Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[modform] 23/4/2017 10:14

Apad, I am quite relaxed about BOO even with the nose bleed rating they have, I guess one becomes relaxed when the percentage of gain is so large, but I think the organic growth slow down will drive my decision to dispose, we shall see...

[lauders] 23/4/2017 10:08

You should be fine with BOO Apad! Reasons:

1) The company is followed closely and any dips are bought quickly.
2) The chart is a thing of "beauty", even the drop to the lows is starting to look like a minor blip! Wasn't at the time!
3) I sold all my holding LOL. Intended to keep the free half after taking my profits are the 120p area (oh dear!) but decided to add to my HOC holding!

Good luck on Wednesday. I am sure I will regret selling my free shares even more, unless gold and silver take-off that is ;-)

[apad] 23/4/2017 09:32

red

WEIR giving us some news on Thursday perhaps.
Frackers are active, so there may be something encouraging for them to say.
Definitely one to read between the lines.
Do you think I am being overly concerned about the new management?
I shall get very twitchy if they try to do something new!

Anyway, all will be overshadowed by Boo-Wednesday.
I'd wear a frock if I thought it would suit a 6'3" ex Second Row Forward.

apad

[apad] 23/4/2017 09:01

Hi h,
I have a first holding in FFX. I was put off for a long time by the ease with which competition can arise and the potential of the big institutions to crush small fry.
I'm much less bovered by these issues now.
Big bankers are making too much profit from the service so will be most reluctant to cut costs.
As with all low entry businesses it is market visibility that is essential and whilst companies try to gain this they bleed money. Try setting up a specialist website - my daughters did and they gave up after two years hard labour.
FFX say they will be cashflow positive in 2017, so they have done the hard yards.
Their common platform serves a number of variants in the market, so there is more than one string to their bow.
They have a terrific reputation for service and value (not necessarily the cheapest, but very good value). This type of reputation drives an increase in customers on its own. I became a user because a friend uses them and a moment on the internet confirms a recommendation.
I do not understand the new banking license purchase, nor do I seek to for a while.
The CEO uses remarkably straightforward language and addresses issues
I was most amused by the so-called Dragons Den session at the Investment Show
I am looking to learn more and increase my holding, so I will be interested in your view of the FY results. I shall be looking carefully at organic growth rates.
apad

[homebrewruss] 22/4/2017 22:55

Hi APAD, I've just started doing some research on FFX, mainly via a video from the UK investor show.

I've also just discovered all my colleagues in our London office have started using one of the newer kids on the block, Monzo:
It does seem to me like this could be a big growth area.

FFX have been around for a while, have decent recurring revenues and the CEO thinks the potential market is massive so perhaps there is room to co-exist with others. Do you see they have anything else in particular that makes them more likely to thrive versus others?

[apad] 22/4/2017 16:29

ps
RB. showered me with gold for Durex. Bless 'em.

[redartbmud] 22/4/2017 15:35

jeff

C(r)apita.
Have you ever tried dealing with the Registrar side of the business?
I rest my brief(s) - on thr chair.

red

[apad] 22/4/2017 15:28

Hi jeff :-)

From my point of view it's a great problem to have.

I just don't see it as a PER type of problem - 'cos that's all accountancy valuation.

I see it as a brand valuation problem, and I have absolutely no idea how to deal with it!

Hey ho.

apad

[jeffian] 22/4/2017 13:00

Hi, I'm a lurker and watcher here.

Re: FEVR, I didn't take up the IPO because I thought it was too expensive. Doh! However, my penny's worth now is that, once a wonder growth-stock achieves a very high PER, new investors need to be very aware that they are buying future growth and that as the company matures and growth rates normalise, the PER will revert to norm, so one can see a period of share price underperformance even when forecast revenue and profit growth is being achieved. The classic example I always use is Capita (CPI), which in the early days of outsourcing was seeing years of compound revenue/profit growth of 50%+ and at one stage its shares traded on a PER around 150x. Despite those stellar figures, the share price stagnated for years as the PER normalised. It trades today on 10x 'underlying' eps. As a rule-of-thumb I use a mean average for the market around 14x PER and assume that all stocks will revert to that at some point. FEVR currently trades on over 66x last reported earnings. I must admit that I don't know the forecasts, but buyers today are inherently assuming (and paying for) profits around 5x the current level in the foreseeable future.

That's me penny's worth. I'll get back in me box.

[lauders] 22/4/2017 09:44

News hopefully due next week Apad! I think they have a lot to share & whether correct or incorrect there is a lot of "buzz" around social media circles. I really hope there will be news next week anyway and we will see the way forward more clearly ;-) Nice to see such an obliging CEO! Wish forward's was so approachable! Will have to look at FFX.

[apad] 22/4/2017 09:36

FWIW I reckon your FENR type investments are a decent strategy, niche companies that are well managed and surviving a downturn, rather than frenetic high st. punts.

apad

ps
What has propelled QuicklyBackward forward :-)

[lauders] 22/4/2017 09:11

Noted PP's comments Apad. Since he knows the retail sector well made me pay more attention. Still thinking about my long term buy and hold then enjoy the income company and none the nearer on deciding. BVXP would be good if I was happy with such a limited number of staff. What happens if our CEO has some unfortunate accident or something? Like the income though!

[apad] 22/4/2017 08:57

Read Paul Scott for the positive view on NXT, L.
Says they have short leases so can manage a high st. exit (hexit?).
I looked at it and decided their website was like a view of a store selling everything from flowers to furniture.

My view is that the on-line world on general purpose stuff has been won by the Amazon model, but there are niche opportunities for specialists with a great brand, like BOO.

So, rejected Next for my daughter's ISAs.

FWIW.

Big I've also seen hi-promise shares collapse (especially in the dot.com boom days). FEVR is an inspired roll out of innovative luxury mixers. The risk, to me is not hi-lited by the likes of Britvic (tired old brands), but by the need to repeat it's UK success in the US and Europe. In my view to last two results were (relatively) disappointing in this respect, but the UK carried on in overdrive. At the moment Britvic and FEVR are both 'valued' at about £1.8billion, but iff (if and only if) the US market thrives FEVR will accelerate away. FEVR are selling the idea of their 'dark' mixers as a spearhead.
Soooo, what I will be looking for is signs that this strategy is failing, not numerical valuations.
apad

[lauders] 22/4/2017 08:31

If you want to talk "value" would you consider NXT a contender? Good yield, price almost 50% off its highs & pays special dividends. Will it suffer owing to the likes of BOO or will it intensify its online presence to compensate? Must be OK as an income holding at least?

[big7ime] 22/4/2017 08:08

2bn for a niche drinks co cannot be called the early days for however long it's been listed
Ive seen similar stars fall 70% in a day when it ends
Just my view
Well done to have ridden it thus far

[apad] 22/4/2017 07:34

FEVR may well be overvalued and burn out like a shooting star.
The last time I succumbed to such a view was when I doubled my money on ARM in the very early days!
These days I ride the bronco for as long as possible.
Remember that governments are printing money like mad and that 'investments' are made in bonds that guarantee a loss in money over, say, a two year period. Makes the notion of Value very distorted.
apad
ps
Lovely morning and the weather due to turn cold on Tuesday.

[petersinthemarket] 21/4/2017 19:22

Dacian - I also have a starting tranche in NTQ, which looks very promising. As a closet chart watcher I note the regular bounce between upper and lower trend lines, as I'm sure you do, but let's not tell anyone else. I will be adding again shortly after the bounce confirms on lower trend. If you are buying pls leave some for me!

Lazy JSG chart is making a bit of an effort today. Slow, but very pleasing.

Seems to be a feeling from some EMH contributors, and an alleged company email today, that the recent TU only succeeded in confusing, confounding and worrying holders (true, inc me). The BoD are believed to intend to attempt to rectify things by better explaining the potential business position at a public meet next week.

DIS taking an expensive mini-breather today. Knocks a mini-lump off my pf but should be temporary damage. I believe this stock still has further to go this year.

PTSG still looking very strong. Lots more to come.
Have a good weekend all.
pete

[apad] 21/4/2017 15:58

Oops, repeating myself.
"Don't you know who I am?"
"Don't worry dear the nurse will be along in a moment, she will let you know."
apad

[sherylchan] 21/4/2017 15:53

modform - re TRD - concur cheap on valuation grounds, reckon a big seller/s around