Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 21/12/2017 17:08

2017 Competition 31-Jan 28-Feb 31-Mar 29-Apr 01-Jun 30-Jun 31-Jul 31-Aug 29-Sep 31-Oct 01-Dec 21-Dec

Average 5% 12% 13% 18% 22% 19% 25% 28% 28% 29% 28% 30%

Dibbs (RBG/WJG/PTSG/G4M/TAP) 15% 24% 30% 35% 38% 48% 58% 74% 84% 80% 80% 74%
homebrewruss (KAZ/HMI/SOU/FDEV/PVG) 13% 23% 13% 20% 10% 11% 24% 61% 48% 47% 69% 71%
Mozy123 (CARD/HAT/BVIC/GAW/SUS) 6% 9% 15% 19% 20% 24% 35% 42% 52% 60% 56% 69%
apad top five (FEVR/BOO/RSW/ABC/BVXP) 8% 16% 23% 31% 46% 46% 60% 73% 73% 67% 64% 69%
apad recent (PTSG/QTX/IGG/BVXP/DOTD) 1% 15% 19% 21% 31% 28% 31% 44% 54% 54% 66% 65%
RP19 (PTSG/WJG/G4M/HSP/SPRP) 8% 20% 21% 28% 41% 46% 48% 61% 67% 64% 60% 62%
janeann (ARC/ACSO/PRSM/SPE/ZTF) 6% 13% 18% 28% 41% 26% 31% 43% 45% 67% 68% 57%
Linhur (RSW/BREE/GHH/FSJ/LTG) 11% 14% 16% 24% 32% 26% 32% 34% 41% 48% 48% 51%
Lauders (BVXP/COA/FFWD/FENR/HOC) 12% 11% 14% 24% 31% 28% 37% 34% 37% 39% 44% 51%
Dacian (BVXP/TPG/JOG/NTQ/QP) 5% 25% 40% 47% 42% 40% 34% 42% 29% 51% 45% 48%
Fozzie (SPRP/CTEC/UAI/IGG/UKOG) -1% 0% -1% 10% 7% 10% 91% 102% 105% 55% 33% 39%
Peters spouse (ESP/JIM/RGL/TSTL/WJG) 5% 13% 14% 19% 26% 27% 35% 44% 40% 51% 40% 38%
Valhamos (ABDP/DOTD/KNOS/PHTM/ZAM) -1% 3% 7% 9% 9% 6% 9% 5% 8% 18% 30% 36%
Piedro (TSTL/SRT/OCN/CAM/MGNS) 3% 7% 11% 17% 26% 23% 26% 29% 32% 36% 34% 31%
Prince7652 (NFC/AMS/GBG/JHD/NUM) 4% 9% 9% 19% 22% 18% 22% 25% 22% 33% 27% 30%
Attrader (DMGT/IGG/BVXP/IHG/ROR 2% 4% 6% 9% 13% 10% 12% 14% 25% 24% 23% 28%
Cragside (AAZ/JOG/RQIH/SOU/W7L) 0% 25% 24% 29% 39% 31% 16% 27% -2% 23% 20% 26%
Tudes100 (LAM/SUS/ CLG/BVXP/ETO) -1% 3% 11% 9% 13% 9% 10% 14% 21% 18% 20% 23%
Hydrus (BVXP/EAH/G4M/SAT/PVG ) 21% 30% 24% 25% 29% 20% 22% 26% 27% 18% 14% 19%
DiscoDave (AHT/ENQ/RBG/G4M/IGG) 7% 13% 5% 5% 8% 0% 12% 13% 19% 15% 10% 15%
che7win (IDP/GMS/OSB/IAE/CAKE) 3% 6% 10% 20% 33% 31% 32% 27% 21% 18% 12% 12%
Rjmahan (SIHL/PIL/DCI/RMA) -2% 0% -3% -4% 1% -3% 6% 6% 10% 12% 10% 8%
tlst (SUS/CRAW/DOM/ULVR/RB) -5% -1% 1% 9% 11% 8% 2% 1% -3% -5% -7% -7%
Iomax99 (PAYS/CVSG/PVG/VANL/MCS) 6% 17% 10% ------ 16% 7% 9% 8% -3% -2% -10% -10%
Felix99 (IGG/HUR/PRV/VEC/DGB) 2% 5% 5% 8% 3% -7% -7% -10% -12% -16% -19% -14%
Redartbmud (LLOY/CLLN/GNK/NANO/GHH) 0% 2% 2% 1% 9% 4% -11% -18% -17% -19% -22% -20%
PJ1 (TRD/TST/SPE/PEL/SDI) -1% 10% 8% 13% 5% -1% 0% -6% -11% -15% -20% -22%
Haywards26 (CLLN/HGM/BLVN/WTG/REDS) 15% 18% 18% 13% 4% -6% -20% -18% -15% -15% -25% -23%

[valhamos] 21/12/2017 16:37

DOTD will be one of my five for 2018; still one or two gaps to fill in terms of the other places.

[apad] 21/12/2017 16:34

Big sells in FFX.
apad

[janeann] 21/12/2017 16:21

dotd picked as 1 of sharemags picks for 2018.

[rp19] 21/12/2017 16:18

Happy with sty takeover but as per above poster don't think the premium was at a particularly excessive price. Frees up some funds for opportunities in the new year.

[ggbarabajagal] 21/12/2017 15:27

IDP




Watch the guy. THIS LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO ROCKETT



HE wants to make it a ONE BILLION DOLLAR BIZ

[apad] 21/12/2017 15:27

Swapped some more SOU for FARN.

apad

[ashehzi] 21/12/2017 14:59

Once set of all 05 stocks are collated, are we going to trace their prices somewhere online? I am not sure about the other columns but two must be there:

1. Price on 2nd Jan 2018
2. Change In Price Since 2nd Jan 2018

Also, this can be kept LIVE being updated every second and shared with all interested. For this I suggest, google sheets and using googlefinance() function; accessible anywhere everywhere with live prices and performance. This will be beneficial to all interested.

Sorry if this is being done already. If yes, please share the link. Thanks.

[apad] 21/12/2017 14:03

"FairFX, the e-banking and international payments group, is pleased to announce that Mastercard has granted FairFX full membership status. This gives FairFX a licence to issue Mastercard branded cards, initially across Europe but with other regions to follow."

apad

[apad] 21/12/2017 13:51

Ellis criticisms of VANL, red.

“why is the company reporting ‘underlying217; profit now as opposed to statutory profit last year?... I suspect the management team is seeking to hide weak performance by excluding the cost of problem jobs from their report figures” and “I have also noted that the current board quotes a ‘voluntaryR17; staff turnover figure of 10% (which is very high in itself). The specific wording concerns me since it allows the management to hide the true turnover figure. What is total staff turnover and why has the company chosen to be selective in its disclosure? This is indicative of a broader malaise infecting this board”.

“Why are margins in rail and other sub-divisions reducing in an expanding market?... Why has Rail had three divisional directors in 12 months?... Why does the company retain £7.4m on its balance sheet when there are various opportunities out there, some of which have now been missed?... Is there any substance in the allegations made in the Daily Telegraph about preferential treatment of directors’ debts?”

From the Share Prophets website,
apad

[attrader] 21/12/2017 13:11

Thanks Matt, will add you in

[mattjos] 21/12/2017 11:22

fwiw, here are my five:

AAZ, STAR, STCM, SYM, WTI

I hold all five. They are all turnaround plays but, do have growth stories attaching.

The AAZ thread is my own and there is more than enough there for anyone interested to research to the nth degree.
STAR has some persuasive tracking technology and I believe will reach a point in 2018 where recurring revenues cover their costs. The business model looks very appealing & so too the potential for rapid scale-up.
STCM is simply far too cheap and looks a perfect takeover target in the acquisitive global cement market. A unique dry-line operation in Kaz.
SYM is a long term serial underperformer but, now has a strong major investor (Somerston) with a seat on the board and they are turning this company from a lifestyle operation into a solid business. Looks likely to pay a maiden divi next year. Strong marketing/branding and big distribution pipeline in place to push new products. Strong Bed'n'Isa activity by Directors this year.
WTI is probably the riskiest one but, Orion seem strongly persuaded of the opportunity and the recent acquisition of Katumba from a reluctant but forced seller (Intrepid Mines) looks transformational. Highly leveraged to copper price so a mining play on EV adoption.
AAZ, SYM & STCM seem possible to pay maiden divis next year.

[redartbmud] 21/12/2017 10:28

Hold Persimmon, Barratt Dev and Inter Cont Air.
Not sure that they will be in my picks for the 2018 exercise.
At present, I am struggling to find 5 from my holdings that are worthy of an entry.

red

[lancasterbomber] 21/12/2017 10:14

Janeann
Not such a big premium when you consider it was higher just over a year ago

[janeann] 21/12/2017 09:25

well done Lancaster; I spent a while day trading it one summer as it seemed to have incredible volatility. Gave up and no longer hold unfortunately. Saw the announcement this am - haven't read all of it but why such a huge prenmium?

[lancasterbomber] 21/12/2017 09:10

Well good start for me with my biggest holding Styles and Wood STY being taken over

[apad] 21/12/2017 09:03

Tintins are all restating IQE's own upbeat story in their own words, red.

What else can they do without technical sector expertise?

It might even be correct - I just don't buy it.

Cynically yours,
apad

ps
The Comparison precis' are very interesting.

[hydrus] 21/12/2017 08:54

Sumo listed today. I wrote this just now on the board:'Interested in others views but from a quick read of the admission document it's not appealing to me. They were loss making in 2016 and that's despite a circa £5m benefit from video game tax relief. Also they seem to be planning (if I've understood this correctly) to pay off about £29m of debt but they have more than £50m if borrowings so they will still have interest costs.Where would they be without the tax relief?!'Happy to hear others views on Sumo as I may have misunderstood or missed something important. It looks like quite a low margin business to me and the revenue growth isn't sufficient to calm my concerns.

[gsbmba99] 21/12/2017 08:45

Att - MAB put all their investor presentations on their website (sadly no recordings despite request). 1H17 - You want page 22 which lists B2C and B2B competitors such as London & Country, Alexander Hall, John Charcol and Lighthouse Financial to name a few. My impression was ULS was mostly (if not exclusively) conveyancing. MAB benefits any time a mortgage is issued by one of their advisers which can be a re-mortgage, a home mover, a first time buyer or buy to let. Margins somewhat reliant on mix of first time buyers as higher proportion of insurance products for FTBs. There isn't a requirement for a housing transaction for MAB to make money. Re-mortgaging is an important and (probably?) relatively stable source of revenue because of the relatively high proportion of borrowers on short-term deals. Large parts of the market have to remortgage every 1, 3 or 5 years because of the (typically punitive) imposition of the SVR after deal end. In the US, for instance, remortgaging only occurs in interest rate decline cycles because the standard product is a 30 year fixed rate mortgage.

[attrader] 21/12/2017 08:27

Gsb, Interesting thoughts on MAB. Who are their main competitors? Is there an overlap with what ULS Tech is doing?

[gsbmba99] 21/12/2017 07:39

MAB1 isn't really a mortgage business. It's really more like a pipeline business or a toll road or a platform business that expands at 15% with virtually no capex. MAB provides access to a panel of lenders, access to a panel of insurance providers, the software to run the business (incl CRM), and the compliance function to ensure mortgages are not missold. They keep about 25% of the fees (a bit more for insurance) with the rest passed to the adviser. Mortagage advice is compulsory for 70%+ of mortgages. MAB seeks to grow advisers by 15% per annum which should lead to 15% rev growth in a flat mortgage market. MAB earns 0.4% mortgage procuration fee (gross; 0.1% net) for new mortgages and a bit less than that for re-mortgaging. They represent about 4% of the market. Larger advisers get better terms (net revenue margin: revenue less commissions paid/revenue epxected to decline) but since only the compliance function scales with volume, they expect net income margin stable to increasing over time. Many of the advisers are embedded at estate agents and they get referrals from PURP. If you compare net income to net revenue (ie net profit on MAB's share of revenue) it's actually wildly profitable (about 50%). The somewhat muted net income margin is because MAB receives payment first before passing the bulk of the payment to the adviser.

[gsbmba99] 21/12/2017 07:22

Further thoughts on PAM. It's a retail focused asset manager that distributes almost exclusively through IFAs. They have a bit of a niche in the "income" category and within that in multi-asset funds. From the admission document (pdf page 17): "The IA has identified multi-asset and income funds as long term beneficiaries of changes in the UK pensions and retirement market and AUM invested in the multi-asset market in the UK has grown by a CAGR of 20.2 per cent. over the past 10 years." For reference, 1.202^10-1=529%. Every quarter since fiscal Q313 has seen positive net new money. The distribution platform is powerful with >£500m of gross sales in each of last four quarters. Unfortunately, net sales over that period "only" £746m. The fact that a surprisingly large proportion of their customers are in pre-RDR funds means that revenue and costs are distorted. Net management fee (after payment of trail commission): £27.6m (FY15), £33.3m (FY16), £40.9m (FY17). Costs (excl. trail commission): £20m (FY15), £22.8m (FY16), £26.6m (FY17). Op margin (% net revenue excl trail commission): 27.5% (FY15), 31.5% (FY16), 35% (FY17). That's 750bps of additional margin created through net revenue rising faster than net costs. Because it's retail oriented, I can track progress through the fund fact sheets (which represent 94% of corporate AuM). AuM increased at 13/23 funds in Jun, 19/24 in Jul, 17/23 in Aug, 16/23 in Sep, 22/23 in Oct and 16/23 in Nov despite most of the funds paying dividends very regularly (sometimes monthly). AuM movement: -£8.4m (Jun), £120.1m (Jul), £75.6m (Aug), £68.5m (Sep), £181.3m (Oct) and £48.5m (Nov). The multi-asset series of funds were £2.884bn as at May and were £3.225bn as at Nov. Valuation not nearly as cheap as it was so return may be down to EPS growth.