Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 15/12/2017 08:03

I'm not advocating, janeann, merely sharing :-)

IC predicting the future for a 'mere' £5.95!

Buys on PURP and RWS, red.

apad

[janeann] 15/12/2017 07:37

But it contains lots of prsm!!!

[apad] 15/12/2017 07:24

henryatkin:

Unit trust, Old Mutual UK small companies is up 43% year to date & 80% over the past two years. One £10 trade fee, no stamp duty, no initial charge, negligible spread (sometimes zero) & just 0.8% ongoing fee.

Its up 620% since the start of 2009 & 1900% since 2003. Makes me wonder why I'm managing my own portfolio's with all the added costs & time involved.

[apad] 15/12/2017 06:54

Hi red,
The algorithms are looking for patterns - modelled as some sort of wave function.
There are a lot of them operating on the same principles.
They compete more on speed of computation than on type of algorithm.
The price of a stock responds to numbers of buys and sells.
The AT trades are a dominant force in many shares - producing very large numbers of buys and sells.
It seems to me that they must create patterns as well as riding those patterns - this would help to explain the dominant advantage of speed.
It also seems to me that large numbers of trades could also create periods of relative plateaus (regular up and down movements in a constrained range) that inhibit longer term trends for a while.
Rather than the oft repeated 'taking emotion out' I would say that they 'take fundamentals out' so distorting a market.
apad

[redartbmud] 14/12/2017 21:41

Algorithmic trading (automated trading, black-box trading, or simply algo-trading) is the process of using computers programmed to follow a defined set of instructions for placing a trade in order to generate profits at a speed and frequency that is impossible for a human trader. The defined sets of rules are based on timing, price, quantity or any mathematical model. Apart from profit opportunities for the trader, algo-trading makes markets more liquid and makes trading more systematic by ruling out emotional human impacts on trading activities.

red

[apad] 14/12/2017 19:03

ps
To be fair to myself, I have read some stuff about 'algos' but I got the impression that they were written by people who didn't understand what they were pontificating about.

[apad] 14/12/2017 17:48

The volume of trades in BOO is, it seems to me, astronomical. 13+ million today (cf FEVR 360,000).
The more I puzzle about it the more I am drawn to the price being trapped by algorithmic trades. Has Carol Kane's sale put shares into the market so that the algorithms can resonate I wonder.
However, I haven't read anything about how AT trades can distort a market, so I am probably being naive.
apad

[apad] 14/12/2017 17:20

Fortunately not, red.

I looked at it very carefully back in the day.
Couldn't see why it could outflank the established players in a huge market.
Thought I had missed the boat at one stage, but scaredy cat rarely goes back.

:-)

apad

[homebrewruss] 14/12/2017 17:08

DIA ticker seems appropriate :)

[redartbmud] 14/12/2017 16:53

Three Thorpe's for the price of one :-)

Were you an intended seller of Dia? If so, commiserations.

red

[apad] 14/12/2017 16:41

Nice family firm like Thorpe, I reckon, red.

apad

[redartbmud] 14/12/2017 16:36

Oops

Doesn't look good. Where are the internal controls?

red

[apad] 14/12/2017 16:32

ZOO now in profit. Two playful puppies.
apad

[apad] 14/12/2017 16:10

DIA - ouch! Left that 'till the afternoon.
apad

[attrader] 14/12/2017 15:47

Cool, I'll start off with monthly share price summary on this forum.. Other metrics I was thinking are ... Revenue growth Gross Margin Net margin Enterprise value Market cap Net debt Return on capital employed % owned by directors Free cash flow Free cash flow yield Number of open jobs Relative performance chart for each portfolio Ability to sort entries by metrics above I might not be able to work on above as it can consume a lot of time .. however i would really like to see it in action :)

[apad] 14/12/2017 15:18

Seems fine to me. Were you thinking off metrics in addition to share price? Don't mind really.
I'd like a monthly summary on this board in addition to an on-line portal.
You decide what's a roulette wheel stock - should be obvious from the rationale.
FWIW I think drugs in Stage III trials with results coming out (e.g. FARN and IMM) and disruptive stocks (e.g. ZOO) aren't roulette wheel stocks. But it is a subjective judgement.
I like the idea of a rationale - it'll deter numptys.
apad

[attrader] 14/12/2017 14:37

Looking at posts above, I propose following for next year 'comparison'- 5 stocks from anywhere in the world - Must be owned - No roulette wheel stocks - Provide brief rationale for each pick Please let me know what you think, and I'll iterate on above.. Also, I am thinking about putting together an online portal to share the results. What metric would you like to see ?

[apad] 14/12/2017 13:41

Folks could say what their criteria are? e.g. safety, growth, income, woteva.
apad

[redartbmud] 14/12/2017 11:40

janeann/APAD

Thanks.

My top 5 by value currently Lloy, Rsw, Spx, Bdev, Ng.
No particular order.
Not sure how that fits in.

If we just pick our top 5 as they stand, it could just be a lottey based on history.

Bdev and Ng. are long term portfolio holdings. I sold around a third of Ng. when they did the share adjustment. I still didn't sell enough.
Bdev is a brilliant recovery play bought in the tough times for house builders. I have dithered over selling some for a while, but we don't have anywhere near enough houses in the UK and they are throwing off oodles of cash at present.
Lloyds has to come right at some point, but maybe not in my lifetime. Shares bought well below 50p have not been too bad an investment hus far.

red

[apad] 14/12/2017 11:25

Maybe the divi idea isn't any good.

Grouping like with like is probably a decent goal. So, if all entries were UK except for one that was all US we wouldn't learn much.
However, I'm not that fussed as long as they are companies that are owned (that's our USP).

BOO really is a rubber ball. Pity one can't filter out the AT trades.

apad

[janeann] 14/12/2017 11:21

red no idea; nothing untoward that I am aware of. does move easily on small volume.

[redartbmud] 14/12/2017 11:06

. Server error. Sorry.

red

[redartbmud] 14/12/2017 11:06

attrader

Maybe time to set parameters and allow time for contemplation.

janeann

What is going on at Arc. A little out of sorts at present.

red

PS
I realise now that retired accountants do not make the best stock pickers :-(

r

[janeann] 14/12/2017 10:57

well if I am allowed I may stick with current 5; but only 2 pay a dividend. may change 1 but not certain yet.

[apad] 14/12/2017 10:49

Your call attrader. Don't see why not, as long as they are owned.
I like my two 'largest holdings' & 'recent purchases', but I'm not sure having two entries is that informative.
One doesn't learn much from roulette wheel O&G explorers either. Maybe, only companies that pay a divi, however small?
Post the criteria and folks can comment - then you decide.

I did wonder if I should also run an Investment Trust portfolio, but I wouldn't know how to choose :-)

apad