already under significant pressures. With almost 40% of insurers expected to kick off their implementation projects in Q2 2018, we advise that insurers act now and avoid a potential skills shortage in the market.

Potentially, then, a huge growth market for Microgen over the next few years."

[apad] 23/2/2018 07:44

hxxp://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/02/22/lloyds_to_splash_3bn_on_tech/

[apad] 23/2/2018 07:01

The Comparison average is -2.2%.

At least it is outperforming the all-share at -5.4%.

Stars are -5% and Stalwarts -1.5%

janeann is a very creditable +9% and high risk Mattjos is down to +20% :-)

Stairway is +3.4% (apad😊 is well pleased)

End of month, next week.

apad😎

[apad] 23/2/2018 06:53

IC this morning.
Phew!
Buy on KWS - talk about missing the boat!
Buy on LTG - joining the bandwagon.
Buy on TSTL 'cos of April in yoodleland - that's gonna be a popular tintin theme 😊
Buy on LLOY - pretty obvious now.
Buy on AZN - nothing new there then!

Good article by Bearbull comparing SPX and RSW - this Bearbull is doin' proper research (unlike the last one).

Another set of tintins analysing a 'reader's' portfolio. As usual the financial approach to spreading risk is based on zero analysis of the businesses and entirely on balance sheets.
The contrast between my approach, that is based on the desirability of the business first (and not selling whilst the story is extant), which has produced an unbalanced portfolio that would give tintins apoplexy is remarkable. I must stay scared.
Here is the degree of my imbalance:

FEVR
BOO
ABC
RSW
BVXP
TSTL
DOTD
AMS
SPX
PRV
HLMA
PTSG
FARN
QTX
FFX
VCT
SOU
NTQ
ZOO
DPH
IDEA
ARC

26.3%
15.2%
12.3%
7.7%
6.4%
4.9%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.4%
3.2%
2.8%
2.4%
1.2%
1.1%
0.9%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.08%

apad😎