Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[pooroldboy55] 11/6/2019 11:24

Agree Paul ,its also another good opportunity for HBM to dump more .Have you noticed price seems always to drop on or just after O trades ?
Edit 12.50 since i wrote that the opposite seems to have happened .

[polaris] 11/6/2019 10:41

There were less than 100k of trades above 82.5 yesterday and the 84 was a spike in the auction. This morning, the auction also uncrossed at 84...for a pitiful number of shares. I'd expect to see it settle back at the 80ish level until some further news flow.

[pooroldboy55] 11/6/2019 09:40

Flash in the pan yesterday ?

[base7] 10/6/2019 17:24

If HBM have changed their view on Vec now James has gone they only need to buy just under 200k to have declare their holding above 5%.
Perhaps today is a sign that we may now get some bang for our bucks ?

[best1467] 10/6/2019 17:11

Let’s see what happens next few days but the market is giving thumbs up today will be interesting to see if HBM continue to offload or are they behind this news today .

[cityfarmer] 10/6/2019 16:57

Well JWL off on less than 3 weeks’ notice (my cleaner has to give me longer than that) can only view as shove out of the door by the Board and surely they must have some potential candidates lined up? Equally if anyone was looking to make a bid (not saying that there is) the door is now wide open …..

[justiceforthemany] 10/6/2019 16:52

Closed well above the 20 and 200 day moving averages.

[jimboyce] 10/6/2019 16:36

Just musing, but if a takeover was being considered, perhaps Lilley may have seen the writing on the wall for him, and went now rather that after a takeover. He probably will go with a lucrative golden goodbye as well.

[polaris] 10/6/2019 16:34

It comes down to this:

Two companies had a combined value of £1Bn, merged and three years later are valued by the market at £500M. VEC are running the £500M in 'value' through the accounts, leading to 'losses'. No, it's just that the shareholder value has been destroyed.

Had the two companies remained separate entities then maybe the total value of the two would also be £500M now, due to various events. However, there would be none of this carrying value BS from the acquisition and the underlying value of each from the day-to-day business operations would be clear.

It's just two columns in a spreadsheet. Just write them down against each other and move on. Clear it all out.

With some luck, this will be the first job of a new CEO. It's an opportunity to throw the kitchen sink into write-downs and move ahead with a clean slate.

edit
Random auction and UT at the end of the day...84p. It's either that or the market has really given a FO, not even a PFO, to the out-going CEO.

[justiceforthemany] 10/6/2019 16:30

I got the feeling Lilley as CEO was blocking a takeover and found advances and potential offers/rumours 'unwelcome and 'unhelpful'.. Perhaps another reason why he has left/resigned?
Sosei rumour, GSK 175p/share and others...

[polaris] 10/6/2019 16:24

boadicea - totally agree.

The Motley Fool article from last week (post 8551) made a lot of VEC reaching breakeven in 2020. It's been EBITDA positive since the merger and it is the intangibles and goodwill writedowns that lead to the headline losses, which do not reflect the solidity of the underlying business.

VEC fails in all the major tables (snapshot cursory glances IMO that are very shallow metrics) for new investors because of the stonking 'losses' reported.

I'd like to see how a 'loss-making' company can grow cash reserves as VEC have, while funding a £15M share buyback, a full R&D programme and litigation proceedings. No share issue, no rights issue, no cash call, no debt. It can only be coming from the on-going business, which must be profitable. It's not rocket science.

The strange thing is that VEC will still probably report a small 'loss' for 2019, even if GSK do not appeal the current IP judgement. The fact that the cash reserves will be up to £180M+ from £108M will just go under the radar. The only way VEC makes a 'profit' is if there are punitive damages and court sets royalties to pre-2016 level with no cap. That would raise cash to over £200M, yet the headline numbers will be VEC makes a small profit...LOL :-o

Sometimes accountancy practises are madness by in-adequately attributing value to the on-going concern. Instead the figures are warped by writing-off carrying value from historical events, non-cash items.

Strip this balance sheet guff out and the 'hidden' value is apparent.

[boadicea] 10/6/2019 15:19

I cannot see that very much will change in the short term. The progress of medical trials, approvals etc is largely in the hands of independent parties and out of immediate company control.
The question of possible friction between HBM and the departing MD seems an unlikely scenario to me as a cause of HBM's disinvestment. I think that would be a too passive and potentially expensive way of expressing disapproval. However, I am surprised that HBM have not found a more constructive way of managing their disengagement.

At current interest rates, the cash generating ability of VEC is hardly dependent on its cash pile. Hence it looks sensible for VEC to make an open offer to repurchase a large block of equity in the hope of providing HBM with the opportunity of a quick exit at a guaranteed price. Pitching the price around the current level so that relatively few current holders would opt for the exit could, with excess take-up allowed, achieve this provided that HBM played ball by offering all their shares. After all, the evidence points to HBM being happy to sell at current prices which most of us are not! The company might need to make soundings in this respect.

Subsequently, a court application to write off its notional accumulated deficit against other reserves could transform the bottom line at a stroke and with it, the perception of the company financial performance - at least to the unsophisticated investor. Accountancy smoke and mirrors of course, but having a significant affect on the position awarded in various analytical tables of eps, roce, etc.

[polaris] 10/6/2019 14:46

@Bandy nerves - read. Start with SKP and VEC annual reports 2014 and read them all to 2018. Look at the presentations from conferences to see how the timelines changed over time. Then follow up anything interesting via partner sites and general internet searches. If things are still unclear/obscure, call IR. My knowledge comes from many years of following SKP and VEC. There are no short-cuts.

[justiceforthemany] 10/6/2019 10:37

100K buy just gone through.

[justiceforthemany] 10/6/2019 10:01

If it was a personal issue with the CEO/his vision then yes HBM may stop selling now.

[diesel] 10/6/2019 09:36

Could it be that HBM will put a hold on their selling until they see who is appointed, bearing in mind there is value here that is not reflected in the current share price

[insideryou] 10/6/2019 09:18

Sold half my holdings above 80. Unsure about this. Happy to buy higher with more clarity

[insideryou] 10/6/2019 09:03

Buy bot at 300shares?

[insideryou] 10/6/2019 09:02

Why the rise? On the back of this? Any ideas other than the usual contarían paradox?

[cumnor] 10/6/2019 08:51

His statement is terse, no glowing praise lavished on the BOD, CFO standing in or the Chairman. Unusual.

[cumnor] 10/6/2019 08:49

Board have finally woken up. Not before time.

[polaris] 10/6/2019 08:46

Looks like he was pushed with the detail of the announcement. Board coup? He thanks the employees but very little else. SP hasn't reacted negatively so far...

[diesel] 10/6/2019 08:39

They've talked up his performance, as you'd expect, but really! Successful integration of SKP, now both companies worth half their previous value. Performance of Vec this year? Err. The share buyback at a price all of us would like to see. This very sudden departure has the hallmarks of an exasperated board. There is a feeling that there is little imagination on how to grow this business given that they have a considerable cash pile. Then there is the biggest shareholder selling out/down and continuing despite the outcome of the US court case!